Anybody who doubts a great QB makes all the difference

[BlueStreak]

Before the playoffs started, I think most people would agree the top QBs in the league are

P. Manning
Brady
Breese
Luck
Rodgers (but not this year with his injuries)
Newton

And the next tier would be:
Kaepernick
E. Manning (but not this year)
Wilson and a few others

Look who the 8 QBs are in the remaining games. It is all the top QBs. The only possible exception is San Diego with Phillip Rivers. But I have always felt he was close to the top, and has a knack of getting into hot streaks, like Flacco and Foles.

In today's game, it is all about the QBs. Both Luck and Brady have lost a long list of receivers this year, yet they have made it this far. And there are teams that have a lot more to work with than Peyton has in Denver.

[pipi_k]

1. The dynamics

of a team are fascinating to see.

In addition to a great QB, there's also the great fortune of having a HOF coach.

Even a guy who could be one of the greatest QBs of all time might not be so great if he's got a lousy coaching staff behind him.

It's that "right fit", and sometimes the stars align and the universe comes together and you get true greatness.

We've been so lucky to have seen what must be some of the greatest football ever.

[BlueStreak]

2. I agree. A mediocre coach gets the team nowhere

Look where the Lions are headed. Caldwell is the definition of mediocre. But ironically he is actually pretty good with QBs, so it might be a net gain in this case because Stafford has definitely been an under-performer.

And then I look at the plays they are calling for Cam Newton. That is criminal. This is a guy who has the potential to be one of the 4 best pocket quarterbacks in the league, and they are running plays that will ruin this guy's career -- get him killed. I get letting Kaepernick scamper to the sidelines 6 times a game. He doesn't take very many hits. But running Newton right up the middle on DESIGNED plays? That coach should be shot. Keep that up and Newton will end up like RGIII.

[JonLP24]

3. I'd put Kaepernick and Wilson in the same class as Luck

They both have had better numbers than him last 2 seasons, especially Wilson. Russell Wilson has probably been the most consistent QB after Peyton Manning the past 2 seasons.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/seasontype/2
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/year/2012/seasontype/2

I don't know where to put Foles who is playing at an insane level but it has only been one season. Rivers has had several seasons playing at an elite level he fell off last season but he is back, his numbers are one of the best all-time so I consider him a top QB.

[BlueStreak]

4. Not even close.

In 2012, Newton set a new record for productivity the first 2 years of a QB's career, demolishing all the previous records. And in 2013, Luck demolished Newton's 2-year start. Those other guys are nowhere near that level.

Luck has more come-from-behind 4th quarter wins than Kaepernick and Wilson COMBINED.

Luck has far less to work with than either of those other two. You put an average NFL starting QB on either the 49ers or Seahawks and they still make the playoffs. You put that same QB on the Colts roster and they go 4-12.

Wilson and Kaepernick are above average, but nowhere near the level of either Luck or Newton. They are in the pack with Romo, Rivers, Flacco, Ryan, and Cutler. Better than dime-a-dozen, but not all that special. Newton is special, but he probably won't least 5 years the way they are using him.

[JonLP24]

5. Do you mean total yardage?

Newton's was more impressive because he did it on fewer attempts than Luck.

Wilson is in the top 5 in yards per pass attempt in back-to-back years and has about a 2 1/2 - 1 TD to INT ratio.

Comparing QBs based on volume stats is misleading because of attempts, Luck attempted 160 more throws and gained a little over 400 more yards.

[BlueStreak]

6. Both Yardage and TDs.

I agree it is hard to compare across teams. Clearly Carolina has a stronger team across the board. The Colts started with basically nothing in 2012 and are only halfway through a rebuilding process in 2013. There are loads of positions where they are clearly sub-standard. That means that Luck had to do more. But he did more.

I wouldn't try to rank Luck and Newton. They are both very, very good passers, and they can both do good things with their legs. Newton is the more athletic runner, but Luck is more evasive in the pocket -- he extends plays and rarely runs for yardage himself. Two different styles. Two different problems for defenses.

They are both far above any of the other QBs from the younger generation (Kaepernick, Wilson, Dalton, RGIII, Stafford, etc). The gap is so large that is isn't even an interesting discussion. The gap could close in the future, of course.

[JonLP24]

7. With teams such as San Francisco & Seattle

They run the ball a lot more but for Wilson to match Luck in yardage with the same number of pass attempts he'd just need about 4 yards per attempt. His YPA comes out to 4,700 if he had the same number but generally the more passes a QB attempts it drops which makes Manning's YPA mark even more impressive since he also leads the league in pass attempts. But the reason why they have fewer yards and TDs is because the teams run more often.

