New Israel-Gaza war in the cards?

[bemildred]

TEL AVIV --Three days after the Jewish state took out a purported Hezbollah convoy heading toward the Israeli side of the Golan Heights, a knife-wielding Palestinian terrorist stabbed 12 morning commuters inside a bus in the heart of Tel Aviv, then quickly exited after seriously wounding at least four people. These two seemingly unrelated events may, in fact, be interconnected and could signal a coming Hamas rocket campaign if the major demands of Gaza’s globally isolated, cash-strapped Islamist rulers are not met in the near future.

The Tel Aviv bus assailant, identified as Hamza Mohammed Matrouk, 23, from the West Bank town of Tulkarem, has been largely depicted as a “lone wolf” responding to the ongoing Palestinian campaign of anti-Jewish incitement. While no doubt there can be incendiary acts like those of Matrouk that are inspired by the official Palestinian calls to violence, in this particular case there may be more than meets the Mideast eye.

Hamas immediately took to Twitter to praise Matrouk’s heinous carnage, calling the bus bloodshed "brave and heroic," while not officially claiming responsibility. According to Middle Eastern defense sources, Hamas surrogates may have dispatched Matrouk to signal to Iran and its proxy Hezbollah the continued commitment by Hamas to the path of jihad, as well as its willingness to do Tehran’s bidding in exchange for massive financial support.

The bus brutality came less than 24 hours after an Israeli official took the unusual step of recognizing his country was behind Sunday’s strike on a Hezbollah convoy near the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. The attack killed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Mohammed Allahdadi as well as a Hezbollah commander and the son of the group’s late military leader, Imad Mughniyeh. Hezbollah said six of its members died in the strike.

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/New-Israel-Gaza-war-in-the-cards-388881

[bemildred]

1. And this:

It is notable that the Gaza-based military commander of Hamas, Mohammed Dief, reportedly sent a condolence letter to Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, expressing sorrow for the deaths of those killed in the suspected Israeli airstrike and urging Hamas-Hezbollah unity. “All of the forces of resistance must band together and unite against the Zionist enemy and its accomplices,” wrote Dief.

[Jefferson23]

2. Interesting..it's been awhile but here is another suggestion Dief is alive.

Or did I miss something and we have confirmation?

I don't know, Nasrallah is still pretty much preoccupied with other troubles ( Syria )
and stretched pretty thin.

[bemildred]

3. I think he's probably alive, I don't think that's proof of it.

But it is interesting that after this long hiatus he comes up again.

I concur, Hezbollah is quite busy, I think they will bide their time. However, disorder is spreading, and there comes a point where all bets are off, so to speak, the crazies do what they like, the governments respond by going crazy too.

[Jefferson23]

4. Yea, we have no shortage of despair and crazy. n/t

[bemildred]

5. And the suggestion would be that he is in better health.

And more likely to have some influence with Nasrallah.

[Jefferson23]

6. Good point..if he is alive, he is making plans, reaching out..get your ducks in order, etc. n/t

[Igel]

7. Nothing's really changed.

No progress towards reconciliation or a compromise that would produce peace.

So of course another mini-war is in the cards. It's just a question of time.

There's just no present trigger, no immediate cause for hostilities. Things are status quo like they were before the other mini-wars, waiting for something to exacerbate the situation. Perhaps a killing of some Palestinian that can be spun sufficiently to trigger Hamasite violence, perhaps a kidnapping or some shelling that causes enough Israeli deaths to cause political outrage that politicians must assuage.

I keep waiting for there to be some sort of cooperation and coordination between the actors on the north and south borders of Israel. That would change the picture a bit.

[bemildred]

8. Yeah, I expect another war, but not this soon.

Hamas is trying, but Hezbollah is not that fond of Hamas and has its hands full already. If Iran and its minions manage to solidify Assads regime again and deal with ISIS, that might well change, esp. if Uncle Sugar appear ambivalent about jumping in too. I don't expect ISIS to do much, they seem to have a tacit agreement with the IDF to focus on other enemies (not each other) for now. And that last mess in Gaza is hardly cleaned up at all yet. Bombing rubble has a futility to it that is hard to disguise.

[azurnoir]

9. Interesting but then again nothing quite like planning ahead

[shaayecanaan]

10. amazing how history repeats itself

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicarii

[bemildred]

11. Fanatics are all the same, all subtlety lies in the middle ground.

They all want absolute control. The details vary, the rigidity is always the same. Sometimes I think they get addicted to their own anger, it gives them a rush. You know, guys like that dipshit that killed Trayvon Martin.

These knife assassins were the first suicide attackers. Emperors feared them. First guns, and then explosives have changed so much. (And then box-cutters.)

In the 11th Cent. you had the old man of the mountain and his assassins.

We have some pretty good assassin corps of our own running these days too.

Yeah, the Romans had no problem with a bit of ethnic cleansing, nevertheless we think highly of them for some reason. I think in the political sense they are vastly overrated. Size is not quality. But that is just me.

I remember when I was first introduced to American History learning that our founders were very fond of things Roman. At the time I though nothing of it. In retrospect it explains a lot.

[shaayecanaan]

13. I think an allegorical film about the Roman occupation of Judea would be an interesting take...

certainly the zealots would give Hamas a run for their money. They didnt just kill Roman soldiers, but Jews who liked the Romans too much. Then they retreated to a mountain and committed mass suicide, Jim Jones style.

The IDF still anoints its officers atop Masada. Irony abounds.

