Coup calculations in Thailand

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http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-170114.html



Coup calculations in Thailand
By John Cole and Steve Sciacchitano
Jan 17, '14

BANGKOK - With hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters occupying large swathes of the national capital and a series of shadowy armed attacks on their encampments, speculation is rising that Thailand could be on the brink of another military coup. A similar protest movement paved the way for the September 2006 putsch that overthrew former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's administration. But the situation now is substantially more complicated, militating against the prospect of another army-led takeover.

During his more than three years as commander of the Royal Thai Army (RTA), General Prayuth Chan-ocha has earned the reputation for sometimes speaking before thinking. Most recently, the military leader caused a stir when, after several weeks of ruling out a military intervention in Thailand's escalating political crisis, he cryptically told reporters that he could neither open nor close the door to a future military coup.

According to well-placed military insiders, Prayuth's equivocal comments were almost certainly not meant as a veiled warning that the military is preparing to intervene unless a settlement is reached between Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's embattled government and the Democrat Party-linked People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). More likely, they say, Prayuth was building on earlier comments he made that a coup would not resolve the conflict while emphasizing how dangerous the polarized situation has become. This week Prayuth raised concerns that recent attacks on PDRC-related targets may have come from an "armed group".

Yet there are many reasons for Prayuth to stay in his barracks. The government's aligned United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group, also known as the Red Shirts, is capable of extensive resistance to any military intervention, particularly in their strongholds in the country's north and northeastern regions, as well as areas surrounding Bangkok. The army would have great difficulty asserting control in those areas without the use of large-scale force, regardless of the UDD's ability or willingness to stage insurgent tactics.