Turkish threats of intervention after Ankara bombing taken seriously by Barack Obama

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World View: The President has an acute sense about ease of becoming plugged into local confrontations and disputes

Patrick Cockburn


The war in Syria is reaching a climax. The Syrian army, supported by Russian bombers, is advancing north of Aleppo to cut off the Syrian armed opposition from the Turkish border. The Syrian Kurds, backed by US air strikes, are closing in on Isis and non-Isis supply lines in the same area. In the wake of the bomb in Ankara on 17 February that killed 28 people, Turkey is threatening military intervention in Syria in retaliation for the attack. On Friday, President Barack Obama spent one hour and 20 minutes on the phone to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, urging restraint.

“The Turks and the Saudis are always trying to nudge the US into sending ground troops to Syria, but they are not going to launch a large-scale military intervention on their own,” said a former senior diplomat in the Middle East. Turkish and Saudi policy on Syria has hitherto been full of threats and bombast, but it is dangerously mercurial and some form of military action cannot be ruled out, even if it is opposed by the US or Russia.

The US knows that Turkish military action would be directed primarily against the Syrian Kurds and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) that have been America’s most effective ally fighting Isis. In his conversation with Mr Erdogan, Mr Obama is reported to have said that the YPG should not seek to exploit recent gains by the Syrian army north of Aleppo to take more territory. But at the very moment that the two men were speaking, the success of US-YPG co-operation was underlined by a little-reported victory in north-east Syria, where the Syrian Democratic Forces, a proxy for the YPG, captured the important Isis stronghold of Shadadeh with the help of US air strikes.


There is a further reason why the US would be loath to give up its military alliance with the Syrian Kurds. “Over a year ago, the Americans realised that the Turks were not going to close their border with Syria to Isis and other jihadis on its northern, Turkish side,” said the former diplomat. “So the Americans decided to close the border on the southern side, with the help of the Syrian Kurds.” It is this plan which is now close to fulfilment.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-conflict-isis-turkey-barack-obama-ankara-bombing-a6886466.html

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1. DNA report suggests Ankara bomber was Turkish

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_dna-report-suggests-ankara-bomber-was-turkish_413138.html

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2. Kremlin: Saudi Arabian king confirms support for Syrian ceasefire

By Peter Spinella and Shabtai Gold, dpa
Moscow (dpa) - A Syrian ceasefire set to start at the weekend garnered another critical vote of support Wednesday, when Saudi Arabia's king confirmed his country's backing for the plan during a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

King Salman ibn Abd al-Aziz "welcomed the achieved agreements and expressed readiness for mutual work with Russia to realize them," the Kremlin said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia has been a key backer of the Syrian opposition and rebel factions, whereas Russia supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Kremlin announced in a separate statement that al-Assad had confirmed his support for the ceasefire during a telephone conversation with Putin. Al-Assad had already signaled his backing on Tuesday.

http://www.dpa-international.com/news/top_stories/kremlin-saudi-arabian-king-confirms-support-for-syrian-ceasefire-a-48366410.html

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4. Putin explains essence of Russia-US statement on Syria in phone talks with Saudi King

MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has held a telephone conversation with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in which explained to him the essence of the Russian-US joint statement of on Syria, the Kremlin press service reported on Wednesday. "Putin explained in detail the essence of the Syrian settlement proposals put forward in the joint statement of Russia and the United States," according to the Kremlin report.

"The king of Saudi Arabia welcomed the reached agreements and expressed readiness to cooperate with Russia for their implementation", the Kremlin said.

The sides agreed to continue contacts on this matter.

Putin’s previous telephone conversation with the Saudi king was held on Friday, February 19.

http://tass.ru/en/politics/858558

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3. Syria's Assad calls for parliament elections in April

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday called for parliamentary elections to be held on 13 April, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.

The decision comes as international powers seek to halt the fighting in Syria in the hope of bringing an end to the conflict.

A leading member of the opposition’s Syrian National Coalition Burhan Ghalioun described Assad’s call for parliamentary elections in remarks to Quds Press as “an attempt to circumvent the political process supported by Moscow and Washington”.

Ghalioun said that the coming period will witness the outbreak of a new conflict between Assad and the major powers, during which Assad will seek to “cut the road before them” by holding elections and “use the new parliament to give him legitimacy against the international will”. He added that regime leader will not succeed.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/24117-syrias-assad-calls-for-parliament-elections-in-april

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5. Syria civil war: Assad confirms readiness for truce

Syria's president has assured Russia of his readiness to respect a ceasefire deal brokered by Moscow and Washington, the Kremlin said.

"A phone call took place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President of the Syrian Arab Republic Bashar al-Assad," the Kremlin said in a statement on Wednesday.