Patrick Peterson said that Russell Wilson is the toughest scrambling QB to defend because he isn't looking to run you notice in highlights he often throws before he comes to the line of scrimmage.

It is easy to compare Newton to Luck with Passing. Newton gained 4,051 yards off of 517 attempts his first year. Luck had 570 attempts this season and gained about 3,800. I know his YPA was about 6.98 last season. Newton has a career average of 7.66

[BlueStreak]

8. There is no end to the comparisons. The Colts TRIED to run

All season long, Pagano had this vision that the Colts needed to be a power running game. During the first half of each of the first 12 games, he tried to run on first down almost every time -- and it almost never worked. Luck was facing passing sets continuously. It takes a lot more talent to put up the numbers under those circumstances than it does when you actually have a solid running game.

The Colts were behind at halftime in 13 games this year I think. That puts enormous pressure on the QB because the defense knows you have to eventually give up on the running game so they can start double-teaming receivers or run extra blitzers. Luck faced that continuously this season. Kaepernick and Wilson did not. They are secondary factors on their teams.. Good players, but a dozen other QBs could have won games with those teams.

[JonLP24]

9. The point I was making

is point to Luck's passing numbers and touchdowns and I was giving the reason why they don't - fewer attempts. But I don't see how Wilson can be downgraded, he is doing an excellent job with the attempts he has. I don't even care about Seattle's W-L record when looking at his numbers and those are pro bowl caliber numbers and he put them up in back-to-back seasons. It is like what can Wilson can possibly do? I don't think he should be penalized because he plays for a great team. It isn't like he is sucking he is putting up about as well numbers as you can put up with the pass attempts he has.

Colts are interesting, they outperformed their efficiency 2 years in a row. The don't have great passing or pass defense (per attempt) but still overcome it to win games.

On edit - as far as things to deal with Kaepernick and Wilson play in the toughest pass defense division in the NFL (Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle are top 10, St. Louis is dead last so I don't know how it affect their ranking if there were rankings for divisions with toughest defenses)

[BlueStreak]

10. The rest of the team really does matter

The Colts roster has sucked for 6 years. Polian kept giving all the money to Manning, one receiver, and one RB. He let the defense get really weak, putting about 70% of the money on offense.

It wasn't a story because Manning was just that good. He overcame those barriers and still won 12 games a season.

Every QB in the league can make throws. Look at Flacco last year. He isn't a H.O.F. QB, but when you have a good team around you, it makes it easier for the QB to get things done. And especially when there is a decent running game, that punishes the defense, giving the QB bigger windows to throw into by the 4th quarter.

Neither Manning nor Luck have had that luxury because they have had ZERO running game and a very substandard defense. This year Colts defense was 20th in yards / game and 9ths in points allowed. By contrast, Seattle was best in points allowed and 49ers were 3rd. The QB just isn't as important in those systems. I'm not saying those guys are bad. They are just not remarkably better than a lot of other guys, IMHO. But either of those guys behind center on the roster the Colts fielded this year and they get nowhere close to the playoffs.

But, that's just my opinion.

[JonLP24]

11. Flacco never averaged over 8 yards per attempt in a season

He never came close, he never even broke 7.5 yards per attempt. You have to have a pretty damn good year to do that and Wilson did that and got 7.9 last year. There is a reason why Flacco is Flacco which is because he doesn't put up numbers like that.

[BlueStreak]

12. Seattle was 26th in passing yardage

They were 4th in rushing yardage. When you can get a lot of 2nd-and-3 plays, the defense has to play BOTH pass and run, and that make it a whole lot easier to get 10-yard passing plays.

Again, if you put Wilson on a team like the Colts that was 20th in passing yards, rarely having a 2nd-and-3 to work with, and he would look a lot more like most QBs in the league.

I'll certainly give him credit for having a great season, doing what the QB needs to do in that system. But I'm not ready to call him a top 8 QB in the league. I'd have to put all these guys in front of him: Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Newton, Luck and probably a couple of these guys based on their career body of work (E. Manning, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Rivers)

[JonLP24]

13. It certainly does (BTW Wilson was responsible for 539 of those yards)

but it is hard to say what someone would do or wouldn't do when we can't see.

On the point of Kaepernick, San Francisco runs a lot of 1WR2RB2TE sets which isn't favorable for passing especially when Boldin was their main wideout with Crabtree out. I say this as a huge Arizona and Boldin fan he is not a burner so he did have that as a challenge and still had respectable numbers.

I'm not sure where I would rank them either. I pretty much say Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodger, then everyone else.