Iran: A Humiliating Defeat
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The government also revealed successful talks with former ally Hamas. Although they control Gaza and recently survived a 50 day war with Israel Hamas continues to have problem with an Iranian supported rival in Gaza. Islamic terrorist group Islamic Jihad is an Iran backed terror group that has long been opposed to Hamas rule in Gaza. Islamic Jihad has been threatening armed rebellion against Hamas because of perceived Hamas treason against Islam. Islamic Jihad gets away with this because it continues to take aid, and instructions, from Iran. Islamic Jihad takes credit for rocket attacks that violate Hamas ceasefire agreements with Israel. This aggression is believed Iran inspired and meant to goad Israel into attacking Gaza again. Such an attack would force Hamas to try to defend Gaza which would cause heavy Hamas casualties and make it easier for Islamic Jihad to oust Hamas by force. Many in Hamas see this as an effort by Iran to weaken Hamas, because Hamas began openly supporting the Syrian rebels in late 2013 and Iran was not pleased. That cost Hamas over a million dollars a month in Iranian cash and caused a lot of internal dissent. Some Hamas men have gone to Syria to fight against the rebels and Hamas was trying to work out some kind of deal that would allow them to maintain support from both Iran and the Sunni Arab oil states that fund and arm many of the Syrian rebels. Meanwhile Israel became so concerned about the continued activity of Islamic terrorists inside Gaza that senior Israeli military leaders were openly calling for Israel to resume control of Gaza. That would involve a lot of combat and there was never a lot of support for going that far, at least not yet. In the end there was a 50 day war with Hamas in July that caused such heavy damage that Hamas believes it can resume taking aid from Iran without losing the even larger amounts of aid it gets from Gulf oil states.
Iran still getting help from Russia in evading the banking sanctions. For example Russia has agreed to use Russian and Iranian currency for food imports and exports between the two nations. This gets around the banking sanctions and is, in effect barter between the two nations.
Pro-Iran businessmen in Syria and their counterparts in Iran agree (usually off the record) that the plunging oil price threatens the generous and critical Iranian financial support for the beleaguered Assad dictatorship in Syria. Even with continued Iranian military support, Assad really, really depends on the financial support to maintain the loyalty of the few (less than a third) of Syrians that support him. Because of that, and the damage ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has done to the rebel alliance (which has been fighting a civil war with itself for the last year) the war has been going better for the Assads lately. In southern and central Syria (south and north of Damascus), pro Assad forces have actually been regaining ground. Along the coast the army and pro-government militias have been able to expel rebels and form a continuous Assad controlled area reaching into central Syria and the capital (Damascus). Thanks to Iranian trainers, the pro-government militias are better trained and more effective as are the soldiers. All of these men are paid regularly and most see a better future than do many of the rebel fighters. The army is about half its pre-war strength of 300,000 but the remaining troops are loyal and most have combat experience. The army is expanding back to its pre-war strength. This is thanks to cash from Iran, because the Syrian economy is wrecked. But that Iranian cash has been reduced recently as the plunging price of oil. This has forced Iran to cut its cash support for the Syrian economy. Thus while the Assad forces can provide some security, they are increasingly unable to provide much prosperity and even necessities are not arriving as frequently. What remains of the Syrian economy is in Assad controlled areas where there is an unemployment rate of over 50 percent and the size of government handouts is a matter of life or death. Iran does not want its Syrian ally to be destroyed but subsidizing the Assad controlled population costs more than Iran can afford right now. Unless the price of oil moves sharply north and the economic sanctions on Iran (because of the Iranian nuclear program) are reduced the hard times will be getting harder in Syria for Assad supporters. Despite that living in Assad controlled territory is still a pretty good deal compared to what life is like in ISIL or al Nusra controlled areas.
Looking east Iran has a more favorable, but still complicated, situation. In its continuing effort to gain more influence in Afghanistan Iran recently agreed to extend (for six months) the visas of 450,000 Afghan refugees in Iran. There are over two million of these refugees in Iran, some of them from the 1980s war with the Russians. Most Iranians want the refugees gone as the refugee camps are a base (and source) for Afghan drug smugglers and other criminals. Much of the drug problem in Iran is because of Afghan drug smugglers and dealers. Iran has over two million drug addicts as a result. The Afghan refugees complain of persecution and discrimination, but still find it preferable to live in Iran rather than in Afghanistan. Iran takes advantage of this by offering free education in Iran and there are currently over 300,000 Afghans attending Iranian schools. All of the subjects are taught with a very pro-Iran vibe. Despite this goodwill gesture Iran has also banned Afghan refugees from nine provinces (Mazandaran, Gilan, Ardbil, East Azarbaijan, Kurdistan, Sistan and Baloochistan, and Gulistan) and may extend the ban. This is believed related to illegal activities so popular with Afghan refugees.
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20141223.aspx
