Saudi Arabia Evacuates Diplomats From Yemeni City as Houthi Advance Continues

[bemildred]

CAIRO — Saudi Arabia said Saturday that its navy had evacuated 86 Arab and Western diplomats from the port city of Aden in southern Yemen, as a Saudi-led coalition conducted a third day of airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthi movement.

Separately, Saudi Arabia confirmed that an American helicopter had rescued two Saudi pilots who ejected from an F-15 fighter over waters south of Yemen. The official Saudi Press Agency said the pilots had ejected because of a “technical fault” and were “in good health.”

The evacuation of the diplomats from Aden reflected the spreading chaos in Yemen as the Houthi-allied forces continued to advance, even under the pressure of the Saudi bombing. The breakdown of order has potentially grave consequences for the United States, because Yemen had been a central theater of the war with Al Qaeda, but the factional fighting has now forced the Americans to withdraw their forces as well.

Aden is Yemen’s second largest city and had been the provisional headquarters of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the Saudi-backed Yemeni leader, since the Houthis overran the capital, Sana. Mr. Hadi fled last month to Aden to make a last stand among his supporters in the south, but he, too, has now left Yemen, attending a meeting of Arab leaders on Saturday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/29/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-evacuates-diplomats-from-yemeni-city-as-houthi-advance-continues.html

[bemildred]

1. The Middle Eastern Metternichs of Riyadh

Gaming the demise of the Saudi monarchy has been a flourishing industry on the think-tank circuit for the past dozen years. Not long ago I sat in private conclaves of US national security officials with a sprinkling of invited experts where the head-shaking, chin-pulling consensus held that the Saudi royal family would be gone in ten years. A premise of the “realist” view that American policy in the region should shift towards Iran was that the Saudi monarchy would collapse and Sunni power along with it. All of us misunderestimated the Saudis.

Now the Saudis have emerged at the top of a Sunni coalition against Iran–limited for the moment to the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, to be sure, but nonetheless the most impressive piece of diplomacy in the Sunni world since Nasser, and perhaps in modern times. That attributes a lot of importance to a coalition assembled for a minor matter in a small country, but it may be the start of something important: the self-assertion of the Sunni world in response to the collapse of American regional power, the threat of Sunni jihadist insurgencies, and the Shi’ite bid for regional hegemony.

The standard narrative held that the Saudi royal family would fracture after the death of King Abdullah, leaving a sclerotic and senile generation of princes to preside over the demise of a colonial relic. After the so-called Arab Spring of 2011, the smart money bet on the Islamists, with their fusion of religious fundamentalism and modern political techniques. “Given the awfulness of post-World War II Arab lands, where even the most benign regimes had sophisticated, torture-happy security services, Islamists who braved the wrath of rulers and trenchantly critiqued the moral breakdown of their societies were going to do well in a postsecular age. What is poorly understood in the West is how critical fundamentalists are to the moral and political rejuvenation of their countries. As counterintuitive as it seems, they are the key to more democratic, liberal politics in the region,” wrote Reuel Marc Gerecht in 2012.

http://atimes.com/2015/03/the-middle-eastern-metternichs-of-riyadh/

[KoKo]

9. He's an entertaining writer.....

but, he finds this credible? It doesn't fit with other articles that head of Cent Com wouldn't know what was happened with Saudi Arabia. Maybe it's all about the reported "Battle between the Generals in the MIC" that while some are in the know, others are left out of the loop?

btw: He had an article (critique) about Victoria Nuland in early March that was delightful read, imho....

-----------------

“At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday, General Lloyd Austin, head of the U.S. Central Command, said he did not learn the Saudis were actually going attack Yemen until an hour before the operation was launched. Austin, whose theater includes Yemen, would normally expect to be given more than an hour’s heads-up before such a military operation. Another official with Centcom, who asked not to be named, told us Thursday evening that Austin had “indications” over the weekend that something might happen but got no final confirmation until Wednesday,”Eli Lake and Josh Rogin reported today in Bloomberg News.

This is the second time in a few months that the Saudis have taken the world by surprise. The first was last September, when they initiated a plunge in oil prices by declining to reduce production in the face of a surge in US oil output. That had killed two birds with one stone, namely competition from higher-cost US shale producers, and the Iranian government budget. No-one saw that coming. For those of us who enjoy surprises, Riyadh has been a welcome source of them in recent months. We look forward to more.

[bemildred]

11. People see what they look for.

And hype rules the world, yes?

Maybe this is the start of a brilliant lightning offensive, who can say?

There is a petulant tone in the bleats coming from Tehran and Riyadh, maybe they will decide to talk instead.

[KoKo]

17. Hype + Disinformation..

So many rogue "special interests" vying for control.

