Broken Windows--Not all they're cracked up to be (food for your Inner Nerd)

[Jackpine Radical]

Public and Private Spheres of Neighborhood Disorder
Assessing Pathways to Violence Using Large-scale Digital Records
Daniel Tumminelli O’Brien1,2?
Robert J. Sampson2
1Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
2Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Daniel Tumminelli O’Brien, Northeastern University, 1135 Tremont St. Boston, MA 02120, USA. Email: [e-mail]
Abstract

Objectives: “Broken windows” theory is an influential model of neighborhood change, but there is disagreement over whether public disorder leads to more serious crime. This article distinguishes between public and private disorder, arguing that large-scale administrative data provide new opportunities to examine broken windows theory and alternative models of neighborhood change.
Method: We apply an ecometric methodology to two databases from Boston: 1,000,000+ 911 dispatches and indicators of physical disorder from 200,000+ requests for nonemergency services. Both distinguish between disorder in public and private spaces. A cross-lag longitudinal analysis was conducted using two full years of data (2011–2012).

Results: The two databases provided six dimensions of physical and social disorder and crime. The cross-lag model revealed eight pathways by which one form of disorder or crime in 2011 predicted a significant increase in another in 2012. Although traditional interpretations of broken windows emphasize the role of public disorder, private conflict most strongly predicted future crime.

Conclusions: Our results describe a social escalation model where future disorder and crime emerge not from public cues but from private disorder within the community, demonstrating how “big data” from administrative records, when properly measured and interpreted, represent a growing resource for studying neighborhood change.

[NYC_SKP]

1. Will be published next month, I look forward to it. And, here's a link:

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-06/sp-ici060115.php

"Private conflict and public violence are likely to increase in severity over time, leading to the more consistent use of guns," commented O'Brien and Sampson. "Notably, this progression has been largely invisible to previous work because its primary antecedents occur behind closed doors, out of view of many measurement techniques."

The researchers speculated that people facing stressful conflicts with others may respond violently to issues within their community, neglect private property, and be less inclined to take a stand against neighborhood decline. Such examples of external disorder may also stress individuals in the community, intensifying conflicts within private lives.

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This study, "Public and private spheres of neighborhood disorder: Assessing pathways to violence using large-scale digital record", is featured in a special issue of Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, dedicated to the Broken Window Theory. For an embargoed copy of the article's full text, please email [e-mail].

Mike Maxfield, Editor, JRCD, commented, "The impact of "Broken Windows" on police practice and research cannot be overstated. Virtually every police officer, criminologist, big-city mayor, and journalist has some degree of familiarity with the concept. Increased attention to policing practices often points to the role of broken windows in crime control and police practice."