The Levant braces for regional war

[unhappycamper]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK14Ak01.html




The Levant braces for regional war
Nov 14, 2012
By Victor Kotsev

Israel has embarked on open war preparations in the past several days, amid significant escalations of violence both in its south and in its north. On Monday, in the first such incident since the 1973 October war, Israeli tank fire destroyed part of a Syrian mortar battery which had fired shells across the border. Simultaneously over the weekend, Palestinian militants initiated an exchange which killed at least six and wounded dozens on both sides. Israeli ministers - including the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu - ominously warned of a ground operation in Gaza similar to "Operation Cast Lead" in 2008-2009.

On the one hand, a full-scale explosion may not yet be imminent. Most experts believe the Syrian fire to be errant rather than intentional, and Egypt is actively mediating a truce in Gaza. Much of Israel's posturing, on the other hand, appears to be defensive in character. Still, it is hard to avoid the sobering observation that the situation in much of the Levant today closely recalls that at the onset of several recent wars, or the conclusion that the next weeks and months will be fraught with tension and uncertainty.

~snip~

Today, the violence comes in the run-up to the January parliamentary election in Israel, and threatens to undermine Netanyahu's cherished security credentials. According to most analysts, the prime minister prefers quiet but may feel compelled to act. He is reportedly contemplating several scenarios, including a broader or a more limited land invasion as well as the targeted assassinations of top Hamas officials. As is his habit, he is holding his cards close to his chest.

~snip~

In all, the current round of violence may end, but it is part of a slow escalation over the past months, with substantial exchanges every two weeks or so. This time, Israel is sending strong signals that the pattern cannot continue. If it does, a land operation in Gaza, or even a wider, incredibly destructive regional war on several fronts could follow.

[leveymg]

1. War and threats of war favor the incumbent, peace not so much.

Miraculous timing, Bibi.