Why Kaepernick Is Right Pick

[JonLP24]

San Francisco 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh had a difficult decision, and I think he made the right choice by starting Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith. If Kaepernick’s two recent starts are any indication, he has turned what might have already been the best team in the N.F.C. into a prohibitive Super Bowl favorite.

Despite the small sample size, Kaepernick has clearly outplayed Smith this season. Smith has been at his career peak this season, averaging 5.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), compared with a career average of just 4.3 YPA. Kaepernick has averaged 7.4 AYPA this season and has averaged 8.8 AYPA in his two starting opportunities. Those two starts were against the league’s very best and very worst pass defenses: the Bears, who allow only 2.9 AYPA, and the Saints, who allow 6.5 AYPA. Kaepernick actually did better against the Bears.

Kaepernick brings a dimension to the 49ers’ passing game that Smith hasn’t shown. Kaepernick has confidence in his deep reads, while Smith tends to look for receivers on shorter patterns. Kaepernick is fourth in the N.F.L. with 24 percent of his passes attempts to deep routes, classified as greater than 15 yards downfield. This season, only 14 percent of Smith’s passes were deep ones, which ranks 36th in the league. Together with his mobility, Kaepernick’s threat to throw deep makes things difficult for defenses.

I’m not suggesting Kaepernick will continue playing at such a high level for the rest of the season. His first two starts went so well that he’s bound to regress. But even if his efficiency falls to around the midpoint between his season average and Smith’s, that still represents a considerable improvement. Every yard of passing efficiency translates into about a 10 percent difference in the chances of beating a league-average opponent, making Kaepernick a significant upgrade in the race for home field in the playoffs.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/week-13-n-f-l-game-probabilities-why-kaepernick-is-right-pick/

[Auggie]

1. New England and Seattle will be the ultimate test, IMO.

Back-to-back road games against tough teams. And we have to see how teams will defend him given adequate preparation.

[Upton]

2. Kap is just dynamic...he does things Alex can only dream of

I thought this was a mistake at first, not going with Smith for the Saints game. I hadn't seen a whole lot of Kaepernick, and though he's built like Tom Brady and runs like Michael Vick, what I had seen wasn't overally impressive... but I should have realized Harbaugh looks at this guy everyday in practice..and being an ex QB, he knows what he needs at the position to take the 49ers where they want to go.

I'm not convinced Alex's days with SF are over, but I feel bad for him because he's been a loyal 49er.. The thing is, he had his opportunity last year..an NFC Championship game at home, goes 1-13 on 3rd down conversions and couldn't make the one play the 49ers needed late in the 4th and OT. I can't help thinking had the Kaepernick we're seeing been playing, the 49ers would have reached the Super Bowl, possibly rather easily. Harbaugh is thinking the same thing..

[Auggie]

3. Athleticism has never been a substitute for experience

That's why I want to see him play in New England, in weather, and against a division foe with a good defense on the road. If he can pass these two more challenges count me in as believer.

[Upton]

4. I'm not counting him as a right handed Steve Young yet..

and I probably would have been more comfortable with waiting on the change until next year, but Kap's performance in a loud dome last week was awfully impressive. Granted, the Saints don't have much of a defense, but he handled the noise like a veteran. Seattle will indeed be interesting.

I understand what you're saying, but now at least we've finally seen why the 49ers moved up to draft this guy..and the future looks great.

[Auggie]

5. He really does add another dimension

And as much flack as Harbaugh gets for being a douchebag, he's the right coach for this guy at the right time.

[El Supremo]

6. Have you read The Onion's piece?

[a href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/colin-kaepernick-admits-he-learned-nothing-from-wa,30548/"]Colin Kaepernick Admits He Learned Nothing From Watching Alex Smith Play Quarterback[/a]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/colin-kaepernick-admits-he-learned-nothing-from-wa,30548/

[Auggie]

7. ROFL!!!

That's so mean ... but funny as hell.

[joeybee12]

8. EVIL!

But hilarious!

[joeybee12]

9. Just had to kick it after yesterday's game!

[KamaAina]

10. That's gotta be right up there with "Detroit won't waste time in winning Series"

and "Dewey Defeats Truman".

[JonLP24]

11. Kick