Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumErdogan alerted of incoming coup by Russia
Several Arab media outlets quoted diplomatic sources in Ankara as saying that Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, known locally as the MIT, received intel from the Russian army that warned of an impending coup in the Muslim state.
The unnamed diplomats said the Russian army in the region had intercepted highly sensitive army exchanges and encoded radio messages showing that the Turkish army was readying to stage a coup against the administration in Ankara, Iranian Fars News Agency writes.
The exchanges included dispatch of several army choppers to President Erdogan's resort hotel to arrest or kill the president.
The diplomats were not sure of the Russian station that had intercepted the exchanges, but said the Russian army intelligence unit deployed in Khmeimim (also called Hmeimim) in Syria's Northern province of Lattakia is reportedly equipped with state-of-the-art electronic and eavesdropping systems to gather highly sensitive information for the Russian squadrons that are on an anti-terrorism mission in Syria.
http://news.az/articles/world/110538
DRoseDARs
(6,810 posts)I'm not buying this bridge.
On the Road
(20,783 posts)as opposed to a more secular military government. Especially since Turkey just shot down one of its planes.
Maybe the idea would be that Erdogan would be more likely to lead Turkey away from Europe, especially now that Erdogan owes Putin a big favor.
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)MOSCOW Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized Monday for the downing of a Russian warplane in November and called for Russia and Turkey to mend a bilateral relationship that has become openly hostile over the incident.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkey-apologizes-for-shooting-down-russian-warplane-last-year/2016/06/27/d969e0ea-3c6d-11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)jakeXT
(10,575 posts)While the exact role of the United States in the 1960 coup remains unclear the
evidence available as of now suggests that the White House tolerated the coup
because it had been assured beforehand that Turkey's membership in NATO
was not endangered. 'Although the United States were informed about the coup
d'etat and due to special bilateral agreements even would have had the legal
possibilities to intervene, they did nothing', Fikret Asian and Kemal Bozay note
in their analysis of the Pan-Turkism movement. 'They knew that most of the
putschists were not against the United States and NATO.'
13
The Turkish putschists kept their promise and right after the coup the new ruler of Turkey,
General Giirsel, emphasised publicly: 'Turkey remains faithful to its Western Alliance.'
14
Secret warfare expert Selahattin Celik too relates that the United States had been informed
long before the coup was carried out. 'An officer named Samet Kuscu contacted in 1957 the US embassy
in Istanbul and reported that there was going to be a coup d'etat and gave the names of the officers which
would make the coup.
page 227
https://archive.org/details/GanserDanieleNATOsSecretArmiesOperationGladioAndTerrorismInWesternEurope2005
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Basss rise within the State Department included stints as an advisor first to Strobe Talbott, the State Department official who oversaw US policy in relation to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and then to Republican Vice President Dick Cheney.
Significantly, this career path precisely matches that of Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state who played a key part in the orchestration of the fascist spear-headed 2014 coup that ousted the elected government of President Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine. Bass worked closely with Nuland over the course of three administrations and was presumably groomed to play a similar role.
Before being posted to Turkey, Basss sole previous assignment as a US ambassador was to Georgia, where he was sent in 2009 to coordinate anti-Russian operations with the right-wing regime of President Mikheil Saakashvili. Also a top priority was securing Georgian logistical assistance for the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Before he was replaced three years later, the country had also become a focal point for the funneling of Islamist foreign fighters into the war for regime change in Syria...
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/07/20/anka-j20.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Kremlin has no information that Russia warned Turkey of an imminent military coup, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday, as reported by the Russian official TASS news agency.
---
Putin called the Turkish president and said he hoped Russian tourists would be protected in the aftermath of Friday nights failed coup attempt in Turkey, the Kremlin said in a statement on Sunday. The statement added that the two leaders would soon meet face-to-face.
Despite an agreement last month to resume bilateral cooperation, relations between the Kremlin and Erdogan remain strained over the Syria crisis and Turkeys shooting down of a Russian fighter jet in November.
Erdogan apologized to Putin in June over the downing of the plane, which was taking part in the Kremlins military campaign in Syria. The Kremlin had responded to the incident by imposing restrictions on trade with Turkey.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/putins-spokesman-peskov-denies-russia-warned-turkey-imminent-coup/
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)Erdogan acknowledges they knew about a "military activity" at least 7-10 hours before the coup
https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/754870087535001600
Either the Turkish intelligence is so good, or the Russian don't want to publicly acknowledge their capabilities when it comes to reading NATO communications. And of course it could have been staged in some form....
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I expect Russia would deny it whether they did it or not. So would we.
There is a chicken and egg problem with the secularists and the islamists, it is a fruitless argument to decide who started it. The dispute is ideological.
You could easily also suppose that it was a form of sucking up to Russia by Erdogan to say it, but ...
I have thought it over, and I don't think Putin would want Erdogan overthrown at this point anyway, as you point out he had just made Erdogan submit, now is the time to protect his new minion, win his trust, and such a useful minion he could be.
