US, Moscow set to discuss Syria pact Pentagon may not want

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Washington, DC (CNN)When Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow this week, the big loser may be the man who isn't there: Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

Kerry and Lavrov are expected to discuss in detail the possibility of the first U.S.-Russian agreement to share intelligence and targeting data for airstrikes over the battle in Syria, something Carter has largely opposed.

The Pentagon wants some assurances the Russians will live up to the terms of any agreement in which the U.S. makes concessions. Defense officials told CNN that, internally, Carter has expressed skepticism the Russians can be trusted.

State Department spokesman John Kirby on Monday would not publicly acknowledge Kerry and Lavrov are discussing a potential agreement, saying only, "Syria will be front and center; there's no question about that."

http://us.cnn.com/2016/07/12/politics/carter-kerry-lavrov-syria-intelligence-agreement/index.html

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1. As Kerry pushes for coordination with Russia in Syria, others in administration cry foul

The Obama administration’s offer to coordinate air attacks in Syria with Russia has opened a deepening rift between senior national security officials who insist it could quiet Syria’s civil carnage and further larger counterterrorism goals, and those who consider it a counterproductive sellout to the Kremlin.

Secretary of State John F. Kerry, who said last month that reaching an “understanding” with Russia was “the most important thing” in moving Syria forward, plans to push the deal when he meets Thursday in Moscow with President Vladi­mir Putin.

The U.S. proposal, which has not been made public, calls for the establishment of a “Joint Implementation Group” with Russia, through which the two countries would initially exchange intelligence and operational information on the locations of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, and “synchronize” their independent operations against the Islamic State. Once al-Nusra targets have been agreed, they would determine what action to take and “deconflict” their air operations.

In exchange, Moscow would use its leverage to effectively ground Syria’s air force, limiting its operations to non-combat humanitarian and medical-evacuation missions. Both the United States and Russia would recommit themselves to pushing for a political settlement to Syria’s civil war.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-kerry-pushes-for-coordination-with-russia-in-syria-others-in-administration-cry-foul/2016/07/12/83623008-484d-11e6-bdb9-701687974517_story.html

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2. Is Kerry Right? Are Freemen of Syria and Army of Islam Radical Terrorists?

Josh Rogin of the Washington Post caused a stir by noticing something Secretary of State John Kerry said at Aspen last month. Kerry slammed Syrian al-Qaeda (Nusra Front) and Daesh (ISIS, ISIL), then said,

“There are a couple of subgroups underneath the two designated — Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra — Jaysh al-Islam, Ahrar al-Sham particularly — who brush off and fight with that — alongside these other two sometimes to fight the Assad regime . . .”

In his opinion piece, Rogin characterizes what Kerry said as a gaffe that yielded to the Russian position that all rebels against the al-Assad regime in Syria are terrorists. Rogin also defended Ahrar al-Sham (Freemen of Syria) as not an al-Qaeda affiliate or in the line of command of al-Qaeda, though he admitted that it is Salafi and wants a radical Muslim dictatorship.

I’m not sure why the State Department officials who anonymously blasted Kerry think that Freemen of Syria are good guys just because they aren’t al-Qaeda.

And the fact is that they are in fact in a formal political and military coalition with al-Qaeda. I.e. they are playing Mulla Omar and the Taliban to al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri (the 9/11 mastermind to whom the Syrian Nusra Front reports).

http://www.juancole.com/2016/07/freemen-radical-terrorists.html

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3. Debate rages in Clinton camp over Syria policy

A debate is raging among allies of Hillary Clinton over what to do about Syria, a hot spot for terrorism that is likely to be a foreign policy problem for the next president.

Clinton, the former secretary of State and current presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has advocated for a more assertive military U.S. posture in the country, but not all of her foreign policy advisers agree, raising questions about what path she would take if she were to win the White House.

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Michèle Flournoy, who is considered a top candidate to be Clinton’s Defense secretary, over the weekend called the Obama administration’s policy on Syria’s civil war “a mistake.”

“The United States has assumed that this problem is not as important and has heretofore avoided involvement except for pursuing diplomatic negotiations. That’s a mistake,” she and co-author Ilan Goldenberg, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), wrote in The Washington Post.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/287479-debate-rages-in-clinton-camp-over-syria-policy

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4. Turkey PM: greatest goal is to improve relations with Syria and Iraq

Turkey aims to develop good relations with Syria and Iraq, and both countries need to be stable for counter-terrorism efforts to succeed, the Turkish prime minister, Binali Yıldırım, has said.

Turkey has long been one of the staunchest opponents of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, arguing that only his departure can stabilise Syria. That has set it at odds with Assad’s ally Russia and distanced it from a US-led coalition more focused on fighting Islamic State.

Since taking office in May, Yıldırım has repeatedly said that Turkey needs to “increase its friends and decrease its enemies” – an apparent tacit admission that past policies have left Ankara sidelined.

“It is our greatest and irrevocable goal: developing good relations with Syria and Iraq, and all our neighbours that surround the Mediterranean and the Black Sea,” Yıldırım said, in comments broadcast live on television.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/13/turkey-pm-greatest-goal-is-to-improve-relations-with-syria-and-iraq