Saudi Plans for Syria Ground Invasion: Bluff or a Disaster in the Making?

[Jefferson23]

Vijay Prashad and Paul Jay discuss the potential consequences of a Saudi-Turkish invasion of Syria, more likely aimed at Assad than ISIS and on a collision course with Russia (1/2)

- February 17, 2016

Bio

Vijay Prashad is the George and Martha Kellner Chair in South Asian History and Professor of International Studies at Trinity College. He is the author of sixteen books, including The Poorer Nations: A Possible History of the Global South (Verso, 2013), Arab Spring, Libyan Winter (AK, 2012), (co-edited with Paul Amar) Dispatches from the Arab Spring (2013), and No Free Left: The Futures of Indian Communism (Leftward Press, 2015). Vijay's latest book is Letters to Palestine: Writers Respond to War and Occupation. Vijay is the chief editor at Leftward Press, and writes regularly for The Hindu, Frontline, Jadaliyya, Counterpunch, Himal and Bol.

Transcript

Saudi Plans for Syria Ground Invasion:
Bluff or a Disaster in the Making?

PAUL JAY, SENIOR EDITOR, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. I'm Paul Jay.

The slaughter of the Syrian people, the greatest refugee crisis on the planet, known in the mass media as the conflict in Syria, and a great geopolitical game to be analyzed and discussed, continues. On Friday, on the 19th of February, a cessation of hostilities is supposed to take place. Not many people think it's going to change very much on the ground. The talks in Geneva continue on the 25th of February. Again, not much expectations of those talks. The big news, of course, is that the Saudis, Saudi Arabia, are talking about a direct invasion, maybe as much as 150,000 troops. Is that for real? I don't know. If it is for real, it's one of the more dangerous moments in modern history. Some people talking about pre-World War I kind of conflict.

We're going to talk about all of this with our guest Vijay Prashad, who now joins us. Vijay, of course, is a regular on the Real News Network. Thanks for joining us, Vijay.

VIJAY PRASHAD: Pleasure, thanks.

JAY: So, first of all, let's start with the Saudis. They're talking about 150,000 troops, potentially. The Turks have been talking about also participating. They've been talking about the possibility of lending bases to the Saudis. There was a report this morning with the Turks saying maybe they won't do this. The Saudis seem to be serious about talking about it. First of all, what do you make about how real all of this is?

PRASHAD: Well, just to give some background, last summer it appeared as if the proxy armies of the Turks and the Saudis were doing quite well. They have taken important roads that link the cities along the Western edge of Syria, and the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had twice given speeches, once in May, once in June, saying that the morale in the Syrian army was in a very bad way.

At that time, a backchannel negotiation had opened between the Iranians, the Russians, and the Syrians, where there was a serious worry that the government was going to collapse and that the Turk and Saudi proxies were going to basically triumph in Syria. And it is in this conversation that the Russians decided to intervene.

And you know, of course, as people now know, the Russian intervention was unexpected. No spy agency had foretold the appearance of a vast fleet of planes into Syria, which then began to bomb positions not only of ISIS, which was not really the immediate target, but of the proxies of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And it's that bombing raid that gave a great deal of confidence to the Syrian army and its various militia groups to, you know, pursue a very concerted effort against the Turkish and the Saudi proxies. And indeed in recent weeks they have almost secured completely the city of Aleppo. At least, surrounded the city of Aleppo.

This is a big blow to Turkish and Saudi ambitions. And it's out of that frustration that two different kinds of things happened. One was the so-called diplomatic track, that the Saudis were very frustrated with. And I can understand, from their position, why they were frustrated. They were being asked, essentially, to send their people to Geneva to surrender, because that was the nature of the discussion that would have been held in Geneva. And that's why the so-called Geneva process ran aground.

