Sanctions look set to break the Iranian government

[shaayecanaan]

A couple of news stories on Iran. It looks like Iran may not be able to withstand the sanctions for very much longer. It is the EU sanctions that are having the critical effect, the US sanctions don't matter much as Iran hasnt done business with the US for decades:-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/24/sanctions-iran-nuclear-talks-heidi-moore

The Supreme Leadership has made some encouraging statements about embracing a diplomatic solution to the conflict:-

Iran's Ministry of Intelligence did something remarkable last month: It used its website to publish a report (link in Farsi) calling for direct talks with the country's foe, the United States. In the report, entitled "The Zionist Regime's Reasons and Obstacles for Attacking Iran," the traditionally hawkish ministry highlighted the benefits of diplomacy and negotiations with the United States: "One way to fend off a possible war is to resort to diplomacy and to use all international capacities."

The authors took care to draw a line between the approaches currently taken towards Iran's nuclear program by the U.S. and Israel, Iran's archenemy. President Obama, the report's authors wrote, "hopes to solve this issue peacefully and through diplomacy" -- in contrast to Israel, which, it said, favors a unilateral strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. By implementing "severe sanctions," the report contended, Obama is actually trying to control the situation without resorting to military action. The text concluded that there is a high risk of war and "it is an unforgiveable sin not to prevent it."

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/21/feeling_the_pain_in_tehran?page=0,1&wp_login_redirect=0

Presidential elections are set for 14 June 2013, which will elect a successor to Mahmound Ahmadinejad. Perhaps they will try to last out that long and hope that a new, more moderate President will have some success trying to resolve the matter diplomatically.

Or perhaps that may not be soon enough. Things are looking terrible over there. The rial has lost three-quarters of its value, and the lack of foreign currency is making it difficult to buy essential medicines, the first direct death as a result of the sanctions:-

Putting food on the table has become a challenge for many Iranians. Shirin, a 34-year-old single chemist who lives with her widowed mother in Tehran, said that the rial's drastic loss of value -- 40 percent since August alone -- is making life far harder. "Cabbies ask for a higher fare every morning when I go to work, citing the higher exchange rate," she said. "We've had to cut down on what we eat and replace, for example, meat with more bread. But how long can we continue doing that?"

Faced with a swelling budget deficit, the government has failed to pay private contractors. Heads of several private hospitals warned this month that their hospitals were in verge of bankruptcy because the government was not paying what it owed them. A 15-year old hemophiliac boy died in the southern city of Dezful after his parents couldn't find the vital medicine he needed, a state news agency reported. His is the first civilian death directly linked to the sanctions.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/21/feeling_the_pain_in_tehran?page=0,1&wp_login_redirect=0

[Drale]

1. It really does not matter who is elected president of Iran

its the Ayatollahs who really run that government and until that changes, nothing else will.

[shaayecanaan]

3. Its unlikely that any Western government will want to be seen with Ahmadinejad...

so therefore there might be sense in waiting until June 2013. Yes, I am aware that the Supreme Leadership holds sway in most things.

[Scootaloo]

4. A point frequently missed by the "Bomb, Bomb Iran" crowd

They focus on how big an asshole Ahmedinejad is, and use that as logic for wanting to murder Iranians. "THIS MAN CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS!" they shout. And you know what? They're right. Ahmedinejad cannot be allowed to have access to nuclear weapons. I can think of few people I'd trust less with launch codes. It'd probably be really bad!

Good thing that will absolutely never be a situation. Ever. Period. Even on the long shot iran develops such weapons, Ahmedinejad is never going to get his cheetoh-stained fingers anywhere near them.

What the Bomb Bomb Iran crowd doesn't realize... Okay, wait, let me rephrase, what the Bomb Bomb Iran crowd obfuscates and lies about, is the fact that the Iranian president has no military authority.

None.
Zip.
Zilch.

In the United States, the Iranian presidency would be somewhere between president and secretary of state. Within the bounds of domestic Iranian concerns, he's about on par with an American president (with limits there, too.) Abroad, he gets to name diplomats, shake hands, and go to the UN.

All military decisions of Iran are made by the Supreme Leader - who, if the name weren't a giveaway, is the supreme political figure in Iran. This guy also gets to waive any presidential decision he likes - again, the office is Supreme Leader.

Ahmedinejad is utterly irrelevant, and his lunatic rhetoric is certainly no cause for a campaign to end the lives of thousands, possibly millions of Iranians.

[azurnoir]

5. the problem is that I've been told more than once here that

the reason MAD or that Iran and its people are not suicidal won't work with Iran is the Supreme Leader who as a devout Muslim would be willing to not only die himself but see many more Iranian deaths in order to destroy Israel or kill Jews depending on who is answering

[shaayecanaan]

6. Its a good job Christianity has no concept of the afterlife

or you wouldnt be able to expect Christian leaders to act rationally, either.

[PDJane]

2. Next question.

Since Iran has supposedly been six months away from a nuclear weapon for 25 years or so, why are there sanctions at all? Aren't sanctions simply mass punishment of civilians for something that their administration might do, but hasn't?

It's one of the more assinine things the US has done lately.