And, the other possibility is that if, as reported by Bloomberg, CentCom didn't know, until shortly before the strikes, then Obama and his advisers would be pretty pissed off at a surprise move by Saudi's without their knowledge and pretty annoyed that their intelligence sources let them down. General Allen might be headed for an early retirement?

So many other articles, though, contradict that we weren't in the loop with Saudi actions in Yemen. And, Bloomberg can be iffy with their reporting, (partisan Think Tanks), although it's certainly an interesting revelation about General Allen that he claims he didn't know.

[bemildred]

19. We are trying to play both sides of the net, have been for a long time.

That's the problem. I think we are going to have a war if the big countries don't get involved right now, to be honest.

[bemildred]

2. Obama leashes the Saudi war dogs

The international dimension to the conflict in Yemen has surged dramatically. This is not surprising because the fact of the matter is that the civil war in that country is entangled with global challenges and big-power relations, notwithstanding the simplistic perception that it is yet another manifestation of Saudi-Iranian rivalry. There is no denying that terrorist groups are operating in Yemen; Yemen is a strategically located country; Saudi Arabia’s security is affected; energy security could get disrupted; Shi’ite empowerment is a crucial template of regional stability; the impulses of the Arab Spring are from exhausted; and, the prestige of the United Nations is under challenge in Yemen.

President Barack Obama spoke with King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia on Friday and “emphasized the United States’ support” for the Saudi air attacks on Yemen. Obama “underscored” the US’ commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security. Thereupon, they agreed on “our collective goal” to steer Yemen through a “negotiated political solution facilitated by the United Nations and involving all parties as envisioned in the GCC Initiative” so as to achieve “lasting stability.”

The Saudi ambassador in Washington has also acknowledged that the US has been “very supportive” of the operation in Yemen not only politically but logistically as well and that Riyadh is “very pleased” with the level of military and intelligence coordination with the US. The National Security Council spokesperson separately confirmed in Washington that Obama has authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support for the Saudi-led military operations. Other reports mention that the US is establishing a Joint Planning Cell with Saudi Arabia and that the US Navy handled a rescue operation involving two Saudi pilots.

http://atimes.com/2015/03/obama-leashes-the-saudi-war-dogs/

[KoKo]

8. Interesting and hopeful read...

In sum, what emerges is that the US, Russia and the EU have been in unison that an intra-Yemeni political solution negotiated through the good offices of the UN only can ensure lasting peace and stability.

This dominant thinking in the world capitals make it very difficult for the Saudis to push ahead with the military operations and expand them to a ground offensive. Interestingly, Riyadh has since advised Islamabad to postpone the visit by a high-level Pakistani delegation including military officials that was to have taken place on Friday. (See my blog Pakistan’s Yemeni War.) Sensing that the Saudis are having a rethink, Islamabad has also quickly re-calibrated its earlier enthusiasm to be part of the Saudi-led coalition. The latest mantra is, “We [Pakistan] have made no decision to participate in this war. We didn’t make any promise. We have not promised any military support to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.” (Daily Times).

All in all, the Saudi operations in Yemen are lacking a sense of direction and may have to give way to the political and diplomatic track sooner than later. Iran will be pleased that the prospect of the Houthis being accommodated in Yemen’s power structure in Sana’a as a legitimate constituent party looks brighter than ever. If that happens, Shi’ite empowerment in the region gains further ground. Indeed, the suppressed Shi’ite communities in Bahrain (where Shi’ites are in majority) and other regional states in the Gulf, including even in Saudi Arabia, are watching closely the denouement in Yemen.

As the best-organized force in Yemen, the Houthis can afford to play the long game. Their winning trump card, in the ultimate analysis, is that they are the bulwark against the al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Yemen — and not the GCC states.

[bemildred]

10. Well, as you can see, opinions are varied.

I think everybody is kind of waiting to see what everybody does now. And there is some of this sort of "Do we really want to do this?" thinking going on too.

But it depends on the Saudis and the Houthis, I think, and I have no idea what either one will do, except that I don't expect the Houthi's to wait, they will try to take Aden.

But see Mr. Goldman's piece.

[bemildred]

3. A partitioned Iraq would be a nightmare for Iran

Iran is not a sectarian actor, but Tehran still needs to prove it. Its involvement in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is a good opportunity to do so. Iran’s ability to constrain and control Shia militias in the ongoing offensive in Tikrit, Iraq, will determine how Iraqis, regional powers and the rest of the international community view Iran and its policies. If the widely shared fear of a backlash against Sunnis in Iraq materializes, Iran will continue to be a player in the sectarian game despite itself.

Iraq’s stability is an important concern for Iranians, who still remember the two countries’ devastating eight-year war in the 1980s. Iran sees ISIL as a grave threat in its backyard. After initial hesitation over the extent of the ISIL threat, Tehran has transformed the group’s menace into an opportunity. Tehran is providing the Iraqi army with ground assistance to fight ISIL while cementing influence and control over its neighbor.

