The drone-attack on Putin gives him the perfect excuse to... (Not what you think.)

[DetlefK]

The russian society has always been hallmarked by political apathy: "The government knows what they are doing. Let Putin do whatever he wants to do so long as I got mine."

The Ukraine-War has changed that. Now the russian society is polarized into four camps:
* ~25% anti-war
* ~50% no particular opinion except that they want the war to be over one way or another
* ~25% pro-war pro-Putin
* And a small but growing camp of pro-war anti-Putin activists, especially among the young internet-savy right-wing extremists.

Putin is getting more and more criticism from nationalist pro-war fanatics for not waging all-out war against Ukraine.



May 9th is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating the victory in WWII and the russian soldiers who died there. It's a day usually celebrated with huge military parades....................... And this is a problem for Putin.

* All available soldiers are already in Ukraine. And if they get deployed to parades instead, the pro-war anti-Putin camp will lash out, attacking Putin for NOT sending these soldiers to the frontlines.

* All available tanks are already in Ukraine. Russia is currently scrapping the bottom of the barrel, pulling out mothballed 1950s tanks with WWII-era technology. If any tanks get deployed to parades instead, the pro-war anti-Putin camp will lash out, attacking Putin for NOT sending these tanks to the frontlines.

* Russia is currently fighting in a foreign country. But Victory Day is about defeating invading Nazis. If the public messaging how Russia is fighting Nazis in Ukraine were to EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY go wrong, revealing it as an embarassing, ridiculous lie, this could rile up the russian people against Putin and public support for the war would plummet. The risk for this error to happen is simply too big.

* It's basically guaranteed that the Victory Day parades would be marred by actions of russian anti-war protesters, ruining what is supposed to be a day of national unity.



So the politically best option is to cancel the Victory Day parades. And for that Putin needs a pretext.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/18/russia-scraps-wwii-remembrance-march-on-security-concerns-a80868

Russia on Tuesday canceled annual processions in remembrance of relatives who fought in World War II amid apparent security concerns linked to the fighting in Ukraine.

Millions of people across Russia traditionally march in the Immortal Regiment processions on May 9, the annual holiday commemorating the end of World War II, holding placards of relatives who lived and died during the conflict.

Yelena Tsunayeva, a federal lawmaker and co-chair of the Immortal Regiment of Russia organization’s central headquarters, said Tuesday that the 2023 marches had been called off.

“They won’t take place. At the present moment, a number of regions have already refused as a result of security threats,” Tsunayeva told Russia’s state-run news agency TASS.

...

Moscow’s Immortal March has traditionally been led by President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/4/2167500/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-436-Russians-May-3-Kremlin-drone-strike-may-cancel-Victory-Day-events

In this exclusive Kyiv Post interview, Malcolm Nance explains how he immediately identified the fingerprints of a Russian intelligence operation under a false flag when news broke of an alleged "Ukrainian drone" that exploded over the Kremlin, and why former KGB officer Vladimir Putin would approve of such an operation, and what we can expect next in Russia's war against Ukraine.