At the other side the Saudis, you know, if not diplomatically, have been interested in more military support to their forces on the ground. Unable to provide more military support, they've begun to speak about some kind of military intervention. I think it's important to recognize that Saudi Arabia has been at war in Yemen since March 26 of last year, and has made minimal gains. You know, they requested Pakistani ground troops. The Pakistani parliament voted against that. And therefore they've had to rely on mercenaries from Sudan, mercenaries from Colombia, and other places. And a major Saudi presence has been bombing by Saudi and Emirati planes from the UAE.

So they've been stretched in Yemen. It's very hard to imagine where the Saudis will get 150,000 ground troops to come into Syria. So much of this seems the me bluster in order to put pressure on the West to somehow ease up on the diplomatic process which would have led to the surrender of the proxies. So I don't take seriously their claims that they're going to send a massive armed force into Syria. I think this was merely to open up some diplomatic space to get a better deal, in other words, for their players on the ground.

JAY: Well, they're kind of at a, a stalemate, standstill in Yemen, if not even losing. Is this a way to get out of Yemen with saving face, because we need the troops to go to Syria?

PRASHAD: Well, you know, when King Salman took the king, kingdom, you know, he appointed his son, Mohammad bin Salman, as the defense minister. And a lot is riding on this monarchy's, you know, this line of succession. This particular side of the Saudi family in the success in Yemen. You know, Mohammad bin Salman himself was on television on May 26, March 26 and 27, the day that the attack began in Yemen. He was shown on TV personally, you know, guiding the air strikes and things like that.

So he is personally invested, the monarchy is personally invested in the Yemen war. And it's, you're right, it has been a standstill. In fact, their aims have not been met at all. So is this merely smoke and mirrors deflecting attention? I very much doubt it, because I doubt that the Saudis are as delusional as to believe that they will be able to have a armed intervention into Syria, even if they have the assistance of the Turks. The Turks are in their own quagmire right now. They have for the last several months been at war against the Kurds again. So I'm not sure that these two countries, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both in their various quagmires, one against the Yemenis, one against the Kurds, will be able to muster the kind of military force necessary to counter not only, by the way, not only the Syrian army, but the Russians.

in full: http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=15672

[bemildred]

1. We appear to have told the Turks and Sauds that we don't have their back in Syria.

Nothing official, but several otherwise unrelated "expert" sources for the idea at this point. Good to know. Not sure what else the Boy King, the War Party, and the Sultan-to-be will come with next . I can't imagine them giving up.

[Jefferson23]

2. Yes and what makes it so worrisome...them not giving up. n/t

[GreatGazoo]

3. Another perspective on the dynamics and recent events

This writer overstates a few connections but has the basic dynamics and risks correct IMHO:

The neoconservative insistence that “Assad must go” comprises a threat to the security of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is the Lebanese force that has twice defeated Israel’s attempt to annex southern Lebanon for its water resources. Hezbollah is dependent on Syrian and Iranian support for its arms and financing. Israel wants rid of Hezbollah.
...
Washington is preparing a Syrian invasion by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the purpose of which is to split Syria in half with Washington controlling the eastern part with the oil fields.

Possibly this is a bluff to get Russia to accept a Syrian settlement less favorable to Russian, Iranian, and Syrian interests. However, the Russian government cannot risk that it is only a bluff. If a US/Turkish/Saudi force were to arrive first in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, Syria would be dismembered.

The Russians can get there first by dropping in paratroopers. In other words, what the insane neoconservatives are doing is giving the Russian government a big incentive to introduce Russian ground troops into the conflict. Once those troops are there, you can safely bet that the insane neoconservatives will cause conflict between them and US/Turkish forces. A wider war will have begun from which neither side can back down.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/02/14/the-neoconservatives-are-brewing-a-wider-war-in-syria-paul-craig-roberts/

[bemildred]

9. He is too emotionally involved with the Neocons.

Perfectly understandable, but not how you do reasoned analysis. You have to leave the loaded language behind.

There are two narratives now: they are going in or they are not going in. It is really hard to say because Erdogan and the Boy King are pretty stupid, and they might do anything. But I am pretty sure we have told them they are on their own if they go into Syria and I'm pretty sure Putin would like nothing better.

