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NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Arlene
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contentsI have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting
career. Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical
depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical
storm. This intensity estimate is based on the cloud pattern
presentation on satellite imagery which shows moderate thunderstorm
activity surrounding an eye-type feature, and a convective ring in
microwave imagery. Initial intensity is set at 40 kt, although
estimates from TAFB suggest that the winds could have reached 45 kt
around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the cloud pattern has deteriorated
somewhat and winds probably have diminished. Despite the
intensification, Arlene is still forecast by all global models to
become absorbed by a nearby developing extratropical cyclone on
Friday.
career. Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical
depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical
storm. This intensity estimate is based on the cloud pattern
presentation on satellite imagery which shows moderate thunderstorm
activity surrounding an eye-type feature, and a convective ring in
microwave imagery. Initial intensity is set at 40 kt, although
estimates from TAFB suggest that the winds could have reached 45 kt
around 1800 UTC. Since that time, the cloud pattern has deteriorated
somewhat and winds probably have diminished. Despite the
intensification, Arlene is still forecast by all global models to
become absorbed by a nearby developing extratropical cyclone on
Friday.
Read this discussion at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al01/al012017.discus.006.shtml?
Updated discussions at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/202032.shtml?
