N.Korea Can Build Nuclear Warhead, USFK Chief Claims

[Expat in Korea]

Maybe more indirectly related to US domestic security, but a military issue, at least. What's going to happen when/if we become certain that the DPRK has fitted nukes on ICBM's? Then what?

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2014/10/27/2014102700983.html

N.Korea Can Build Nuclear Warhead, USFK Chief Claims
The commander of the U.S. Forces Korea on Friday claimed North Korea is capable of building a nuclear warhead but admitted that no tests of such a device have taken place.

"I believe they have the capability to miniaturize a device at this point and they have the technology to potentially deliver what they say they have," Gen. Curtis Scarparotti told reporters at the Pentagon.

"We've not seen it tested, and I don't think as a commander we can afford the luxury of believing perhaps they haven't gotten there," he added. "What I'm saying is ... that I think given their technological capabilities, the time that they've been working on this, that they probably have the capabilities to put this together."

Seoul phrased it more carefully. The North's ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons sufficiently to mount them on a missile "seems to have become almost real," a Defense Ministry official here said Sunday.

But until September, the ministry said that the chances were slim that the North has succeeded in making nuclear weapons weighing less than 1 ton.

It is unclear why Scarparotti decided to ramp up the rhetoric, though he may have had in mind his government's attempts to push South Korea into joining the U.S. missile defense program.

Experts here were unconvinced, though some said the general's guess was "reasonable."


◆ Conflicting Claims

Right after the North's third nuclear test in February last year, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported to Congress "with moderate confidence" that the North has nuclear weapons that can be delivered by ballistic missiles. "A nuclear weapon that can be delivered by a ballistic missile" means a nuclear weapon weighing less than 1 ton.

If the North has succeeded in reducing the weight of nuclear warhead to less than 1 ton, the most threatening weapons would be Scud and Rodong missiles. The Scud has a range of 300-800 km capable of hitting any target in the Korean Peninsula.

The Rodong has a range of 1,300 km which would allow it to hit Japan. It can only carry warhead weighing about 700 kg, but a shorter range could increase the payload.

"The Korean Peninsula is exposed to clear and present danger if the North succeeds in miniaturizing nuclear warhead to less than 1 ton," a member of a state-funded think tank here said.

◆ U.S. Pressure on Seoul?

But diplomatic sources in Seoul said Scarparotti was exaggerating.

"Seoul and Washington generally share the view that it's still too early for the North to have succeeded in miniaturizing its nuclear warhead," a government source said on condition of anonymity. "It seems that at every opportunity, U.S. regional commanders have talked about this," probably to pressure South Korea to join the U.S. missile defense shield.

A former senior foreign and security official speculated, "Seoul may be looking for justification for the recent agreement to postpone the handover" of full control of South Korean troops.

[e-mail] / Oct. 27, 2014 10:05 KST

[bemildred]

1. If they have not tested it, they cannot use it.

Nukes that don't work just get you exterminated before you try it again. At least the possibility that you know what you are doing is essential to being a nuclear power.

And we would know if they tested it. A nuke going off is always noticable, especially in N. Korea. Hence this is fund-raising PR, this stuff in the OP.

I think they are working of "government reform" up there in N. Korea anyway. Kim the 3rd is as perfect an example of the third-generation rule as I ever saw.

[Expat in Korea]

2. Seems like they've been testing the components

seperately already. Long-range missiles that they shot over Japan a few years back, then later used to allegedly put a satellite in orbit, short- and medium-range missile tests are pretty commonplace in the local news. And the nuke test last year was their third. I have no doubt that this story is largely a strategic statement, but it doesn't seem to be baseless, either. With all the basic components functional, the only question is miniaturization, and that's just a matter of time, seems. It would be a mistake to underestimate their progress, given how much of the national budget goes into their nuke program.

[bemildred]

3. The theory is well understood and public at this point.

The hard parts are

a.) the intrinsic difficulties in working with such materials and obtaining the necessary raw materials.
b.) working out a device architecture with the necessary precisision, for which you can resort to theft (popular) or engage in a lot of testing.

N. Korea's nukes are primarily intended to serve as deterrents to anybody wanting to change their kleptocratic government, thus it doesn't have to be real, it just has to be credible.

N. Korea in fact lacks the means to pursue aggressive warfare with any chance of success outside the peninsula.

We already know they can make a nuke. This is about making a nuke compact enough to put on a rocket (a SCUD one presumes or something similar). That would enhance their deterrent. But the fact is that their artillery coverage of Seoul is probably sufficient deterrent already.