Science
Related: About this forumGlobal Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half
A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed warming pause has virtually disappeared.
Obtaining the globally averaged temperature from weather station data has a well-known problem: there are some gaps in the data, especially in the polar regions and in parts of Africa. As long as the regions not covered warm up like the rest of the world, that does not change the global temperature curve.
But errors in global temperature trends arise if these areas evolve differently from the global mean. Thats been the case over the last 15 years in the Arctic, which has warmed exceptionally fast, as shown by satellite and reanalysis data and by the massive sea ice loss there. This problem was analysed for the first time by Rasmus in 2008 at RealClimate, and it was later confirmed by other authors in the scientific literature.
The Arctic hole is the main reason for the difference between the NASA GISS data and the other two data sets of near-surface temperature, HadCRUT and NOAA. I have always preferred the GISS data because NASA fills the data gaps by interpolation from the edges, which is certainly better than not filling them at all.
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http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-1997-underestimated-by-half/
immoderate
(20,885 posts)Since they are ideologically driven, they cannot apprehend this, but they will feel obliged to rationalize it, and that will be fun.
--imm
n2doc
(47,953 posts)Ignoring similar 'slow' periods in the recent past. Plus I am sure they will say that this is a statistical artifact (if they have enough knowledge to be dangerous).
It's called global warming for a reason. Australia on track for its warmest year ever.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/10/australia-warmest-ever-calendar-year
immoderate
(20,885 posts)One of them was taunting me about there being no hurricanes in Florida this year, while Haiyan was roaring through the Philippines!
--imm