"In particular, [Assad] confirmed the readiness of the Syrian government to facilitate the establishment of a ceasefire."

Assad described the ceasefire as an "important step towards a political resolution" for Syria's civil war, the Kremlin said in the statement on its website.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/assad-assures-putin-readiness-syria-ceasefire-160224100322583.html

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6. ‘Those who breach Syrian ceasefire should be dealt with severely’

There are a number of armed groups that want to sabotage the ceasefire in Syria, said senior Iraqi state of law coalition member Saad Matlabi. If they try to sabotage they must be dealt with severally, and exposed to the international community, he added.

RT: Do you think this new agreement will hold?

SM: Yes, I think this is the first time the two major international players came to an agreement setting the ground rules for a ceasefire. In the past, there were a number of ceasefires organized by the UN and regional powers, but they lacked the real influence on the ground. I personally and many here think that this could be an opportunity for reducing the amount of violence in Syria and concentrating the attack on the real terrorists in Syria and reaching some sort of agreement that could set the foundation for future negotiations and future cooperation between the superpowers, and followed up by the regional powers. Some of these regional powers are actually in close contact with some of the armed forces on the ground. And some of them are accused of being part of terrorist organizations.

RT: What hurdles do you expect all sides will face to make this work?

SM: I do believe that a number of armed groups will breach this ceasefire. We do have a regional conflict going on. Some of these forces are tightly connected to the regional powers that do not see or cannot accept a political solution that would keep Mr. Bashar Assad as the head of state. So sabotaging this ceasefire is very, very likely. I think this should not be a main cause to cancel the ceasefire. Those that breach the ceasefire should be dealt with severely, and exposed to the international community and those countries that support such elements. The important thing is to have the political will to force the ceasefire and keep the ceasefire as long as possible to enable the political process to begin and to take momentum.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/333463-syria-ceasefire-truce-peace/

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7. Lavrov: Those questioning viability of Russian-US agreements on Syria are calling for war

MOSCOW, February 24. /TASS/. Those who cast doubt on the Russian-US agreements on Syria are in fact calling for war, not for peace, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday at a meeting with Co-Chairman of the Initiative to Reduce Nuclear Threat and member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe Sam Nunn.

"Today there are many people who want to prevent the normal development of cooperation between Russia and the United States. There are even those who are trying to undermine the opportunities to promote the Russian-U.S. agreements and boost our cooperation on the most pressing issues of our time," the minister said.

"Literally on the day when Russia and the United States approved the joint initiative on the ceasefire in Syria, voices could be heard from the capitals of the US allies and from Washington which questioned the viability of this agreement," Lavrov said. "We want to say frankly that these voices are a call for war rather than for peace."

"I very much hope that politicians of your level with a responsible approach to developments will counter these negative trends and promote fair, equitable and mutually advantageous cooperation between our countries," the minister added.

http://tass.ru/en/politics/858573

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8. eBay for jihadis: Al-Qaeda fighters using FACEBOOK to buy and sell 'CIA weapons'

Syrian rebel fighters are using Facebook to buy and sell heavy weapons, guns and ammunition - including 'CIA-supplied' rocket launchers.

One post on a Facebook page shows an AGS-17 Soviet-Era grenade launcher available for $3,800 (£2,731).

Chillingly, further investigation shows that some of the users active on the page display support for Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist groups such as Ahrar Al-Sham and the Islamic Front, prompting concerns that the weapons could easily fall into terrorist hands.

Ahrar Al-Sham have been implicated in the massacre of 190 Alawite civilians in Latakia, Northern Syria in August 2013.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ebay-jihadis-al-qaeda-fighters-7431121

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9. Syrian YPG allegedly uses US high-tech anti-tank missile to blow up ISIS truck (VIDEO)

Pictures have emerged on social media which appear to show Syrian Kurds with an advanced US-produced anti-tank missile. A video allegedly shows a rocket blowing up an Islamic State truck. Washington has denied “providing the YPG with weapons.”

https://www.rt.com/usa/333468-javelin-missile-kurds-usa/

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10. Clinton emphasizes Iran, Russa role in Syrian settlement

Tehran, Feb 24, IRNA – US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton stated that Moscow and Tehran should participate in the process of Syrian settlement.
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Moscow and Tehran must be involved in any political and diplomatic efforts of international powers to settle the ongoing crisis in Syria, US Democratic Party presidential candidate Clinton said, according to Sputnik news agency.

'The Russians and the Iranians are the two biggest supporters of the Assad regime, so they have to be part of any kind of ongoing political diplomatic effort,' Clinton said during a meeting with voters.