So assuming Russia had the intel, I can see why they would pass it on to Erdogan and otherwise be so supportive. It means Putin thinks he has a new "partner".
Could very well facilitate the end of the Syrian War.
jakeXT
(10,575 posts)In a statement, Obama urged all sides in Turkey to side with democratically-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but Peters thinks the commander in chief should have just kept his mouth shut, because the people staging this coup are on our side.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/07/16/lt-col-ralph-peters-says-god-bless-those-staging-coup-in-turkey-slams-obama-for-siding-with-islamist-authoritarian/
In March of this year someone from the AEI wrote in Newsweek
Will There Be a Coup Against Erdogan in Turkey?
Turksand the Turkish militaryincreasingly recognize that Erdogan is taking Turkey to the precipice.
http://europe.newsweek.com/will-there-be-coup-against-erdogan-turkey-439181?rm=eu
bemildred
(90,061 posts)It's hard to keep up with the cognitive disconnect these days, and I had stopped paying attention to those guys since the primary became boring, but I can see that all fits right in, they always double down, and this is like disaster-ville for them, total loss of control.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)---
To be sure, theres going to be consequences. If the NATO cannot now hope to encircle Russia in the Black Sea or threaten Crimea, a rollback of Turkeys military intervention in Syria will sound the death knell for the regime change agenda in that country pursued by the US and regional allies.
The neocons in the US and the lobbyists of Americas Middle East allies in the Washington think tanks and the media and the cold warriors in the defense establishment are whistling in the dark.
Bizarre as it may sound, regime change agenda in Syria is now predicated on overthrow of Erdogan first. For Turkey, Russias goodwill is vital for preventing the emergence of a Kurdish enclave along its border, which is a core issue.
The 48-hour deadline given by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance to the Islamic State (IS) to leave their stronghold of Manjib is expiring today (July 23). The horrific air strikes by American and French aircraft, killing over 140 civilians, hint at an imminent no-holds barred offensive.
http://atimes.com/2016/07/russian-diplomacy-aims-to-accelerate-syrian-endgame/
bemildred
(90,061 posts)On Friday, US Secretary of John Kerry announced that he would meet with his Russian counterpart in the coming days to discuss a proposal to bolster a ceasefire in Syria and streamline the fight against agreed-upon groups.'
"The president of the United States has authorized and ordered this track," Kerry told reporters.
"It is the president's desire to test whether or not the Russians are prepared to do what they said during our negotiations in Moscow that they will do," he added.
The proposal would require Damascus to cease attacks against US-backed opposition groups.
http://www.dw.com/en/kerry-announces-fresh-syria-talks-with-russia/a-19422353
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Skeptics in the U.S. government, European allies in the anti-Islamic State coalition and the main Syrian opposition, distrustful of Russia's intentions, are questioning Secretary of State John Kerrys latest proposal for closer U.S.-Russian cooperation against extremist groups in Syria.
Several U.S. military and intelligence officials called the plan naive, and said Kerry risks falling into a trap that Russian President Vladimir Putin has laid to discredit the United States with moderate rebel groups and drive some of their fighters into the arms of Islamic State and other extremist groups.
Some European members of the coalition against Islamic State forces have expressed concern about sharing intelligence with Russia, which they say has been an untrustworthy partner in Syria.
The current proposal, which Kerry hopes to conclude within weeks, envisions ways in which Washington and Moscow would share intelligence to coordinate air strikes against the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and prohibit the Syrian air force from attacking moderate rebel groups.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-usa-russia-analysis-idUSKCN1022OI?rpc=401
bemildred
(90,061 posts)A Democratic presidential nominee with a résumé rich in foreign policy has just chosen a running mate with a résumé rich in foreign policy.
Hillary Clintons choice, first-term Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, serves on the Senates Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees and has emerged as a leading liberal voice on national security. Hes best-known for waging a relentless and at times lonely campaign against the White Houses ability to use military force against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria without explicit congressional authorization.
The Harvard-trained lawyer also happens to have been a mayor of Richmond, governor of Virginia, a key battleground state, and chairman of the Democratic National Committee. He is fluent in Spanish from his time as a Catholic missionary in Honduras and has been through all of this before, vetted but not ultimately chosen by the Democratic Partys then-nominee Barack Obama in 2008.
The pick isnt without risk. Like Clinton, many progressives believe Kaine is too close to Wall Street. While Kaine supports the Dodd-Frank legislation that imposes major regulations on the financial industry, he also was one of 70 senators to recently sign a letter to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau asking for looser regulations on regional banks and credit unions. A devout Catholic, hes also said that hes personally opposed to abortion, which has alarmed some pro-choice advocates even though the Virginia lawmaker has a long record of supporting abortion rights.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/22/clinton-doubles-down-on-national-security-with-tim-kaine-pick/