Can we trust religious polls?

[rug]

By Robert Wuthnow
Robert Wuthnow is the Gerhard R. Andlinger '52 Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for the Study of Religion at Princeton University. He is the author of numerous books on American culture and religion
October 1st 2015

Polls about religion have become regular features in modern media. They cast arguments about God and the Bible and about spirituality and participation in congregations very differently from the ones of preachers and prophets earlier in our nation’s history. They invite readers and viewers to assume that because a poll was done, it was done accurately. They produce a veritable flood of information purporting to tell what the typical American thinks and what the hypothetical person believes and does. Flooded with such information, the temptation may be to accept it without further thought — or to regard it with mild highbrow disdain.

And yet, despite having more polling information than anyone possibly wants or needs, polling companies continue to reel out numbers and percentages, and news media long accustomed to thinking that numbers and percentages are news continue to publicize the results. This is happening despite increasingly serious difficulties in conducting polls and producing valid results. Not only are large majorities of the public skeptical of poll results, they are also unwilling to answer when pollsters call, leaving the reported results in danger of missed and unanticipated errors.

The time has come when we must ask ourselves a critical question: can these religious polls be trusted? Take a look at our infographic below, which shows an example from a recent poll that wasn’t exactly as it seemed.



http://blog.oup.com/2015/10/trust-religious-polls-america/

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Which should mean all the people in the 1st group but not the 2nd were sexually active

(assuming that everyone counted as evangelical in the 2nd poll also qualified in the 1st).

1st poll: 20% of a quarter of the unmarried public in their 20s were 'evangelical' and not sexually active, ie 5%
2nd poll: 56% of 10% of the unmarried public in their 20s were 'evangelical' and not sexually active, ie 5.6%

So all those inactive people came from the 2nd group. All the others were getting it.

[rug]

2. Personally, I think they're all lying.

Never trust a poll about sex.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. turns out "were sexually active" means "have had sex at least once in their life"

New research from the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) shows that the number of unmarried evangelicals ages 18-29 who have been sexually active is much lower than previously thought.[1] Fifty-six percent of unmarried evangelical Millennials claim they have never been sexually active. At the same time, one in four say they have been sexually active in the past three months, while 19 percent have been sexually active previously but not within the past three months. Sexual activity was not specifically defined for this poll.

http://nae.net/most-unmarried-evangelical-millennials-have-never-had-sex/

[rug]

4. Well, in that set, it may be true.