The Palestinian bubble is about to burst

[geek tragedy]

http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-palestinian-bubble-is-about-to-burst/

Abu-Mazen has been signaling for some time that, like so many Palestinians, he has given up hope on reaching a negotiated settlement on a bilateral basis. He has also made it clear that at the age of eighty-one he wishes to be relieved of the mantle of leadership. His resignation from his positions at the helm of the Fatah and the PLO this past summer is but a prelude to what promises to be a much deeper change in the parameters of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The new contours, however, are still unclear.

...

A variant of this scenario is more intriguing. It is not inconceivable that Mahmoud Abbas may ask — in his last appearance before the United Nations — for the assumption of a UN trusteeship over the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This idea was bandied about in the 1980s, before the Oslo talks, and is being revived today in light of the internationalization of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Two notable precedents exist for such a move. The first is the case of South-West Africa (present-day Namibia). In the late 1960s the United Nations abrogated the South African mandate over the territory and in 1973 it recognized SWAPO (The South West Africa People’s Organization) as the official representative of the Namibian people. In 1978 the Security Council took responsibility for overseeing the transition of Namibia to independence from South Africa — completed in 1990 under the auspices of the UN Transition Assistance Group (UNTAG). The second example is that of Timor-Leste (East Timor), formerly a Portuguese colony annexed by Indonesia in 1976 following the withdrawal of the colonial power a year earlier. In 1999 the United Nations assumed full responsibility for East Timor, establishing the UN Transition Administration for East Timor (UNTAET), which oversaw the move to independence in 2002. In both instances — which, admittedly, differ in several respects from the Palestinian situation — the international community did directly intervene to terminate foreign control over neighboring areas and guarantee the emergence of independent states in their stead.

All of these options can be set in motion by the Palestinian leadership, which already has made substantial overtures to European countries. France is still considering a Security Council resolution to expedite negotiations. Together with other European countries committed to labeling settlement products, it is exploring the possibility of convening an international conference to promote an Israeli-Palestinian agreement within the framework of the Arab Peace Initiative. All these measures are being weighed without active Israeli involvement.


Indeed, Israeli officialdom, to date, has scoffed at the prospect of any substantive change in the nature of the current situation, dismissing Palestinian moves as “a charade” of “mere brinkmanship”. They might be well-advised to begin to take matters more seriously. By the end of this week, Israel — along with the rest of the world — may in all likelihood be facing a new reality. Its government cannot continue to act as if it were a mere bystander without any direct connection to unfolding events. This time, however, Israel cannot afford to find itself ill-prepared. If there ever was a time to shift gears and proactively seek new ways to end the conflict, it is now. With or without Israeli cooperation, the status quo is about to change dramatically.

There's no real appetite--anywhere--for bilateral negotiations. So, what fills the void is indeed the question.