African American
Related: About this forumSo far, black population of a state has allowed me to pick the primary winner 93.3% of the time
Last edited Tue May 17, 2016, 11:51 PM - Edit history (2)
Text cross-posted from GDP:
States already predicted will be folded into the model itself after next Tuesday for May contests, so some of the later states may change after next week.
Hypothesis: Simply by analyzing the percentage of a state's population that is black, I believe you can fairly accurately predict the "winner" of a state in upcoming primaries and caucuses. There will be misses, I am sure, but I'm bored, so let's see how this works out. I'll bump the thread and fill in actual results (With insightful commentary like, "Boy, that one was wrong!" as primaries go on...assuming people are interested in my validation or humiliation, as the case may be.
So let's begin with states that have already voted
Your key for numbers below:
State Rank for Black Pop. State % of Pop. that is Black
All numbers from 2010 Census
Bernie Wins
44 NH 1.22%
33 CO 4.28%
31 MN 4.57%
26 OK 7.96%
49 VT 0.87%
29 KS 6.15%
32 NE 4.50%
47 ME 1.03%
16 MI 14.24%
48 ID 0.95%
43 UT 1.27%
Avg Black Pop 4.28%
At +1 Standard Deviation 8.38%
Hillary Wins
40 IA 2.68%
23 NV 9.00%
5 SC 28.48%
6 AL 26.38%
12 AR 15.76%
3 GA 31.4%
25 MA 8.1%
10 TN 16.78%
18 TX 11.91%
9 VA 19.91%
2 LA 32.4%
1 MS 37.30%
11 FL 15.91%
14 IL 14.88%
19 MO 11.49%
7 NC 21.60%
17 OH 12.04%
35 AZ 4.16%
Avg Black Pop 17.79%
At -1 Standard Deviation 7.80%
Prediction Methodology: If a state's black population is less than Bernie's 1 St Dev number, I predict he wins. If it is more than Hillary's 1 St Dev number, I predict she wins.
So my straight up, no commentary predictions (Note: this isn't a prediction of margin of victory, just who comes out on top as the state's winner. I also do not include territories):
34 AK 4.27% Bernie Correct
38 HI 3.08% Bernie Correct
36 WA 3.74% Bernie Correct
30 WI 6.07% Bernie Correct
42 WY 1.29% Bernie Correct
13 NY 15.18% Hillary Correct
21 CT 10.34% Hillary Correct
8 DE 20.95% Hillary Correct
4 MD 30.1% Hillary Correct
20 PA 10.79% Hillary Correct
27 RI 7.5% Bernie Correct
22 IN 9.07% Hillary Sanders--Clinton won black vote by 52%
37 WV 3.58% Bernie Correct
24 KY 8.2% Hillary Correct
41 OR 2.01% Bernie Correct
28 CA 6.67% Bernie
50 MT 0.67% Bernie
15 NJ 14.46% Hillary
39 NM 2.97% Bernie
46 ND 1.08% Bernie
45 SD 1.14% Bernie
** DC 50.7% Hillary
Now there will be some misses here, because the two data sets overlap in the 2nd Standard Deviation (Mean+2*StDev vs Mean -2*StDev), so the question will become which states and in which direction. That said, misses should favor Hillary as her Standard Deviation is over twice as wide as Bernie's (Wider standard deviation means more variation in the numbers. In this case, wider Deviation means Clinton has been more successful among a wider variation in black population than Bernie).
JustAnotherGen
(31,869 posts)For others not aware - here's the first thread. . .
http://www.democraticunderground.com/118750119
OP - thank you again for contributing this OP> This is why I like hosting this group - we get real gems that we can read through without a lot of noise!
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)On a personal level, Ithink KY could easily go Bernie and California could go Clinton
But we'll let the model run as is and see how it holds up.
ismnotwasm
(41,999 posts)I'd like to see them directed toward policy when the primary smoke has cleared away.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is being seen as a very, very powerful voting bloc. Politicians need to be aware of not only that but making sure not to alienate black voters through their actions.
Coolest Ranger
(2,034 posts)that Hillary will take California.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is one of the two states I disagree with this model on.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Kind of Blue
(8,709 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)lovemydog
(11,833 posts)Thanks.
JustAnotherGen
(31,869 posts)I still think CA is going for SOS Clinton. I just do.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is just too big and too diverse, in my opinion, for this model to work there. I expect CA to be a miss in a few weeks.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)I'm curious about it too. Though I think it's safe to say it won't alter the huge lead Clinton enjoys and will have enjoyed from the very beginning to the very end of the primaries.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Absolutely amazing. Thank you again for doing this.
I agree also that Hillary will take CA. I've said it all along.
It would be v interesting to run this experiment with all POC.