I rely on Obama's past minimalism when it comes to warmaking, he is not going to jump in with both feet at this point, and there are too many bad examples lying around nearby.

[GreatGazoo]

10. completely agree on the "too emotionally involved" point

Didn't we give the Saudis a green light last week or was that part of our posturing with Russia?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-libya-usa-idUSKCN0VD2TB

[bemildred]

11. That's all bullshit.

Any ground incursion will require OBVIOUS preparations, which cannot be hidden, much too many people and too much stuff involved; and they have to at least try to give a good account of themselves if they invade, you don't want to give people the idea you might be vulnerable yourself, so you can't just fake it with a demonstration or reconnaissance in force kind of thing. You have to try to kick some ass, and that will be very hard to do without air cover/air support.

Guerrillas of various sorts and other retaliation are to be expected, Erdogan is not one to suffer loss quietly.

[bemildred]

12. I interpreted Ash's statement as humoring the Boy King.

The Neocons do indeed want to give it one more try, not denying that.

[bemildred]

18. Strategic depth meets precious loneliness

Turkey lost the initiative in Syria years ago because of two major mistakes. The first was to underestimate the longevity and entrenchment of the regime in Damascus. In other words, Syria was not like Tunisia, Libya or Egypt. Unlike in these Arab Spring countries were police states were toppled one after another, there was a clear sectarian dimension in the nature of the political regime of Damascus. More importantly, the sectarian nature of the regime in Syria reflected the very sensitive balance of power in the larger Middle East.

---

Turkey's second monumental failure was to think that the worsening Kurdish problem at home would have no impact on Kurdish dynamics in Syria. The end of the peace process between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) was bound to spill over to Syria. When the conflict began in Syria, Ankara was conducting negotiations with the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. As late as 2013, the whole world was praising Turkey for finally coming to terms with the Kurdish question through a strategy of co-opting rather than confronting the Kurds.

Imagine where Turkey's Syria policy would be today had the peace process between Ankara and the PKK continued in 2014 and 2015? Wouldn't Turkey's hand be much stronger in Syria if the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) were under the Turkish sphere of influence thanks to the peace process between Ankara and the PKK? This scenario could have turned Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's neo-Ottoman dream into a reality. Instead of fighting, Kurds and Turks would now be cooperating against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). A larger Kurdish regional entity in Turkey, Iraq and Syria would see Turkey as its best regional ally. To its credit, Turkey achieved part of this neo-Ottoman dream by co-opting the Iraqi Kurdish Regional President Massoud Barzani camp. The more challenging part was always going to be co-opting Turkey's own Kurds and the PKK. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) squandered this historic opportunity because of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's obsession over establishing a presidential regime.

These two strategic mistakes doomed Turkey's Syria policy. As far as Turkey's national interest in Syria is concerned, things went from bad to worse after Moscow's military intervention in the conflict and the inexplicable stupidity of Ankara that led to the downing of a Russian military jet. With Moscow's decision to support the Syrian Kurds, the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) has now the military support of both the United States and Russia. In other words, Turkey's Kurdish nemesis is now backed by two superpowers. The situation could not be more ironic. Today, the PYD (and indirectly the PKK) has the support of both Washington and Moscow, while Turkey finds tremendous comfort in the fact that military giants (!) such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia are firmly behind Ankara. History books will probably remember this AKP era in Turkish foreign policy with a fancy doctrine. This must be where strategic depth meets precious loneliness.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/omer-taspinar/strategic-depth-meets-precious-loneliness_412590.html
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/omer-taspinar/strategic-depth-meets-precious-loneliness_412590.html

[bemildred]

21. US says YPG’s moves ‘counterproductive’ and undermine fight against ISIL

We aren't going to lift a finger ...

US Department of State Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner has said that moves by the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), on the ground outside Afrin and Azaz are “counterproductive” and undermine the US-led coalition's collective efforts in northern Syria to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

---

“… They've attacked areas close to Azaz, including the Menagh airbase. We have been clear to them in our communications with them that this -- these moves we consider to be counterproductive to the overall effort to defeat ISIL. But at the same time, we've also urged Turkey to cease any -- it's artillery fire across the border,” said Toner.

