Putin's Difficult Decision: Ukraine Remains a Danger for Russia

[unhappycamper]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/situation-in-ukraine-puts-putin-in-a-difficult-spot-a-955604.html



The situation in Ukraine remains volatile -- and presents Russian President Vladimir Putin with a difficult conundrum. Should Ukrainian nationalists continue to gain power, pressure will grow on the Kremlin to take action.

Putin's Difficult Decision: Ukraine Remains a Danger for Russia
An Analysis by Uwe Klußmann
February 25, 2014 – 04:31 PM

~snip~

On several occasions in the past year, Putin has made clear just how important Russia's neighbor is to Moscow. At a conference held in Kiev in July 2013, he held a speech focusing on "Orthodox-Slavic values." He paid tribute to "our common forefathers," who, by choosing to adopt Orthodoxy, "made a choice for the entire holy Rus." He mentioned the 17th century unification of Ukraine and Russia.

Putin also spoke of the cultural and economic advances Ukraine made within the czardom and as part of the Soviet Union. No mention was made of the victims of Soviet collectivization: his statements were more focused on the future. The two countries' "shared past" should be the "foundation for the creation of new integral ties." His appeal to Ukraine, Russia's "partner, friend and brother," was clear: The country should not become a partner to the European Union, it should instead join the customs union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

At a September 2013 meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, which brings together leading Russia experts from around the globe each year, he went even further. Speaking of Russians and Ukrainians, he said: "We are one people." He said the two countries not only had a shared history, mentality and culture but also similar languages.

But the now deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych treated Russia like a bride who begins looking for a better match at her own engagement party. And it has become clear that Putin's approach to Ukraine has suffered from the same strategic failing that accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union: Moscow has made a habit of supporting straw-men in neighboring countries -- corrupt leaders that are ultimately toppled by their own people.

[DetlefK]

1. Putin should launch a diplomatic offensive to support Ukraine as a whole.

Even though it will be seen as a sign that he desperately wants to keep his clout on Ukraine, this would allow him to keep a foot in the door and prevent that Ukraine slips too fast towards the West.

Option 1: Break up with Ukraine for the next few decades.
Option 2: Downgrade the relationship to "just friends", try to stay in contact, bide your time and hope for the best.