Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumHow to reverse Mexico's slide into a failed state
Bret Stephens
(snip)
The episode has gained major attention in the U.S. largely because the LeBaróns are part of a long-standing American Mormon presence in northern Mexico. (George Romney, the late Michigan governor and Mitts father, was born in a Mormon colony in Chihuahua in 1907, which he was forced to flee as a child during the Mexican Revolution.) But the reason the killings really matter is that they are yet another reminder that Mexico is on a fast track toward becoming a failed state.
For this, blame a combination of managerial incompetence and ideological inanity from Donald Trump and his Mexican counterpart, Andres Manuel López Obrador. In 2015, I asked then-candidate Trump whether he feared that his protectionist policies would hurt Mexico in ways that ultimately would hurt the United States as well. His reply: I dont care about Mexico, honestly. I really dont care about Mexico.
Since then, Trump has forced a dubious renegotiation of NAFTA but has yet to get the new trade agreement ratified in Congress, causing business uncertainties that have brought the Mexican economy to the edge of recession. It took the administration more than a year to replace its ambassador in Mexico, after the last one resigned in disgust. And Trumps insistence that Mexico militarize its southern border with Guatemala has drained its army of the manpower it needs to fight the drug cartels.
If Trumps actions have been damaging, López Obradors have been disastrous.
His slogan in the face of cartel violence is hugs, not bullets. His strategy has been to increase spending on social programs while urging gangsters to think of their mothers. He has claimed, preposterously, that crime is under control and still insists he has no intention of rethinking his approach. In the Culiacán fiasco, he praised the decision to release El Chapos son while ordering the disclosure of the officers name who had ordered the operation, endangering the mans life. Much of the army officer corps now openly reviles their commander in chief. A parody of a policy has produced a predictable result: 2019 is on course to become Mexicos most violent year in decades, with about 17,000 killings between January and June. In sheer numbers, thats a figure that exceeds the civilian death toll in Iraq at the height of war in 2006.
(snip)
When Mexican presidents have looked at this, its such a daunting task, the former official notes. Its very manpower intensive, and its not just security forces to clear, hold, and build. They have to be supported by strong judicial authorities, which in turn have to be supported by strong prison authorities. Those are the three legs of the rule-of-law stool, and if any of them are weak, it can cause the whole enterprise to topple. In Mexico, all the legs of the stool are cracked. Prisons are out of control. Municipal authorities cower before the cartels. The impunity rate that is, the likelihood that crimes will not be punished is just shy of 99%.
This is not business as usual for Mexico. Either the country is going to get a grip on its crisis of institutions and its deficits in leadership or it is going to increasingly resemble Iraq before the surge, albeit with drug money taking the place of religious fanaticism. Donald Trump might not care about Mexico, but you should. Even if we build a wall, no crisis will ever respect a border.
http://www.startribune.com/how-to-reverse-mexico-s-slide-into-a-failed-state/564680842/
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)It looks worse than I imagined and I bet not many people have a glowing idea about how Mexico is been doing, especially in the North.
This is right next door, so not caring about it and the critical ramifications may prove to be disastrous on the border and beyond.
What a lug nut that Orange Slime is.
MichMan
(11,959 posts)SaintLouisBlues
(1,244 posts)samir.g
(835 posts)SaintLouisBlues
(1,244 posts)AMLO has been in office less than a year. I guess his magic-wand is in the shop.
question everything
(47,521 posts)You don't see any problems with the way Mexico is governed?
I admit, I have not followed closely but I have wondered about it, even before the recent massacre.
SaintLouisBlues
(1,244 posts)Right-wing oligarchs have been fucking up Mexico for 500 years.
Blaming the "leftist" newcomer is ridiculous.