Palestinian Political Crisis Worries Israel No Less Than Terror Wave

[geek tragedy]

One group that does not buy this forecast is the Israeli intelligence community. Even though the intensity and frequency of the terror attacks have been decreasing over the past two weeks, and most of the events are now taking place in or to the north of the Hebron area – the almost unanimous assessment of intelligence experts is that a new situation has been created, one that’s liable to persist for a long time. True, they acknowledge that an effective local response in Jerusalem (diplomatic persuasion regarding the Temple Mount and a reinforced police presence in Palestinian neighborhoods) has succeeded in stemming the wave of violence, and that there is no critical mass in the West Bank as yet capable of reprising the previous two intifadas. But intelligence officials are pessimistic about the long-range situation. Their impression is that the mechanism of constraints that Israel and the Palestinian Authority imposed, and that kept the West Bank more or less stable for a decade, is unraveling. It will thus be difficult to restore the calm and retain stability in the long term, and a very real potential exists for a more severe flare-up, even if quiet prevails in the short run.

According to one intelligence analysis presented to the security cabinet, this change is related both to the approach taken by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas regarding the future of the negotiations with Israel, and to the fact that his rule has entered its twilight phase. For most of the period since succeeding Yasser Arafat in November 2004, Abbas has advocated a solution in the Oslo spirit: political negotiations whose ultimate aim is the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of the two-state solution. The failure of the initiative by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in March 2014, however, reinforced a shift that had already begun in Abbas’ approach and, concomitantly, in his policy as well. His new message, which resonated in his speech to the UN General assembly in September, is that the Palestinian state is already here, an existing fact. If Israel wants to anchor this situation in a final-status political agreement, its leaders should let him know. In the meantime, the Palestinians will go on doing their thing, while adopting a militant stance in the institutions of the international community.


Abbas presented this policy in his UN speech, and in so doing also signaled to the young generation in the territories that it was now up to them to lead. The message, heard loud and clear, came at a time of already-existing tensions over the Temple Mount. When the violence was unleashed, in early October, with the murder of Eitam and Naama Henkin, Abbas did not immediately intervene: Senior PA figures, notably in the Tanzim – Fatah’s militant, grass-roots movement – engaged in open anti-Israeli incitement, but he preferred to keep mum. Only when he saw he was losing control and the Tanzim were becoming more active in organizing violent marches aimed at provoking confrontations with Israeli troops outside Palestinian cities, did Abbas order the Tanzim unequivocally to cease and desist.

That did not stop the surge of knifing attacks, most of which have been perpetrated by young people unaffiliated with any organization, but it at least reduced the scope of the mass clashes with the army in the West Bank. Even now, a month after Abbas laid down the law, the position of the Tanzim is still considered critical with regard to future developments. They are the fulcrum: If the Tanzim returns to the confrontational front, its members will take their weapons with them. And because the Tanzim is, after the PA’s security forces, the largest armed body in the West Bank (many activists play a part in both organizations) – the consequences could be dire.

In the meantime, Abbas is continuing to restrain his people. But even so, it’s clear that the president – along with all the other players in the Palestinian arena – is already engaged in a political countdown. The open discussion of Abbas’ anticipated retirement and the struggle for succession that will develop in its wake are weakening him. It also appears that Israel is less worried about the immediate implications of the wave of violence, which is continuing at middling intensity, than about the anarchy that could descend on the West Bank as a result of an internal political crisis among the Palestinians. Because the PA is also facing growing economic problems, there is also a possibility that the interplay between those pressures will cause the PA to abandon its responsibility altogether, with the result that Israel will be sucked in again, against its will, to a position of assuming full rule over the West Bank population.

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.684483?date=1446820535583

It's very hard to see the PA surviving Abbas. So, things will be where they were in 1990, except much worse.

Fortunately, President Obama has washed his hands of this mess.

[bemildred]

1. Oh I think Bibi owns this one. This is all his doing. nt

[geek tragedy]

2. Whoever succeeds him in office will inherit it nt

[bemildred]

3. The sins of the fathers are passed down to the sons, yes indeed.

I am happy to say that my father did not sin too much.