Herald poll breaks Warren trend: Brown up 4 : (

[TroyD]

Not a reason to panic of course, since Warren has still been ahead in 4 of the last 5 polls, but perhaps a reminder that Brown is not out yet and hard work remains to be done.

9/20/12 6:18 AM EDT

U.S. Sen. Scott Brown has moved into a narrow lead over rival Elizabeth Warren while his standing among Massachusetts voters has improved despite a year-long Democratic assault, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows.

The GOP incumbent is beating Warren by a 50-44 percent margin among registered Bay State voters, a turnaround from the last UMass Lowell/Herald poll nine months ago that had the Democratic challenger leading by seven points. Among likely voters, Brown is leading the Harvard Law professor by a 49-45 percent margin, just within the poll’s 5.3 percent margin of error. ...

Brown is now viewed favorably by 57 percent of registered voters, up nine points from a UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll conducted in Dec. 2011. Brown’s unfavorable rating actually has dropped six points to 29 percent. He is also drawing 22 percent of voters who say they will vote for President Obama.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/herald-poll-breaks-trend-brown-up-136090.html

http://bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1061161664&position=1

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. That was a quick turnaround

[gkhouston]

4. Especially the drop in unfavorables. Seems unlikely. n/t

[Blue Yorker]

2. Boston Herald endorses McCain (12/20/2007) Boston Herald endorses Bush (2004)

Caution is advised regarding anything coming out of this conservative rag.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-12-20-1691093152_x.htm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1251258/posts

[TroyD]

5. We should keep an eye on them, but they do have Obama +23

So it's not as if their numbers for Obama are off. Those numbers are bang on what other Obama polls in MA have shown.

Warren does have a 69% chance of winning in Nate Silver's current projection, but he's probably going to have to take it down a few points because of this poll.

[onehandle]

3. GOTV and it won't matter. Vote downticket, 2008 Obama Voters. nt

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. A Herald poll? A Herald poll?

Where was it taken - in their editorial board room?

The Herald is a filthy RW rag, for those unaware of that fact.

[TroyD]

7. As I said above, they have Obama +23

So unless they are fixing the results of the Warren-Brown poll, their findings are still plausible. (but hopefully an outlier compared with the 4 other polls).

Btw, tonight is the First Debate between Warren & Brown.

Tune in to cbsboston.com for Live Streaming or watch it on C-Span to support Elizabeth!

[Blue Yorker]

8. They have Obama +23 because they can't fake that

Faking a close poll is easier than a Presidential poll in Massachussets, so much easier that some DU'ers are buying it.
Sometimes Republicans win Senate races in Massachussets. Faking polls in that category is more feasible.

What is the likelihood of 4 outliers vs. one outlier? I wouldn't bet on that.

[TroyD]

11. Good point

I'm just saying we should be cautious and not assume the race is in the bag. We need to campaign hard for Warren right up until Nov 6.

Make sure to tune in tonight for Warren's first debate with Brown. I just posted a thread with a Warren campaign poster about the first debate.

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Read the comments under the Herald's lead story

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20120919umassherald_poll_brown_pulling_ahead_of_warren/srvc=home&position=0

That filthy rag caters to nothing but knuckledraggers and other bottom feeders.

And Jon Keller is moderating the debate tonight - he's a well known RW bumkisser of the first order. Watch for Keller to coddle Scott Brown with kid gloves.

[Blue Yorker]

10. The Herald could have hired SurveyUSA

But hiring a conservative college (UMass of Lowell) was more likely to tell them what they wanted.

[WI_DEM]

12. as you say 4/5 polls is good...

besides I'm hoping that all those people who vote for Obama will decide in the votiing booth that they will just vote the straight Democratic ticket and if they do--Warren will be carried along over the finish line.

[fugop]

13. It helps to undersamPle Dems by 10%

Diary about this on Daily Kos said the sample was 28% Dem, vs. the Mass. general population with 38% Dems.

[Blaukraut]

15. Yup, here are the numbers

Sept. 13-17, 2012

RVs by party – Unleaned: D 28% of RVs, I 56%, R 12%
Leaned: D 55% of RVs, I 8%, R 36%
LVs by party – Unleaned: D 28% of LVs, I 56%, R 11%
Leaned: D 56% of LVs, I 7%, R 36%

Dec. 1-6, 2011

Party breaks – Unleaned: D 33% of sample, I 50%, R 12%
Leaned: D 56% of sample, I 11%, R 32%

[fujiyama]

14. It's important to keep in mind

that polls may jump around from now to election day.

And we already knew this would be a competitive race. It's a presidential election year in a very blue state. I still give Warren the edge.