Foreign Affairs

TexasTowelie

(112,357 posts) Fri Apr 19, 2024, 01:35 AM Apr 19

18 Apr: Revolt! Russians refuse unhinged commander's orders & desert en masse. - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 785: Apr 18

Today, there are a lot of updates from the Avdiivka direction.

Here, Russians have advanced through the fields behind Avdiivka and are attempting to cross the Durna River and break through the next Ukrainian line of defense.

As you remember from the previous report, after the Russians took control over the settlements in the fields, they tried to cross the river in as many places as possible. Most of these crossings are situated around the Ukrainian settlement of Semenivka. This makes Semenivka a natural target for Russian forces. Ukrainian and Russian soldiers in the area both state that Russians are actively trying to breach the Ukrainian defense here and establish a bridgehead in the settlement.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrski recently stated that Ukrainian forces had completely rotated their elements, which had already been fighting in the direction of Avdiivka for over two years. This allows the Ukrainian formations to recuperate and recover their losses so they can be ready to fight another day. In contrast, the newly arrived Ukrainian brigades are well-rested and ready to defend against the Russian attacks.

A Russian military blogger claimed that Russian forces are trying to take control of the Ukrainian lines of communication in Semenivka. This is not surprising, as the Ukrainian defenses behind the river are supported by a good road network, which significantly improves Ukrainian logistics. This allows not only easier transportation of ammunition, wounded, and reinforcements to and from the front but also makes counterattacks easier and more effective for the Ukrainian defenders. Russians, however, stay severely limited in their attack vectors, as they are limited by the suitable crossing points over the river.

In preparation for their attacks, Russians are concentrating their forces in the newly occupied settlement of Orlivka.

To prevent this build-up of forces, Ukrainians use two different tactics. Firstly, drone operators use FPV-kamikaze drones, together with artillery crews, to monitor and destroy observed Russian movements and positions in the settlement. Ukrainians have released over a dozen geolocated combat videos showcasing such attacks on Russian infantry, vehicles, and hideouts.

Secondly, Ukrainians perform surprise counterattacks on the settlement, ambushing Russian infantry who feel they are purely on the offensive. The well-known third assault brigade released geolocated combat footage, showing how they quickly set up and executed such an attack. As a result, they destroyed the Russian position and managed to pull back to safety before other Russian forces could react.

Despite these efforts, a Ukrainian officer active in the area stated that Russian forces seem to be able to at least partially replace and reinforce these lost detachments. Russians likely use the old Avdiivka chemical plant as a transit point from where they can quickly reinforce their positions closer to the frontline. The Avdiivka chemical plant gave Ukrainians a significant defensive advantage during the battle for Avdiivka. The solid industrial construction and the many rooms and basements provide excellent cover against artillery fire and drones. Russians seemingly use these features in the same way as a forward operating base for their offensive operations to the North and East.

Ukrainian soldiers active in the area stated that Russians were actively shelling their positions with 120-millimeter mortar shells in preparation for the Russian attack.

At the same time, Russians had also concentrated enough forces in Orlivka to launch several attacks over the river. Russian military bloggers claim that these attacks were successful. They state that Russian forces consolidated positions on the western river bank and entered the first buildings of Semenivka from the South. Other Russian military bloggers were more skeptical and stated that while Russians had entered Semenivka, Ukrainians were actively launching counterattacks on their positions.

Ukrainian forces, however, later released geolocated combat footage of multiple waves of Russian attacks. The first wave consisted of 6 armored vehicles and numerous infantry. The Russian armor first rushed through the fields and over the crossing as fast as possible in an attempt to avoid the Ukrainian artillery fire. This did not work out well for two of them, as Ukrainians destroyed one armored vehicle with artillery fire while disabling another one with a drone. The remaining Russian armor then quickly dropped off their infantry in the Southern part of the settlement and continued their advance...