Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forum"No "aces up the sleeve" left for Russia's armed forces
This ManyRoads has posted reliable stories previously.
No aces up the sleeve left for Russias armed forces, says former military officer Frank Ledwidge
Frank Ledwidge
9 июня 2023
Читать на русском языке
The drone attacks on Moscow which began last week represent a change in the strategic approach of Ukraine to the war. For the first time, it appears to be targeting civilian areas, mirroring albeit at a far smaller scale Russias current approach. There are two clear reasons behind this. First, to demonstrate to Russians that their vaunted air defenses cannot protect them. Second, here is a closely-connected message to the Putin regime: not only are you not immune from attack, but we are now on the offensive. These operations are part of a much larger campaign, which is commonly known as the counteroffensive Ukraines summer operations to retake its territory. Along with the incursions of various evidently Ukrainian-sponsored Russian armed-groups to Belgorod, these are intended to shape the informational and military space to assist the offensive destabilizing and deceiving Russian forces. There has been some comment as to whether Putins regime will escalate. This raises the next question as to what options are available to do so? The answer is simple few, if any. Further, the decision to supply effective fighter aircraft to Ukraine represents an inflection point in the balance of military power, from which Russia will find it difficult to recover.
What options are available for Putin's regime to escalate? The answer is simple few, if any.
Let's start with the ground war. On the battlefront itself, Russia stands on the defensive. The taking of Bakhmut was a classic example of Pyrrhic victory. This relatively insignificant town cost Russia tens of thousands of lives, and consumed vast resources over a period of eight months. More widely, its armored forces are eviscerated, with clear and reliable information available of it having lost over 2000 tanks, about half its original inventory, and as The Insider reported two weeks ago now reduced to drawing from stocks of 1960s vehicles. Tanks captured from the Russian army constitute the largest single supply to the Ukrainian army. Armored vehicles are not being manufactured at anything like the rate required to make good the losses sustained. Efforts to recruit and train men to replace the huge casualties have, not perhaps surprisingly been largely unsuccessful. The consequence is that there can and will be no options available for offensive action on the part of Russian ground forces in the foreseeable future.
Moving into the air domain, Russia is already firing dozens of missiles every day into Ukraine. About 90% of these are shot down by Ukraines air defenses. Those few that get through kill and maim hundreds of civilians every month. It has become clear that virtually no Russian missile system is immune from destruction by Ukraines western supplied systems, notably the Patriot 3, which regularly shoots down the much-vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. It is clear that Russian supplies of precision-guided missiles are dwindling, with recently assembled missiles now being used but so are the older Ukrainian-operated Soviet era S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft missiles. It is highly likely that the purpose of recent and frequent attacks on Kyiv have the purpose of using up Ukrainian supplies of this form of defensive weaponry. However, with western-supplied modern systems flowing in, it is unlikely that this particular objective will succeed. In the medium-term (over the next year), Ukraine will transition entirely to western systems such as the successful IRIS-T, NASAMs and, of course, the Kinzhal-killing Patriot 3.
Frank Ledwidge
9 июня 2023
Читать на русском языке
The drone attacks on Moscow which began last week represent a change in the strategic approach of Ukraine to the war. For the first time, it appears to be targeting civilian areas, mirroring albeit at a far smaller scale Russias current approach. There are two clear reasons behind this. First, to demonstrate to Russians that their vaunted air defenses cannot protect them. Second, here is a closely-connected message to the Putin regime: not only are you not immune from attack, but we are now on the offensive. These operations are part of a much larger campaign, which is commonly known as the counteroffensive Ukraines summer operations to retake its territory. Along with the incursions of various evidently Ukrainian-sponsored Russian armed-groups to Belgorod, these are intended to shape the informational and military space to assist the offensive destabilizing and deceiving Russian forces. There has been some comment as to whether Putins regime will escalate. This raises the next question as to what options are available to do so? The answer is simple few, if any. Further, the decision to supply effective fighter aircraft to Ukraine represents an inflection point in the balance of military power, from which Russia will find it difficult to recover.
What options are available for Putin's regime to escalate? The answer is simple few, if any.
Let's start with the ground war. On the battlefront itself, Russia stands on the defensive. The taking of Bakhmut was a classic example of Pyrrhic victory. This relatively insignificant town cost Russia tens of thousands of lives, and consumed vast resources over a period of eight months. More widely, its armored forces are eviscerated, with clear and reliable information available of it having lost over 2000 tanks, about half its original inventory, and as The Insider reported two weeks ago now reduced to drawing from stocks of 1960s vehicles. Tanks captured from the Russian army constitute the largest single supply to the Ukrainian army. Armored vehicles are not being manufactured at anything like the rate required to make good the losses sustained. Efforts to recruit and train men to replace the huge casualties have, not perhaps surprisingly been largely unsuccessful. The consequence is that there can and will be no options available for offensive action on the part of Russian ground forces in the foreseeable future.
Moving into the air domain, Russia is already firing dozens of missiles every day into Ukraine. About 90% of these are shot down by Ukraines air defenses. Those few that get through kill and maim hundreds of civilians every month. It has become clear that virtually no Russian missile system is immune from destruction by Ukraines western supplied systems, notably the Patriot 3, which regularly shoots down the much-vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. It is clear that Russian supplies of precision-guided missiles are dwindling, with recently assembled missiles now being used but so are the older Ukrainian-operated Soviet era S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft missiles. It is highly likely that the purpose of recent and frequent attacks on Kyiv have the purpose of using up Ukrainian supplies of this form of defensive weaponry. However, with western-supplied modern systems flowing in, it is unlikely that this particular objective will succeed. In the medium-term (over the next year), Ukraine will transition entirely to western systems such as the successful IRIS-T, NASAMs and, of course, the Kinzhal-killing Patriot 3.
Continued https://theins.ru/en/politics/262323
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
6 replies, 1038 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (4)
ReplyReply to this post
6 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
"No "aces up the sleeve" left for Russia's armed forces (Original Post)
BootinUp
Jun 2023
OP
RandySF
(58,896 posts)1. Tactical nukes.
BootinUp
(47,162 posts)3. Putin is not suicidal. nt
OAITW r.2.0
(24,504 posts)4. If he is....
let's hope that sanity prevails below him.
Deuxcents
(16,236 posts)2. What about the nuclear option? I just read a post that says
Hes moving nuclear weapons into Belarus
PortTack
(32,773 posts)5. China has great sway over Poopin and what he does in his illegal invasion..Xi has given the
Complete thumbs down to this.
PortTack
(32,773 posts)6. I hope Ukraine is planning on taking out the drone facility that they and Iran are building
Its several hundred miles east of Moscow, but they cant let this stand