Impact Risk Hiked for 400-Meter-Wide Asteroid – NASA

[dipsydoodle]

MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – NASA has upgraded the impact risk for a massive asteroid recently discovered by Ukrainian observers that will pass close to the Earth in 2032, although a collision remains unlikely.

According to an update on NASA’s Near Earth Object Program site, the impact risk is now 1 in 9,090; up from 1 in 63,000 at the time the asteroid, identified as 2013 TV135, was discovered.

However, the updated figures still mean that the chance of the asteroid completing a safe flyby is 99.989 percent, slightly down from 99.992 percent in the original estimate.

The 400-meter-wide asteroid, discovered by an observatory in Ukraine’s Crimea earlier this month, is one of two asteroids to currently rank above zero on the 10-degree Torino Scale, which estimates asteroid impact hazards.

http://en.ria.ru/science/20131024/184333044/Impact-Risk-Hiked-for-400-Meter-Wide-Asteroid--NASA.html

[Xipe Totec]

1. The risk is now slightly higher than the risk of Palin saying something intelligent. nt

[FiveGoodMen]

3. All risks are higher than that.

[longship]

2. Beautifully explained today by the Bad Astronomer.

Astronomer Dr. Phil Plait explained this today in his Bad Astronomy Blog.

No worries, Mate! Don't Panic.

[johnd83]

4. From an engineering perspective 1 in 10,000 is actually pretty high

If your car had a 1 in 10,000 chance of exploding randomly without cause it would be a big deal. A 400 m wide asteroid impacting would be catastrophic enough that 1 in 10,000 is worth being concerned about.

[jeff47]

5. It comes down to how it's calculated

A large chunk of the probability is based on the ratio of the size of the Earth to the size of the blob where the asteroid may be at the time of the impact. As they nail down the path of the asteroid, that blob shrinks, making the odds go up - the ratio of the blob to the Earth went down.

As long as the Earth is inside the blob. If the blob shrinks to the point where the Earth is not in the blob, the odds suddenly plummet.

We only have about 2 weeks worth of data for this asteroid's path. So the blob is still very large, and thus encompases the Earth. All that's happened in the last week is the blob shrunk a little.

Doesn't mean we should ignore it, but it also means it's not a worry yet.

[Scuba]

6. There are two variables in calculating risk: The probability that something will (or won't) happen..

.... and the consequences.




While the risk of this asteroid hitting our planet is low, the consequences would be dire.

[jakeXT]

7. So it's roughly down from straight flush to four of a kind (double that)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability