Pac Man vs Bradley

[H2O Man]

Tomorrow night's big fight between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley should be interesting. While the "odds-makers" in Vegas favor Pacquiao by about 4-to-1, it's important to remember that these are gambling odds; while some sports writers report them, the boxing community rarely pays attention to them.

So what is important to consider as the bout approaches? I think there are three possible outcomes, and that some facts-plus-past history suggest any one of them could happen. Let's take a look.

Manny is 33 years old; Timothy is 28. In general, fighters this size tend to enter their primes at around 28, and begin to decline by 33. Bradley does appear to be reaching his prime, and Pac Man is certainly on the decline. Yet, it is hard to say that Bradley is good enough now, to be favored to beat a declining Pacquiao: we know how great Manny has been, and even in decline, he would destroy most top fighters from recent eras, while Bradley is still untested at this level.

Bradley stands 5' 6", a half-inch shorter than Manny. But his 69" reach provides a two-inch advantage. Although this appears pretty even, their comfort at the welterweight class definitely favors Pac Man. After a solid career in the lower weights, he would reach his prime as he moved up to welterweight. Bradley has primarily been a junior welterweight, and two years ago, when he tried the bigger division, he struggled to win. However, he was fighter a bigger, more experienced opponent who had a 29-0 record.

Pacquiao's prime was in three fights, between December of 2008 and November, 2009. First, he TKOed Oscar de la Hoya in 9 one-sided rounds; flattened Ricky Hatton in two rounds; and stopped a game Miguel Cotto in 12 rounds. Critics will point out that both de la Hoya and Hatten were shot fighters, and that Cotto was not mentally prepared, due to his loss to Margarito (with loaded hand wraps). But the fact is that Manny was devastating.

In his four fights since then, Manny has been taken the distance each time. This includes his "winning" a split-decision over Marquez last November. (In their previous bouts, they drew {2004}, and Manny won a controversial split-decision {2008}.) Since that last fight, Pacquiao has "found religion": he quite drinking, smoking, gambling, and womanizing, and has appointed himself as the minister of his training camp.

This could be related to his declining physical skills. He turned professional in 1995, almost ten years earlier than Bradley. And he has fought 353 rounds, compared to Bradley's 194. Add the punishment of overall tougher fights, plus training, plus his age, and it seems likely that he won't be fighting too much longer, even if he easily defeats Bradley. This combination of factors makes it difficult to imagine that Manny Pacquiao can be as "up" for this fight as is Timothy Bradley -- and that can be a significant factor in the ring.

Bradley knows this is his one big chance. That creates great pressure. But he has done very well in stressful circumstances. In 2008, he went to England to challenge champion Junior Witter in a bout that few expected him to win. Witter, 36-1-2, was a tall, hard-punching fighter in his prime. But Bradley beat him in his home town, even decking Witter in round five.

Three of his last four bouts were against undefeated fighters. He decisioned all three. Most recently, he knocked out fading Cuban star Joel Casamayor with body shots.

So, how might the fight between a 54 (38 KO) - 3 (2 KO) - 2 Pac Man and a 28 (12) - 0 Bradley go? First, Bradley frequently bobs-and-weaves, looking to put pressure on his opponent. The last guy who tried this against Manny was Ricky Hatton; Manny countered him with a vicious hook, that not only rendered Hatton unconscious, but ended his career. It seems likely that Freddie Roach will have worked on a plan to catch Bradley with a similar punch. If so, there is a real chance the fight could end in two rounds. (In April, '09, hard-punching Kendall Holt nailed Bradley with such a counter-punch, knocking him flat; Bradley did get up to win a decision.)

Another option would be for Pacquiao to be patient, and systematically wear Bradley down, winning either by decision or possibly late-round TKO. Pacquiao is still a great fighter, and is more used to "super fights" than is Bradley. More experienced fighters often take strong young opponents into the deeper waters in boxing.

The third outcome, which while perhaps not as likely, is that Bradley will out-hustle Pacquiao. This, too, is common in the fight game. Though not as fast as Pacquiao, Bradley has very impressive speed of both hand and foot. He is also known for "unintentional" butts, part of his craft that frequenntly opens cuts on the opposition. (Pac Man's last loss came in 2005, when he was cut by Eric Morales; the blood appeared to cause Manny to panic and and not fight his fight.)

ESPN's Dan Rafael is predicting that Bradley wins a close, upset decision. I have a lot of respect for Dan's knowledge of the sport. Plus, he has recently been in each fighter's training camp. Also, Tommy Hearns thinks Bradley is as capable of defeating Pacquiao, as Pac Man is of beating him. (Note: The "Hit Man" gets inducted into the IBHOF this weekend; look for my report early next week.)

Enjoy the fight!

[JonLP24]

1. Interesting analysis

Which would you say is the more likely option and if it is 2nd one which would you say is more likely of that - TKO, KO or Decision?

Thanks again for these previews.

[H2O Man]

2. Good question.

Yes, I think that #2 is "most likely."

Bradley -- unlike Mosley -- isn't going to fight to survive. His goal isn't to remain on his feet until that final bell. And, from his past bouts, we've seen that when he does get hurt, he doesn't back off. He tries to clear his head by knocking the opponent's off.

A number of good boxing writers have questioned if Pacquiao has begun to carry opponents. That's a fair question in the Mosley bout. But then again, Mosley was never knocked out. And against Manny, he was content to create distance between them, and clinch when Manny got close. It's hard, even for the great knockout artists, to take out a good opponent who is simply focused on lasting the distance. (Remember that people thought Mayweather had a chance of stopping Mosley, too. Didn't happen.)

The other fight these same writers mention was against Margarito. Manny had broken a bone in the bigger man's face, and put a lot of punishment on him. Could he have stopped him? I think the answer lies in the generally unreported fact that Manny was hospitalized for three days after that bout. While Margarito's face took a brutal beating, which was highly visible, Manny took vicious body shots -- which caused internal organ damage that the spectators couldn't see from ringside. (Note that in Mayweather's fights after Pac Man vs Margarito, he began throwing far, far more hard body shots against opponents. This is in preparation for a potential Pacquiao match. Also, both of Manny's knockout loses resulted from body punches.)

Still, Bradley comes in far too often with his head on one level, too often "forward and in the middle." This means at the classic boxing stance position, where your chest is the forward point of a triangle formed with you feet. He throws semi-wide punches in combination, and you can't do that without lifting your chin. An untucked chin, at Pacquiao's shoulder-level, is the point of the triangle that Pac Man can land his hardest shots, with either hand. Or both.

If Manny has as much left in the tank as I think he does, he should stop Bradley in the 11th or 12th. If he has less than that in the tank, he is in for a very rough night.

[H2O Man]

3. Also .....

When Bradley gets aggressive in forcing exchanges, he tends to square up. This also involves the frequent "chin up at shoulder-level" bit. And both he and Pacquiao like to throw the last shot(s) in almost every exchange.

He needs to keep that left foot out in front, and to tuck his chin into the left shoulder. That is essential. When the chin is not tucked, you are always vulnerable to the other man's power; if the chin is up and your feet are squared, you are most vulnerable. Against every opponent so far -- except when Holt almost KOed him -- Timothy has gotten away with it. But Manny has had great speed and timing, as well as the ability to anticipate his opponents' moves. That is why he has the level of punching power he does .... while Holt may actually be a harder puncher, Pac Man's delivery system makes him far more dangerous.

[H2O Man]

4. At lunch at

Graziano's, next to the International Boxing Hall of Fame, my youngest daughter, her boyfriend, and I ran into Marvelous Marvin Hagler. He ranks high among the best of his era, and at the peak of the middleweight champions of all eras.

He asked me to tell Rubin he said hi. Will do.

[H2O Man]

5. Bradley wins

a controversial split-decision: two judges had it 115 to 113 (7 rounds to 5) for Bradley, and the third had it 115-113 for Pacquiao.

[fishwax]

6. rematch in November, I guess

I didn't get to see the fight, but followed on a couple of liveblogs, both of which had Pacquiao winning (I think one was 115-113 and the other 116-112, though it may have been 117-111.) Oddly, the guy who had Pacquiao winning by a larger margin thought it was a great fight, while the guy who had it closer said it wasn't a great fight. Hard for me to say not having seen the fight, but were a lot of rounds close?

One of the bloggers also pointed out (more than once during the fight--he seemed to start suspecting in about round 8 that the decision might be surprising) that Nevada judges favor the more active/aggressive fighters, and said Bradley was more active even though he didn't land as many punches and (according to the blogger) didn't demonstrate impressive power.

I guess I'll check out the replay when it's available to see for myself.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

7. Me neither - I haven't been getting PPVs lately

Hopefully they'll replay it next week. I'm not a big fan of Compubox as it doesn't tell the whole story of the fight and it is subject to human error. I've tried to replay fights and count punches and I haven't always agreed with them. Watching a fight at home is admittedly different; you don't get a three-dimensional perspective and you don't hear the punches land the same way or see the sweat fly. But depending on the camera work, you can also pick up on things that may be hard to see at ringside, such as body punches when the fighters turn away, when they are on the other side of the ring, or when the ref gets in the way.

But Pacquiao supposedly landed nearly twice as many power punches as Bradley according to Compubox and outlanded Bradley in 10 of the 12 rounds. That's an overwhelmingly dominant performance, if true. If that's true, I cry for the sport that I love, as I'm starting to see more bad decisions than good ones nowadays.