[oberliner]

14. Hamas does indeed possess a 1st century approach to things

Sad to know there are folks who have not yet learned to embrace a different way of life.

[shaayecanaan]

15. Its a pity that the Jews could not live peacefully alongside the Romans

the Romans had sewers and circuses and modern roads and great hats. If the Jews could only have learned to live peacefully as Roman citizens with full rights under the Republic, then Roman civilisation could have benefited Jews and Romans alike.

Standard warning for the irony-impaired. Yes, the above post is intended ironically.

[Ken Burch]

21. So does Netanyahu. He's no different than Hamas.

Both sides need better leaders. But war can't make that happen.

And Hamas wouldn't even exist if only the Israeli government had done the sane thing and negotiated with the PLO in the Eighties, when Arafat was still at the peak of his influence and fully prepared to negotiate.

They refused to do so because Arafat wouldn't recognize Israel before talks began(he would have done so as soon as the talks started, so there was no good reason for the Israelis to be sticklers on that point).

[bemildred]

16. Charleton Heston, savagely beaten in a loincloth, being crucified? I could go for that.

Well, it's an interesting notion of success, I will say that, but you can say the same thing about Christianity. But then that's the "transcendant" part, I suppose, wine to blood, defeat to heavenly grace, all that. God rewards loyalty.

Islam makes a lot more sense in some respects, it's simple and easy to understand, your obligations are clearly spelled out, and none of this puritan shit. Of course, people get ahold of it, any religion, any people (violent Buddhists for example) and it comes to look the same: dogma, hierarchy, pomp, and ritual. Lots of big shots mediating between you and the deity.

[shira]

12. The anti-Israel warmongering bigots are certainly licking their chops...

....and getting their rox off for yet another round of Israel = Baby Killer demonization, while simultaneously defending and/or supporting the fascists from Hamas for their "resistance".

[bemildred]

17. Hezbollah not interested in escalating violence, Israel says

Good.

Israel said on Thursday it received a message from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah that it was backing away from further violence, a day after the worst deadly clashes in years erupted along the border.

The Israel-Lebanon frontier, where two Israeli soldiers and a Spanish peacekeeper were killed in an exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel, appeared quiet early on Thursday.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said Israel had received a message from a U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon that Hezbollah was not interested in further escalation.

“Indeed, a message was received,” he said. “There are lines of coordination between us and Lebanon via UNIFIL (the U.N. force)and such a message was indeed received from Lebanon.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/hezbollah-not-interested-in-escalating-violence-israel-says/article22695799/

[Jefferson23]

18. Lieberman: Third war with Hezbollah, fourth with Hamas are inevitable

Vote for me, I'll get them all this time..I swear it.

In March 17 election, choice between Likud's Netanyahu and Labor's Herzog is a choice between 'populism' and 'naivete,' foreign minister says.

By Haaretz | Feb. 1, 2015 | 2:02 PM

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Sunday that Israel would inevitably have to fight a third war with Hezbollah and a fourth operation against Hamas.

He told Ynet, the website of the Israeli daily Yedioth Aharonoth, that Israel did not respond sharply enough to Hezbollah's anti-tank-missile attack on Wednesday, which killed two Israeli soldiers.

He said Israel decided to "contain this incident" rather than respond.

Lieberman's interview with Ynet followed similar harsh remarks he made on his Facebook page on Thursday. There, he called Israel's response a "serious blow to Israel's deterrence capabilities."

As for Hamas, he said assertions that the group's members are "begging and ... on their knees" are simply "stories." He said Hamas is rebuilding its arsenal every week.

And regarding the election, set for March 17, he touted his party, Yisrael Beiteinu, as the only force for "decisive action" in Israeli politics.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.640116

[Jefferson23]

19. Nasrallah’s fiery speech casts gloom over dialogue

Feb. 03, 2015 | 12:24 AM



Nasrallah’s fiery speech casts gloom over dialogue

Hussein Dakroub| The Daily Star

BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s fiery speech on new rules of engagement with Israel is likely to cast a pall of gloom over a fresh round of talks between the Future Movement and the resistance party set for Tuesday, Future officials said Monday. Meanwhile, France envoy Jean-Francois Girault arrived in Beirut as part of a French initiative aimed at breaking the 8-month-old presidential deadlock.

“Sayyed Nasrallah’s speech will not help the dialogue,” Future MP Ammar Houri told The Daily Star. “Instead of easing tensions in the country, Nasrallah opted to take Lebanon to the regional arena, that is, Iran, by imposing new rules of engagement with Israel.”

In addition to Nasrallah’s speech, Houri said the issue of celebratory gunfire, that “terrorized” the people in Beirut and its southern suburbs, fired by Hezbollah supporters before, during and after Friday’s speech, would definitely be brought up for discussion by the Future delegation.

Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk, one of three Future officials representing the movement in the dialogue with Hezbollah, said Tuesday’s meeting, the fifth round of talks between the two rival and influential parties, would be difficult following Nasrallah’s speech. “The Future delegation will frankly express its opinion in this speech. But what matters is that dialogue will continue despite its difficulty,” Machnouk said in remarks published by As-Safir newspaper Monday.

- See more at: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Feb-03/286199-nasrallahs-fiery-speech-casts-gloom-over-dialogue.ashx#sthash.lakzu6A2.dpuf

[Ken Burch]

20. Of course. Netanyahu hasn't killed all of them yet.

He won't stop 'til Gaza is Arabrein.