Politics and the long war in Iraq

[unhappycamper]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-110914.html



Politics and the long war in Iraq
By Brian M Downing
Sep 11, '14

The four armed groups warring in Iraq - Islamic State (IS), the Kurdish peshmerga, the Iraqi army, and Sunni tribal levies - have strengths and weaknesses. They also have varying levels of foreign support and capacities for cooperation. IS troops have a marked qualitative edge but are badly outnumbered and have no reliable allies inside Iraq.

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The Sunnis long dominated the Iraqi army and state until Saddam was driven from power in 2003. Irritated by Shi'ite preeminence, and recognizing their own small percentage of the population (about 16%), the Sunnis are the only Iraqi group that IS can find support from. IS's bombing campaign against Shi'ite targets was at least tacitly supported by some Sunnis, especially remnants of Saddam's army and state. IS's recent offensive has been helped by those same remnants. They were instrumental in convincing parts of the Iraqi army to abandon Mosul, and IS rewarded them with positions in new local governments.

However, Sunni ambitions for autonomy are irreconcilable with IS's dream of a new caliphate. The Sunnis, especially the tribes, are amenable to fighting IS. The most powerful sheikh, Ali Hatem al-Suleiman, has announced his willingness to fight IS. There will be a price and it seems to include direct US support, without Baghdad's mediation - a step toward a fuller break from the old Iraq.

Neither Kurdish nor Shi'ite troops will be welcome in Sunni regions, hence the Sunni tribes will be decisive in ousting IS. The jihadis occupy large parts of Sunni territory, hence the Sunni tribes will be subject to pitiless reprisals. The Sunnis are unlikely to find minority status and a few portfolios preferable to the regional autonomy the Kurds already have. The Sunnis, armed by the West and victorious over the jihadis, will not again submit to the Shi'ite majority.