Hello, AA group. A few not-quite-simple questions, if you wouldn't mind answering.

[Decoy of Fenris]

G'morning folks. I'm not often one to mince, but I want to give a brief explanation before I get to content.

Obviously, GD-P is a bit of a clusterfuck at the moment in relation to race and demographics. I tend to lurk more than post, but an odd question has come into my mind and it's one that I feel would best be asked here in the AA forum. The problem is, the questions I'm about to ask are, on their face, seemingly rather hostile and could potentially be seen dismissive. I want to go on record prior to getting deeply involved: Often, AA group members insist on people coming into this forum to be informed, to ask questions and to listen to AA voices in relation to race-related issues. If I sound like an offensive, ignorant twit, there's a good chance that you're right in your opinion, as I am woefully undereducated in almost all issues related to race. Please bear with me, as I'm here requesting to hopefully gain knowledge, not to sow discord.

That said, let's get this party started.


In light of this recent race-related primary nonsense, I often hear that it's impossible for Democratic candidates to win the GE without the support of the black vote. Given the demographic breakdown of the United States though, I fail to see how the black vote would be instrumental or not in relation to the GE outside of simple popular vote numbers, which could apply to any other demographic equally well. Is there any factual data or study to back this claim up, or am I misinterpreting that statement? My immediate guess is that I'm misunderstanding somehow, but I'd like clarification if anyone can give it.

Along the same vein, if the black vote -is- necessary in a Democratic victory in the GE, how does this apply in relation to the comparatively conservative South, where the majority of African Americans reside? I guess this question is more along the lines of "This demographic is predominantly in deep red states, how does this help Democrats win?"


Thanks for your time, patience and consideration, folks. I'll try to stick around (if you'd have me) for further discussion, but I tend to post only when my baby girl gives me free time. If I go absent on you, please forgive me, and I'll try to get back as soon as I can.

Thanks again.

-Decoy-

[bravenak]

1. Oh

[Decoy of Fenris]

2. Hey, Brave. o7

Look, I know I look like a shitter with a post like that, but I'm trying to be as civil as I can be with the ignorance I have to deal with. I'm trying to further understand a lot of shit in relation to race, but it's ridiculously hard to just "learn". I've been reading this group for a while now and I see the shit you guys have to deal with on a daily basis, so I get it if I get asked to delete and leave. I can respect that.

All that said, I'm asking for help understanding. Would you bear with me a bit?

[bravenak]

17. I'll try.

I am more better in pms cause I don't take them the wrong way and it's free discussion. I let most things slide in pms cause its private. People sometimes break my privacy but I never do it back, thats undignified.
This post is a doozy. I am going to say nothing this time. Best this way

[Decoy of Fenris]

19. Fair enough, and I've had most of my preconceived notions corrected downthread.

I thought about PMing you directly, or asking through your Ask thing, (I only know about it because of the kerfluffle with you on here a while back), but... Given the relatively hostile environment you have to deal with, I figured a PM sent out of the blue like that would only be asking for trouble or further hassling you. Thank you for understanding, at the very least.

Best regards. o7

[bravenak]

21. I accept pms freely even if we argue alot

It's fine

[Decoy of Fenris]

22. I'll keep that in mind. Thank you, Bravenak. n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. ...

You're right. The Black vote is irrelevant. Go with that.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. You win the Internet today!

I'm giving you a second heart!

[justhanginon]

7. He wins the internet a lot from what i've seen!

[Decoy of Fenris]

6. If I thought that, I wouldn't be looking for information to the contrary.

I get the snark, given the recent spat of people joining into the forum here just to raise hell, but while I can't prove anything to you, I'm here in good faith, 1SBM. I'm a dumb sonofabitch looking to learn more, and it's been said time and time again to come here to listen and learn in regards to matters of race and AA issues. You can think of my motives as you will (and you will do just that), but I'm trying to gain understanding of a woefully blind part of my knowledge base. Give a guy a bit of help?

[sheshe2]

14. Ouch

[Coolest Ranger]

5. and to add to the tone

just be disrespectful to us and tell us that we need to do our research.