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_us-says-ypgs-moves-counterproductive-and-undermine-fight-against-isil_412601.html

[bemildred]

4. February 17, 2016 | Northern ‪‎Aleppo‬ map update

The crushed pocket around Azaz is in the center. Note the Kurds now have a front with ISIS where the yellow and violet meet below the Azaz pocket. Afrin canton is the yellow stuff to the left, ISIS to the right, Aleppo a bit south of the map, Latakia and Idlib to the southwest of the map. There is some speculation that the Kurds will head East from there, and Assad has said that he supports the YPG (Kurds). Turkey to the North.

[Jefferson23]

6. I don't know about you, if ya ask me it looks like Erdogan and the Saudis are fucked.

Great map update, thanks.

[bemildred]

8. Yep.

And I'm pretty sure Putin us licking his lips.

[bemildred]

5. British policy against Isis in Syria is like 'dog returning to its own vomit', says former British

ambassador

The UK’s former ambassador to Syria has likened the Government’s intervention to a “dog returning to its own vomit”.

Peter Ford, who served in Damascus from 2003 to 2006, blamed Britain as part of the US-led coalition for “prolonging the agony” of the Syrian civil war by supporting the opposition.

In an appearance on the BBC’s The Big Questions programme on Sunday, he argued that Bashar al-Assad must be engaged with in order to defeat Isis.

“Realistically, Assad is not going to be overthrown - this becomes more clear with every day that passes,” Mr Ford said, hitting out at Western analysts for five years of “wishful thinking”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/british-policy-against-isis-in-syria-is-like-dog-returning-to-its-own-vomit-says-former-british-a6879256.html

[bemildred]

7. Syria crisis: Aid arrives in besieged Muadhamiya

The first of several convoys carrying badly-needed aid to besieged areas of Syria has arrived at its destination.

Thirty-five trucks have entered the rebel-held town of Muadhamiya, near the Syrian capital Damascus, the Syrian Red Crescent told the BBC.

Aid is heading as well to Madaya and Zabadani, also near the capital, and to the pro-government northern villages of Foah and Kefraya.

Almost 500,000 people live in besieged areas in Syria, according to the UN.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35597909?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[bemildred]

13. Aid Deliveries in Syria to Begin, Relief Agencies Say

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/aid-deliveries-in-syria-to-begin-relief-agencies-say-20160217-00506

[bemildred]

14. Aid Reaches Besieged Syrian Towns as Agreed in Munich Truce Deal

Beirut: About 100 trucks loaded with urgently needed humanitarian aid started delivering supplies to besieged areas in Syria, part of a truce deal reached last week by world powers.

Syrian Red Crescent vehicles have reached Madamiyet Elsham, Syrian state-run television said. The rebel-held area outside Damascus is one of five towns expected to receive United Nations supplies on Wednesday, the Red Crescent said on its Facebook page. Two towns, Fouah and Kefraya in Idlib province, are mostly Shiite and are surrounded by anti-government fighters.

UN Syria envoy Staffan De Mistura held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem in Damascus Tuesday on getting aid to areas cut off by fighting, a key demand of the opposition at peace talks this month. It’s the “duty of the government of Syria to want to reach every Syrian person wherever they are and allow the UN to bring humanitarian aid,” De Mistura said after the meeting. “Tomorrow we test this.”

Around 400,000 people throughout Syria are trapped in areas choked off by the various parties to the conflict, according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/news/middle-east/370872/aid-reaches-besieged-syrian-towns-as-agreed-in-munich-truce-deal

[bemildred]

15. Dispatch from Atma encampment: ‘Overcrowding is immense, and the lack of general services is real’

Thousands of civilians have fled to Syria’s largest encampment for the internally displaced on the Idlib-Turkish border over the past month amidst daily Russian and regime airstrikes over Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

Located in north Idlib on the Syrian-Turkish border, the Atma camps straddle the no-man’s-land between the two nations in a 5km strip that is no wider than 80 meters.