The presidential hopeful also urged Russia to cease airstrikes against terrorists in Syria.

http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81977538/

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11. Erdogan says Syria ceasefire must exclude Kurds

ANKARA - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday said Syrian Kurdish militia forces must remain outside the scope of a ceasefire agreed between Syria's warring parties, in a blow to the deal days before it is due to be enforced.

Lashing out at Western policy in Syria, he said the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its People's Protection Units (YPG) militia were a "terror group" just like Islamic State (IS) jihadists and the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Nusra Front.

The issue has already provoked a rare rift between Ankara and its chief NATO ally Washington, which works closely with the YPG as an effective fighting force against IS in Syria.

"If Daesh (IS) and Al-Nusra are kept outside the ceasefire, then the PYD-YPG must similarly be excluded from the ceasefire for it is a terrorist group just as they are," Erdogan told local officials in Ankara.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=75428

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12. Regime Change in Ankara? More Likely Than You Think

There are times when Mr. Whitney is just the thing ...

On Friday, the United States rejected a draft resolution by Russia that was intended to prevent a Turkish invasion of Syria. Moscow had called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to address its growing concern that Turkey is planning to send thousands of ground troops and armored vehicles it has massed on its southern border, into Syria to protect Turkish-backed militants and to block the Kurdish militia, the YPG, from establishing a contiguous state in northern Syria. Moscow’s one-page resolution was a thoroughly-straightforward document aimed at preventing a massive escalation in a conflict that has already claimed the lives of 250, 000 and left the country in ruins.

According to Russia’s deputy U.N. envoy, Vladimir Safronkov, “The main elements of this Russian draft resolution are to demand that all parties refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of Syria, that they fully respect Syria’s sovereignty and independence, stop incursions, and abandon plans for ground operations.”

The resolution also expressed Moscow’s “grave alarm at the reports of military buildup and preparatory activities aimed at launching foreign ground intervention into the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

There was nothing controversial about the resolution, no tricks and no hidden meaning. The delegates were simply asked to support Syrian sovereignty and oppose armed aggression. These are the very principles upon which the United Nations was founded. The US and its allies rejected these principles because they failed to jibe with Washington’s geopolitical ambitions in Syria.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/24/regime-change-in-ankara-more-likely-than-you-think/

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13. Pentagon, CIA Chiefs Don’t Think Russia Will Abide by Syria Cease-Fire -- Emerging alliance of Russi

President Barack Obama’s top military and intelligence advisers don’t believe Russia will abide by a just-announced cease-fire in Syria and want the administration to ready plans to increase pressure on Moscow by expanding covert support to rebels fighting the Russian-backed Assad regime.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan have voiced increasingly hawkish views toward Moscow in recent White House meetings, jointly calling for new measures to “inflict real pain on the Russians," a senior administration official said.

The emerging alliance of Russia hawks exposes discord within the administration among defense and diplomatic officials and could put pressure on Mr. Obama to take stronger action against Moscow. But doing so risks pulling the U.S. deeper into a proxy fight there, with Russia backing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and showing little sign of losing its resolve.

Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, launched last year, has infuriated the CIA in particular because the strikes have directly targeted CIA-backed rebels, U.S. officials say, weakening more moderate forces opposed to the regime.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/479q8s/pentagon_cia_chiefs_dont_think_russia_will_abide/

Edit: The War Party is not happy.

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14. Turkey Should Ally With Kurds in Syria, Not Islamists

By shelling Kurdish troops and allied Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) in northern Syria, killing civilians, Turkey threatens to derail the fight against ISIS in order to weaken Kurdish aspirations.

S.D.F. was formed last year after a streak of victories by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (Y.P.G.) against ISIS in Kobani and Tal Abyad that encouraged non-Kurdish groups to join the fight against ISIS and become Y.P.G. allies. Kurdish-led forces are considered America’s most effective ally in the fight against ISIS.

But in its fervor to defeat Assad, Turkey has helped create terrorist organizations such as the Qaeda offshoot the Nusra Front and Ahrar al Sham. It has also opened its borders to various Islamist militias, providing logistics and aid, and enabling hundreds of ISIS fighters to enter Syria via Turkey. When the S.D.F. liberated the Mengah airbase and the town of Tel Arafat from these terror groups, Turkey responded by shelling the S.D.F.

Turkey claims that its problem is with Y.P.G., but it is really more generally with Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Turkish officials oppose an autonomous Syrian Kurdistan, as they opposed the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq, despite Y.P.G.’s victories over ISIS and its securing of border areas, which stopped the flow of terrorists into Turkey.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/02/24/are-kurds-allies-or-obstacles-in-syria/turkey-should-ally-with-kurds-in-syria-not-islamists

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15. . nt