The Right won the popular vote
Last edited Thu Jan 24, 2013, 06:38 PM - Edit history (2)
The final results of the Israeli election can be seen here:-
http://www.knesset.gov.il/elections19/eng/list/Results_eng.aspx
A couple of points:-
Firstly, I thought that the left-centre had captured a majority of the votes. It turns out that that was not the case. Oops. The right actually captured over 50% of the vote, but lost seats due to splintering and spent votes to various right wing parties.
Secondly, I previously thought that Israeli elections used an unmodified Dhont method. It turns out this isnt the case. Any given party must receive 2% of the vote in order to qualify for an initial seat, even though at most, under an unmodified dhont method, you would only need 0.8% or so. This also means that it is impossible for any party to receive a single seat in Israeli elections, since in order to qualify in the first place, you need more than the number of votes that is required to gain two places.
Obviously, this is intended to reduce the influence of smaller parties.
Under an unmodified Dhont method/pure proportional representation method, you would have seen the following breakup:-
likud-beteinu (23.3%): 30
yesh atid(14.3%): 18
labor (11.4%): 15
jewish home (9.1%): 12
shas (8.7%): 11
united torah judaism (5.2%): 6
hatnua (5.0%): 6
meretz (4.5%): 6
united arab list (3.6%): 4
hadash (3.0%): 3
balad (2.6%): 3
kadima (2.1%): 2
otzma (1.8%): 2
am shalem (1.2%): 1
green leaf (1.2%): 1
However, Green Leaf (left wing), Am Shalem (far right wing) and Otzma (far right wing) failed to make the threshold of 2%, and so these votes were effectively spent. This resulted in a net loss to the right of two seats that they would have otherwise gained.
Add in the 2% threshold and you get the current breakup:-
likud (23.3%): 31
yesh (14.3%): 19
labor (11.4%): 15
jewish home (9.1%): 12
shas (8.7%): 11
utj (5.2%): 7
hatnua (5.0%): 6
meretz (4.5%): 6
united arab list (3.6%): 4
hadash (3.0%): 4
balad (2.6%): 3
kadima (2.1%): 2
I used the Dhont calculator at http://icon.cat/util/elections to play around with the results. Its quite a nifty bit of software and good fun if you are interested in elections.
A couple of observations:-
1) The election was represented as being something of a qualified victory for the left. A detailed look at the results suggests that this was definitely not the case. The Right won the popular vote by a significant margin. Also, amongst the centrist parties, the greatest gains were made by those parties that were arguably right of centre (such as Yesh Atid) rather than left of centre. Finally, although Likud and Beteinu ran on a joint list, their parties are still separate. Beteinu received 10 seats to Likud's 20.
This means that on an unmodified Dhont system, 24 seats would have gone to the ultranationalist or Kahanist right (Beteinu, Jewish Home, Am Shelem, Otzma) or 20% of the total, in addition to 17 seats that would have gone to theocratic parties.
2) Secondly, even amongst the Left, the rhetoric has decidely become more rightist. Even Meretz campaigned on a platform of retaining the settlements, which puts them at odds with the Geneva plan, which calls for vacating some of the major settlements.
3) Instead of crimping his hand, as some have reported, the election results have given Netanyahu options that he did not have before. In particular, the success of Yesh Atid (an anti-orthdox party) gives him the potential support for an austerity drive that he did not have before. Shas and UTJ are reliably right wing on most issues but are very protective of the government benefits that their constituents receive, and so tend not to be supportive of austerity measures. I don't think that Netanyahu will betray the theocratic parties given that they have been steadfast in their support of him, but the potential is there should he need it.
4) The purging of moderates from within Likud, such as Dan Meridor and others, mean that Netanyahu's traditional coalition, should he choose to keep it, will be more dominated by ultranationalists than ever before.
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Yesh Atid. This party is something of a vanity vehicle for a telegenic newsreader, Yair Lapid, who seems to specialise in telling people want they want to hear:-
They are a strange mix, with some political refugees from the Left and academia as well as the Right, together with ethnic minorities, sports stars and military heroes. Overall, Lapid seems to have approved people on the basis of their celebrity status rather than for any consistent ideological orientation.
It is certainly true that domestic issues were at the forefront and that peace with the Arabs was well down the list in terms of priority.
As I understand it, the main controversy surrounding the kollel scholars is that they are eligible both for welfare stipends as well as exemption from military service, whereas people undertaking non-religious study in a university are eligible for neither. There was a newspaper article which dealt with this:-
http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=248596