The Atma encampment is made up of 54 sub-camps. Since opening in 2014, the population has swelled to nearly 60,000 people, most of whom fled their homes in northern Aleppo, Idlib and northern Latakia.

Though the camps are only meters away from Turkey, Ankara closed the Atma border crossing in 2015 and allows only aid convoys through.

http://syriadirect.org/news/dispatch-from-atma-encampment-%E2%80%98overcrowding-is-immense-and-the-lack-of-general-services-is-real%E2%80%99/

[bemildred]

16. 'Medecins Sans Frontieres run by French intelligence', says Assad regime

Syria's representative at the United Nations has defended Russia and the Assad regime from accusations that they bombed a Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) hospital on Monday by saying the organisation is a front for French intelligence.

The MSF hospital in the north-western, rebel-held province of Idlib was bombed twice with two missiles each time on Monday morning. Five patients, including a chlid, five members of hospital staff and a caretaker were killed, with two members of staff still missing presumed dead.

MSF said there may be more bodies under the rubble as there was no complete list of patients at the time. It accused Russian bombers of deliberately targeting the hospital.

But Russia has denied it was responsible, and accused MSF of being part of an attempt to fabricate accusations to blacken Moscow's name. On Tuesday night, Bashar al-Jaafari, the Syria ambassador to the UN in New York and chief negotiator for the regime at peace talks, was also asked about the attack.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12161437/Medecins-Sans-Frontieres-run-by-French-intelligence-says-Assad-regime.html

[bemildred]

19. Turkey builds ‘first two-story container refugee camp’

'We have 1,000 two-story container houses ready right now and 248 more such houses will be prepared within two weeks,' Kilis province deputy governor says



http://aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey-builds-first-two-story-container-refugee-camp-/522735

[bemildred]

23. Syria: UN cites progress in humanitarian aid to population

(ANSAmed) - BERLIN, FEBRUARY 17 - Despite ongoing conflict in Syria, the UN has seen improvement in humanitarian aid assistance to the population, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said Wednesday. He was speaking during a visit to Berlin during which he met with President Joachim Gauck and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Grandi noted that ''a small window of opportunity'' had opened after recent agreement at the Munich conference on Syria.

''I think that the situation will continue to be complicated,'' he said, ''but any progress is progress.'' Grandi also praised Germany, underscoring the ''extraordinary leadership role'' it had taken on in the refugee crisis. At least one hundred lorries carrying humanitarian aid left Damascus on Wednesday towards civilian populations in several besieged areas of Syria after an agreement reached on Tuesday evening between the Syrian government and UN envoy Staffan de Mistura. The firs convoys, organized by the Syrian Red Crescent in coordination with the UN, are transporting aid mainly to five locations: Madaya, Zabadani, Muadamiya Al-Sham, all close to Damascus, and Foua and Kafraya, in the northwestern province of Idlib. The places that will later be reached by convoys are Kafr Batna and Deir Al-Zor, a regional capital in eastern Syria besieged by the Islamic State (ISIS). (ANSAmed).

http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news/sections/generalnews/2016/02/17/syria-un-cites-progress-in-humanitarian-aid-to-population_299e68e3-81f9-4874-b2f9-2b5148a43391.html

[bemildred]

17. Hezbollah says Turks and Saudis dragging the whole region into war

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday accused Ankara and Riyadh of dragging the entire region into war and said “victory” was imminent for his Shiite Lebanese group and its Syrian regime allies.

“They (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) are ready to drag the region into a war,” Nasrallah said in a video address to supporters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah bastion.

He said the two countries have been pushing to send in international ground forces because they “are not ready to accept a political solution to the conflict in Syria, which is why they want to continue the war and destroy it”.

Nasrallah said Riyadh and Ankara planned to intervene directly because their allies “the Islamist rebels on the ground have suffered successive defeats” at the hands of Kurdish and Syrian regime forces.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/hezbollah-says-turks-and-saudis-dragging-the-whole-region-into-war/

[bemildred]

20. Syrian president grants amnesty for draft dodgers

DAMASCUS, Feb.17 (Xinhua) -- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued on Wednesday a presidential pardon regarding military service violations, the official SANA news agency reported.