Iran is now at the center of the attempt to take back Saddam Hussein’s predominantly Sunni hometown. Of the 30,000 Iraqi troops advancing into Tikrit, two-thirds are Shia. The fighters operate under the umbrella of the Hashd Al-Shaabi, or popular mobilization units. The units receive weapons, training, advice and intelligence from Iran. Tehran recently scaled up its involvement in Iraq by sending missiles to the Iraqi army.

“Iran and its proxies have been inside Iraq since 2004,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on March 3. “This is the most overt conduct of Iranian support in the form of artillery and other things.”

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/3/a-partitioned-iraq-would-be-a-nightmare-for-iran.html

[bemildred]

4. Why it may suit Iran to let the Saudis win in Yemen

It may appear confusing at first glance that the U.S. is supporting a Saudi-led military intervention against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen while waging its own air campaign in support of Iran’s allies fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Tikrit, Iraq — and negotiating a nuclear accord with Tehran. But there’s a coherent strategic thread linking these three seemingly disparate processes.

Yemen is Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and has traditionally loomed large in its national security thinking. The recent evisceration of Saudi allies in Sanaa suggest Riyadh took its eye off the ball, but Saudi success in establishing a broad coalition to fight the Houthi takeover in Yemen represents a feather in the cap of the new ruler, King Salman. By persuading states such as Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and the UAE to join forces in what they see as a bid to aggressively roll back Iranian influence, Salman has transcended the divisions among Sunni Muslim powers over the Muslim Brotherhood. The Yemen intervention reflects Riyadh’s success in prioritizing the confrontation against Iran, and it is through this lens that the battle in Yemen is now being seen.

For the Saudi-led alliance to win in Yemen entails reinstalling Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi as president, rolling back Houthi military gains and forming a governing alliance in which the Houthi were at most a distinctly junior partner. Achieving such an outcome could make the Saudi leadership less skittish in its overall regional contest with Iran, which it has been perceived as losing.

Strong backing for the Saudi-led effort in Yemen allows Barack Obama’s administration to dispel the notion — widely (albeit mistakenly) held in Arab capitals and by some critics in Congress and the U.S. foreign policy establishment — that nuclear diplomacy presages a broader U.S. realignment in favor of Iran and at the expense of traditional U.S. allies in the Gulf.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/3/28/why-it-may-suit-iran-to-let-the-saudis-win-in-yemen.html

[bemildred]

5. . nt

[KoKo]

7. Very good read.....

Seems we are trying to "walk a tight rope" in policy dealing with Yemen situation and the authors of the article do a nice job of pointing out the pitfalls. Haven't seen this U.S. policy strategy (if it is accurate) laid out as clearly in other articles re Yemen. Another piece of the puzzle.

There is no guarantee that the Saudi-led military alliance will win a quick and clean victory in Yemen or that its intervention will demonstrate the strength and competence that it hopes will deter Iran. A Saudi failure, stalemate or escalation could boost Arab anxieties over Iran or spark wider clashes across the region that would undermine the Western effort to prioritize fighting ISIL.

Iran, for its part, may not sacrifice its Houthi chip quite so easily; it may be tempted, instead, to suck the Saudis deeper into a costly Yemeni quagmire.

And any sustained U.S. military action in the region, whether to support of old allies or to push back new foes (such as ISIL) carries the risk of blowback or mission creep and of undercutting U.S. goals in Yemen, Iraq and Syria.

With the nuclear talks having reached a challenging phase for Iran regarding the pace of sanctions removal and questions about Obama’s ability to deliver, given Washington’s political divisions, Iranian opponents of nuclear compromise may seek to use developments in Yemen to tilt Tehran’s internal debate in their favor.

And then there is Yemen itself.

[westerebus]

6. Somalia part 2 ??

The Saudi's have no one to blame, but, themselves.

It's been their money. Their influence. Their connections. All of which are returning home.

The Saudi are not about to engage in a protracted war in Yemen and neither are the Gulf States, Jordan or Egypt for that matter.

Not without support.

The UN opens up a call for peace keepers and support.

China answers with 10,000 troops.

On a peace mission to secure the port of Aden.

Can you imagine?

[bemildred]

12. Another drone war success up in flames.

The Saudis do seem to be freaking out a bit, but as you point out, Aden is serious business, a lot of people are freaking out. Yemen was supposed to be "under control".

[westerebus]

24. The Saudi are about to find out just who there friends in Washington are.

The House of Bush has a lot to consider. As do the 47 letter co-signers given the latest state of affairs.

Any in the House or Senate calling for investigations of US made aircraft being used for offensive purposes on a non-belligerent state?

