Fourth test could be fatal

[unhappycamper]

http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2987548



North Korean army officers and soldiers attend a rally at Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square on Feb. 14, 2013, to celebrate the country’s third nuclear test. The UN Security Council condemned North Korea’s decision to conduct a third underground nuclear test in defiance of resolutions banning nuclear and missile activity.

Fourth test could be fatal

This is a hidden story that occurred right after the death of Kim Jong-il in 2011. China reinforced its forces along the Aprok (or Yalu) River and held an extensive military exercise. It was a display of strength in case of sudden changes in North Korea. When the Blue House, the ROK Armed Forces and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested, Beijing officially responded that they were preparing for possible mass defections from North Korea. But the ulterior motives learned through the unofficial channels were different. China said it was a misunderstanding to assume it wanted to take over North Korea in case of an emergency. In fact, China had little ambition concerning North Korean territory and already was struggling with issues in Tibet and Xinjiang. Beijing couldn’t afford the astronomical cost to govern a region of different ethnicity and language. However, China couldn’t stand still for U.S. Forces in Korea moving north of the Demarcation Line.

Today, what’s more significant than the unmanned aerial vehicles that crashed in South Korea is Pyongyang’s announcement of a fourth nuclear test. The North Korean Foreign Ministry claimed it would conduct an exercise of striking mid- and long-range targets - not excluding a new form of nuclear experiment.

Pyongyang has been tackling practical national interests with brinkmanship. Its nuclear and missile tests were also conducted according to internal political decisions. Lately, U.S.-Russia relations are at a low point over the Crimean crisis. North Korea may have calculated the possibility that the UN Security Council’s sanctions against it might loosen.

A successful fourth nuclear experiment would mean completion of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. Until now, the United States had attempted to ignore North Korea with “strategic patience.” In order not to irritate U.S. voters, Washington considered it “not yet a substantial threat.”