[Decoy of Fenris]

8. I can't say I follow. Can you elaborate? n/t

[Coolest Ranger]

13. wow so let me get this straight

you come into the AA group, ask us to explain some things to us, then expect us to do the heavy lifting for you and then act ignorant when we don't give you what you want, wow, just. I need a drink

[Decoy of Fenris]

20. "Act" ignorant? I told you flat out I was ignorant. If I wasn't, I wouldn't be here.

Look, I know where you're coming from and I know exactly what my OP looks like. I'm not asking for anything other than what people are willing to give, and both of my upthread questions have been answered handily, and then some.

I know my weak points, and issues relating to race are many of them. I know that and admit to it. I'm sorry for disturbing you.

[JustAnotherGen]

9. Rbw's son

Thats more important. Did you see the post?

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. Actually ... your post should be directed to the thread starter. ...

Just saying ...

[wildeyed]

10. Go do math if you are interested.

It is not that hard to answer this question for yourself. Google is good. Ask Nate Silver. He knows.

[Decoy of Fenris]

11. Well that's the thing. I just ran the math and it doesn't really check out.

Not from an electoral perspective at any rate, and only marginally from a popular vote perspective. While the Hispanic voting demographic turnout falls shorter than the non-Hispanic black turnout by rate, they have a higher overall population that puts the Hispanic voting bloc higher, numerically, than non-Hispanic blacks. With the exceptions of 2008 and 2012, the non-Hispanic black turnout has almost never risen above 50% nationally in a general election in decades. Likewise, as I explained above, the general concentration of African Americans is in historically Red states, so from both a numeric and electoral perspective, I'm at a loss.

(On Edit: I only bring up the Hispanic vote because it's numerically the next closest demographic to the Black vote. Other minorities turnout, while significantly less, represent a relatively proportionally reduced overall potential voter pool.)

That's why I'm assuming it's something I'm missing, rather than raw numbers, which is why I'm here asking about it.

[JustAnotherGen]

12. Go to the top 20

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_African-American_population

[Decoy of Fenris]

18. Thank you for that, JustAnotherGen. Another useful tool that explains a fair bit.

Thanks for being civil with me, mate. It truly does mean a great deal to me. Took a lot of sweating to even consider posting my OP here, but despite some snark, I've already had a lot of my "knowledge" corrected. Thanks again.

[Decoy of Fenris]

16. See, this right here, -this- was what I was looking for.

It took you mentioning Silver's name to narrow my search enough.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/


And that right there is exactly what I needed. Even a 10% drop in the Black vote puts several states into play that would otherwise be solidly blue.


Thanks for the lack of snark, and genuine help. This tool is immensely useful, and your guidance to it (and Silver in general) is immeasurably helpful in understanding the role different race demographics play in politics and electioneering. Sincerely, thank you.

[wildeyed]

23. 10% drop in AA?

Maybe 5%, but not 10%. And figure that the white turnout drops a bit too, then basically nothing changes.

It would be AMAZING if we could get a 10% drop in white turnout while maintaining the AA percentages, don't you think! Look what happens to the electoral map then. Fix SO many problems. Oh well, the old and really conservative whites are dying off at a good clip (not something I wish for, but bound to happen), and AA and Latino population percentages are increasing, so might be possible within my lifetime. A girl can dream, right

[Decoy of Fenris]

24. Hell, even a 5% swap in college educated whites to Dems would change a lot.

This tool really does give a massive indication just how important demographics are, how important -every- group can be and how important it is that Democrats connect with and reach out to both the Black and Latino communities. I know that may seem like common sense to you, but I'm a numbers guy. Having the numbers right here in front of me, examining the potential damage or help any given variation can do, proves everything to me.

Well, demographics change, and I think we both can anticipate a huge, if gradual, shift in policies to better reflect minority (soon to be majority) groups in politics. Gods know that even as a white guy, I can say we've had a disproportionate amount of power for far too long.

Anyways, baby girl is up and crying, so I have to jet. Thanks for your kindness and for opening my eyes in a way I can understand; raw numbers and demonstrable evidence. I thank you from the bottom of my heart. If you ever need anything, just ask.

Take care. o7