Arms sales from the US approved by the Congress are for defensive purposes only.

And who might like nothing better than a Security Council call to action?

I don't know if the Saudi have painted themselves into a corner, over reaction to Yemen's internals can have unforeseen consequences.

[bemildred]

25. +1. nt

[bemildred]

13. Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with suicide bombings

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141051722

[Dems to Win]

14. Astonishing how quickly and competently the Saudis are bombing Yemen

They couldn't be persuaded to lift a little pinky finger to fight ISIS.....

Hmmmm.

[bemildred]

15. Arab leaders meet to tackle Middle East radicalism, unrest

Representatives of fourteen Arab countries met on Saturday in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh to discuss solutions for growing radicalism in the region and unrest in Yemen.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in his opening remarks spoke of the spread of violent militancy, calling it a "challenge to the identity of the Arab nation" that compromised national security.

Pan-Arab force proposed

El-Sissi reiterated his proposal of creating a pan-Arab force to tackle militancy in the Middle East. "This force will be a tool to face challenges that threaten Arab national security … The future of this nation hinges on the decisions we will take at this crucial juncture," El-Sissi told leaders gathered in the Egyptian town.

http://www.dw.de/arab-leaders-meet-to-tackle-middle-east-radicalism-unrest/a-18347185

[bemildred]

16. Yemen president berates Iran "puppets" at Arab summit opening

With his country embattled in conflict, Yemen President Hadi calls the Shi'ite group which has taken over large parts of the country Iranian ''puppets''. Nathan Frandino reports.

http://uk.reuters.com/video/2015/03/28/yemen-president-berates-iran-puppets-at?rpc=401&videoId=363661314&feedType=VideoRSS&feedName=TopNews&rpc=401&videoChannel=1

[bemildred]

18. Arab operation hit Yemen base holding long-range missiles - Yemeni official

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt - A Saudi-led military operation has targeted a base where Iranian-backed Houthi fighters had set up long-range missiles and pointed them towards the southern Yemeni city of Aden and neighouring countries, a Yemeni official said on Saturday.

The official told Reuters that Yemeni authorities had received information that Iranian experts had brought in parts for the missiles at the base, located south of Sanaa.

Iran denies allegations made by some Yemeni and Western officials that it is providing money and training to the Shi'ite Muslim Houthis, whose rapid territorial advances triggered an Arab military campaign against them.

The official, a member of the Yemeni delegation at an Arab League summit in Egypt, showed Reuters mobile phone pictures of a huge orange mushroom cloud, saying it was the force of the rockets exploding at the base after it was targeted.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Arab-operation-hit-Yemen-base-holding-long-range-missiles-Yemeni-official-395410

[bemildred]

21. Heavy Explosions At Arms Depot Rock Yemen's Aden

Aden: A series of heavy explosions at an arms depot rocked Yemen's second city Aden on Saturday, causing some casualties, witnesses said.

The blasts were heard across the city and plumes of smoke were seen rising from the depot, where looting by residents had broken out a day earlier, an AFP correspondent reported.

Houses shook, many windows were shattered and several nearby buildings were destroyed after the depot blasts, residents said. The depot is located at the foot of Jabal Hadid, a mountain near the port of Aden.

A large amount of weapons dating back to the Soviet era were stored in a cave. Troops guarding it abandoned the area this week after their commanders fled as chaos gripped the war-torn country.

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/heavy-blasts-at-arms-depot-rock-yemens-aden-750375

[KoKo]

23. ....

Hidden WMD's...I suspect. :

[bemildred]

20. Arab Airstrikes Against Yemen Reportedly Could Continue For Months

Yemeni President Abdel Rabbo Mansour Hadi described Shiite Houthi rebels who have occupied parts of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, as "puppets of Iran."

The remarks by Hadi, who was forced to flee Yemen amid the rebel onslaught, come as a Gulf diplomatic official quoted by news agencies says that Arab nations allied against the Houthis could continue their airstrikes against the Shiite militia for months.

At an Arab League summit held in Egypt, Hadi left no doubt that he believed the Houthis were being controlled by Tehran: "I say to the puppets of Iran and its toys: ... You've destroyed Yemen."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/03/28/395978212/arab-airstrikes-against-yemen-reportedly-could-continue-for-months

[bemildred]

22. Houthis can defend Yemen without Iran help-official

Dubai: Yemen's Houthis are prepared to confront a Saudi-led campaign of air strikes launched on Thursday without calling for help from their ally Iran, a Houthi official told Reuters.

Asked if there had been any communications with Iran since the start of the attacks, or if the Houhtis would seek military help from Tehran, Houthi politburo official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said: "No. The Yemeni people are prepared to face this aggression without any foreign interference."

http://www.timesofoman.com/News/49424/Article-Houthis-can-defend-Yemen-without-Iran-help-official