The amnesty covers the crimes of desertion inside Syria and abroad as well as other military service-related crimes committed before Feb.17, said SANA.

It added that it won't cover the fugitives until they turn themselves in to the authorities to settle their situation.

The reports said that the amnesty gives defectors who fled the country two months to hand themselves in, and one month for those still inside Syria.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-02/17/c_135107347.htm

[bemildred]

22. Turkey's sabre-rattling at the Syrian border means the prospect of peace is more distant than ever

---

This is, in fact, President Erdogan’s last bite at the apple, as his strategy of overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s Shia-backed regime has been thwarted by Russia’s intervention. Besides, Erdogan must have enough on his hands, dealing with the war against the PKK and the Turkish Kurds’ demand for autonomy.

Last June with the capture of Tel Abyad on the Turkish-Syrian border by the YPG another piece fell into place for Syria’s Kurds. Also for Turkey. President Erdogan declared that Turkey would never allow the establishment of a state in northern Syria,and the Turkish military was given instructions to prepare for a cross-border operation. This would have the added effect of bolstering support for the governing AK Party in a new election, as the AKP had just lost its overall majority in the June elections.

However, the Turkish military demurred and insisted on a written directive. At the same time, the Chief of the General Staff pointed out that such a move needed to be justified under international law, not to speak of the reactions from the US and Syria as well as Russia and Iran. Consequently, Prime Minister Davutoglu announced Turkey had “no immediate plans” for such an operation despite a military build-up on the Syrian border.

In October 2012, the Turkish parliament authorised cross-border military operations into Syria “when necessary”, and this mandate was prolonged last September. Erdogan has regretted Turkey didn’t go into Iraq together with the US in 2003 and remarked: “"I don't want the mistakes committed in Iraq repeated in Syria." There is the temptation to double down on his losses, but if Erdogan does, he will bring Turkey down with him.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkeys-sabre-rattling-at-the-syrian-border-means-the-prospect-of-peace-is-more-distant-than-ever-a6879276.html

[Jefferson23]

27. ha ha despite a military build up on the Syrian border...that small thing. n/t

[bemildred]

24. Top News: UNSC criticizes Turkey's strikes in northern Syria

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council criticized Turkey for its strikes into northern Syria that are fueling fears of a serious escalation. As a rapid advance of US-backed Kurdish fighters seized new ground in northern Syria on Tuesday, Turkey fired artillery from across the border to try to halt their advances in northern Syria. "All members of the Security Council agreed to ask Turkey to comply with international law," said UN Ambassador Rafael Dario Ramirez Carreno, president of the Security Council for February. The 15-member council discussed Turkey's military action at the request of Russia, which is waging an air war in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad. Kurdish militias are taking advantage of Russian air strikes to seize territory near the Turkish border, which has infuriated Ankara and threatened to drive a wedge between NATO allies. [Reuters, AFP, WSJ, 2/17/2016]

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/top-news-unsc-criticizes-turkey-s-strikes-in-northern-syria

[bemildred]

25. . nt

[Jefferson23]

26. Well there ya go, it always interests me when they pull out the violating international law

thingie...not that they're wrong in this case..just how they use it when convenient
while ignoring other actors.

*All members of the Security Council agreed to ask Turkey to comply with international law," said UN Ambassador Rafael Dario Ramirez Carreno, president of the Security Council for February.

Anyway, if this is not enough of a hint for Erdogan, not sure what else will work in time.

[bemildred]

28. International law is pretty much what the UNSC says it is, I think.

I know they have various high-sounding theories and principles that are supposedly universal and transcendental and so on, but in practice international law means do what the UNSC says. There you have the potential for enforcement. The rest is like public opinion, it presses, but does not compel.

And you note the rhetorical "international law" used in diplo-speak which means nothing at all and is mainly an insult or prod for someone you don't like.