Russia 1, Regime Changers 0

[unhappycamper]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170314.html



Russia 1, Regime Changers 0
By Pepe Escobar
Mar 17, '14

Let's cut to the chase - short and sweet.

1. The Obama administration's "strategic" gambit to subcontract the State Department's "Khaganate of Nulands" to extricate Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence - and ultimately annex it to NATO - by instrumentalizing a coalition of willing neo-nazis and fascists with a central bank veneer (prime minister "Yats&quot , is in utter shambles.

2. Moscow's counterpunch was to prevent in Crimea - as intercepted by Russian intelligence - a planned replay of the putsch in Kiev. The referendum in Crimea - 85% of turnout, roughly 93% voting for re-joining Russia, according to exit polls - is a done deal, as much as the oh-so-democratic European Union (EU) keeps threatening to punish people in Crimea for exercising their basic democratic rights. (By the way, when the US got Kosovo to secede from Serbia, Serbians were offered no referendum).

3. The main rationale for the whole US "strategic" advance - to have their proxies, the regime changers in Kiev, cancel the agreement for the Russian naval base in Sevastopol - is up in smoke. Moscow remains present in the Black Sea and with full access to the Eastern Mediterranean.

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Interesting piece, thanks.

Certainly provocative, makes me want to do some research.

[dipsydoodle]

5. To save you the bother on the naval lease for example.

Russia had an obvious interest in the naval base lease.

Based on the lease being renewed in 2010 for a further 25 years , to follow the 5 years left to run at that point , at an agreed figure of $30 billion which Putin agreed to despite his alleged comment at the time "we could build 10 for that" there is c. $26 billion remaining to be paid at $1 billion a year.

That is now income which Kiev will be deprived of - can't remember the exact figure but Kiev was passing on about 20% of that to Crimea. What the transactional method will now be on that between Russia and Crimea remains to be seen - if ever declared. Part of Kiev's reluctance , for want of a better expression, to lose Crimea will relate to that lost income.

In general I don't see anyone being in a position to "punish" the Crimeans whose only form of punishment would've been being made subject to an EU trade agreement. Most of their industrial output can only be exported to Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan the quality and price being below Europe's expectations. The EU agreement would've caused mass unemployment there for some years. That may also be factor affecting future events in other areas of Ukraine.

[jeff47]

7. All of Crimea's utilities run through Ukraine.

It'll be quite easy to punish them by cutting off their water, power, sewer and gas.

[dipsydoodle]

9. I would doubt they would do so.

Collective punishment is a war crime.

[jeff47]

10. Ukraine isn't required to supply utilities to another country.

So if team Putin wants Crimea, they'll need to bring some pipe. Or enough cash for Ukraine to forgive.

[dipsydoodle]

11. Or just shut down the gas supply completely

and get desalination plants in in volume until they can get a water pipeline in direct.

Aside from which so is Gaza

[bemildred]

12. Or a military sufficient to take what he likes. nt

[jeff47]

13. Nah, according to the OP and similar

Putin would never do something as bad as invade another country to seize their resources.

[bemildred]

14. On the contrary, that is exactly what I expected.

It is the numbnuts in our foreign policy circles that thought he would not.

[Demeter]

2. and this time, may the truth set us all free

because I'm getting really tired of our shadow govt. and the elected's complicity.

[quakerboy]

3. Interesting perspective

But it sounds, roughly speaking, kinda nutty.

Reading a little bit available online about the owner of Asia times, that would seem to make sense.

[Demeter]

4. Corporate Interests Behind Ukraine Putsch By JP Sottile

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/03/16/corporate-interests-behind-ukraine-putsch/

Behind the U.S.-backed coup that ousted the democratically elected president of Ukraine are the economic interests of giant corporations – from Cargill to Chevron – which see the country as a potential “gold mine” of profits from agricultural and energy exploitation, reports JP Sottile...

On Jan. 12, a reported 50,000 “pro-Western” Ukrainians descended upon Kiev’s Independence Square to protest against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych. Stoked in part by an attack on opposition leader Yuriy Lutsenko, the protest marked the beginning of the end of Yanukovych’s four year-long government. That same day, the Financial Times reported a major deal for U.S. agribusiness titan Cargill. Despite the turmoil within Ukrainian politics after Yanukovych rejected a major trade deal with the European Union just seven weeks earlier, Cargill was confident enough about the future to fork over $200 million to buy a stake in Ukraine’s UkrLandFarming. According to Financial Times, UkrLandFarming is the world’s eighth-largest land cultivator and second biggest egg producer. And those aren’t the only eggs in Cargill’s increasingly-ample basket. On Dec. 13, Cargill announced the purchase of a stake in a Black Sea port. Cargill’s port at Novorossiysk — to the east of Russia’s strategically significant and historically important Crimean naval base — gives them a major entry-point to Russian markets and adds them to the list of Big Ag companies investing in ports around the Black Sea, both in Russia and Ukraine. Cargill has been in Ukraine for over two decades, investing in grain elevators and acquiring a major Ukrainian animal feed company in 2011. And, based on its investment in UkrLandFarming, Cargill was decidedly confident amidst the post-EU deal chaos. It’s a stark juxtaposition to the alarm bells ringing out from the U.S. media, bellicose politicians on Capitol Hill and perplexed policymakers in the White House.

It’s even starker when compared to the anxiety expressed by Morgan Williams, President and CEO of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council — which, according to its website, has been “Promoting U.S.-Ukraine business relations since 1995.” Williams was interviewed by the International Business Times on March 13 and, despite Cargill’s demonstrated willingness to spend, he said, “The instability has forced businesses to just go about their daily business and not make future plans for investment, expansion and hiring more employees.” In fact, Williams, who does double-duty as Director of Government Affairs at the private equity firm SigmaBleyzer, claimed, “Business plans have been at a standstill.”

Apparently, he wasn’t aware of Cargill’s investment, which is odd given the fact that he could’ve simply called Van A. Yeutter, Vice President for Corporate Affairs at Cargill, and asked him about his company’s quite active business plan. There is little doubt Williams has the phone number because Mr. Yuetter serves on the Executive Committee of the selfsame U.S.-Ukraine Business Council. It’s quite a cozy investment club, too...

[jeff47]

6. Whatever you do, don't look at Ukraine's internal politics.

It's always the US doing things from the outside. Ukraine's previous government did not suddenly change their position from that which they used to get elected. It's all about evil Americans trying to force their way in. Those little people in all those other countries just don't matter.

A large chunk of the support for the previous government was strengthening EU ties. When the PM torpedoed that and instead got closer to Russia, that upset a lot of Ukrainians who used to support the government. That lead to some attempts at appeasement, which worked for a time. But then the old government pissed off the people again. And then it was overthrown.

To put this in US terms, imagine Obama invaded Iran in 2009. Those of us who supported him in 2008 might have not liked that.

[zeemike]

8. Kick and R...

Some good reads here...thanks to all that posted them.

[bemildred]

15. Thanks. nt