Russia vs. Turkey in the Mideast (I)

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Among the great European powers that historically faced off on the battlefields, Turkey and Russia probably hold the record when it comes to the frequency of wars.

Maybe only the confrontations between France and England – spanning a period longer than the “Two Hundred Years War” (1711-1917) between Russia and Turkey –could challenge this continental supremacy. After World War I, Russia and Turkey – the former engulfed in a civil war on two continents, the latter the target of Europe’s revenge for the collapse of Byzantium several centuries before – suddenly became partners in the 1920s. Not for long however, a new episode in their confrontation – the subversion orchestrated by the Kremlin, which in 1946 was demanding military presence in the Straits – had a prominent role in triggering the Cold War and the configuration of the bipolar era. During the Cold War, Turkey was in NATO, where she is today too, but one should not omit the fact that she permanently sought to maintain the Black Sea “closed,” in other words to maintain this sea’s port waters under a joint condominium with the USSR (the latest evidence of this dates back from the early 2000s when Ankara opposed Washington’s request to extend the “Active Endeavour” anti-terrorist operation from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea). Could there be a secret agreement over and above the ironclad alliances of the Cold War?

Difficult to say, however at any rate during the post-Cold War period, when NATO expanded to the East, Ankara enthusiastically supported its expansion. Including toward the shores of the Black Sea, namely in Romania and Bulgaria. Their NATO accession in 2004 did not modify in any way Turkey’s stance on the 1936 Montreux Convention that regulates the Allied warships’ access to the Black Sea; moreover, Turkey opposed any amendment brought to it. Through the Montreux stipulations, the access of warships belonging to non-riparian states is strictly regulated from the standpoint of duration and tonnage in relation to the tonnages of the fleets of Russia and Turkey, so completely unfavourably for riparian states that lack fleets significantly comparable to those of their stronger maritime neighbours.

On the other hand, mutual trade relations with Russia expanded exponentially, so that when Moscow thought to “punish” the West for the sanctions enacted for the annexation of Crimea, it cancelled the projected South Stream pipeline and proposed Blue Stream instead, namely a direct link with Turkey that would channel toward Europe the flow of natural gas. Thus, the prioritizing of Turkey on the list of Moscow’s friends, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, an alliance considered at the Kremlin as threatening for Russia’s security.

http://www.nineoclock.ro/russia-vs-turkey-in-the-mideast-i/

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1. Bitter Pill for Erdogan: Russia Leaves Turkey a Helpless Spectator in Syria

It is Moscow which is running the game in Syria: nailed to the ground by Russia’s S-400 air defense systems and state-of-the–art SU-35 fighters, Turkey is now left in the role of a helpless spectator, while the Kremlin is playing yet another of its cards, according to the French newspaper Le monde.

Turkey is already unable to get in the way of Russia's strategy in Syria.

“Ankara has been left in the role of a helpless spectator of the final phase of the Russian plan to help its ally Bashar Assad to remain in the saddle, which it began in September 2015,” says the newspaper.

“Turkey is suddenly being ousted from Syrian land,” it states.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160211/1034579631/russia-turkey-syria-game.html

Edit: Putin likes to rub it in.

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2. Iran engages with Turkey where US and Russia dither

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made an extraordinary statement during an interview with the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper on Wednesday. He ‘tweaked’ the assessment by the Defense Ministry in Moscow a couple of days earlier that Turkey could be planning a military intervention in Syria.

Lavrov is of the view that the mobilization on the Turkish side of the border constitutes only “minor provocations” and he exuded confidence that Washington will not allow “such reckless plans” to materialize.

To be sure, the Syrian tale is taking an interesting turn. Moscow relentlessly piles pressure on Turkey, while Washington does nothing to give relief to its NATO ally. Both US and Russia view the Syrian Kurds as allies in the war against the Islamic State, ignoring Ankara’s insistence on regarding them as ‘terrorists’.

Unsurprisingly, Turkish rhetoric is equally nasty toward both Washington on Moscow. If on Tuesday Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened Russia with another ‘Afghanistan’, on Wednesday, President Recep Erdogan took the pants off Uncle Sam for the dalliance with Syrian Kurds.

http://atimes.com/2016/02/iran-engages-with-turkey-where-us-russia-dither/

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3. The Case for Delisting the PKK as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

Removing the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from the State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) would create conditions for greater security cooperation between the United States and the PKK in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). In exchange for delisting, the PKK could be required to reiterate its rejection of ISIS, pledge to further support the campaign to degrade and destroy the terror group, and officially renounce violence aimed at achieving political objectives. Delisting could also catalyze political negotiations between the Turkish government and the PKK, resulting in an arrangement enhancing Turkey’s security while enshrining greater political and cultural rights for Kurds.

Evolution of the PKK

The PKK was established in 1974, with roots in Marxist-Leninist ideology. Its founder, Abdullah Ocalan, initiated an armed struggle in 1984 to create a Greater Kurdistan on Kurdish-populated territories in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. In 1997, the PKK was designated an FTO based on its history of violence both against the Turkish military and against Kurds which the group perceived as collaborating with official security structures. At the peak of the armed struggle, in the 1990s, the PKK conducted bombings, suicide attacks, and kidnappings, while the military’s campaign sought to drain the swamp of support for the PKK. To date, around 40,000 people have died as a result of the conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state.

In 1999, following his capture, Ocalan decided to abandon demands for independence in favor of Kurdish rights and self-rule within a democratic Turkey. The PKK initiated a unilateral ceasefire in 1999 that lasted until 2004.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/case-delisting-pkk-foreign-terrorist-organization

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4. US will not rule out Saudi ground troops being sent into Syria

The US defence secretary has refused to rule out Saudi Arabia sending ground troops into Syria, but added that it was just one option and there were other ways the Saudis could contribute to the fight against Islamic State.

Ash Carter was speaking on the eve of a meeting of defence ministers from 49 countries at Nato headquarters to discuss how to step up efforts against Isis in Syria and Iraq.

He said the meeting was important “because we do need to accelerate the campaign and we have a very clear operational picture of how to do it. Now we just need the resources and the forces to fall in behind it.”

The speed of the advance into northern Syria of government troops, supported by Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed militia, has taken the US-led coalition by surprise.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/us-will-not-rule-out-saudi-ground-troops-being-sent-into-syria

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5. Aleppo Terrorists Lay down Arms, Cooperate with Syria Government: Russia

Moscow says some opposition groups in the Syrian city of Aleppo are breaking ranks with militants and cooperating with the government.

In Dara'a Province, several groups have agreed to lay down their arms, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters in Moscow on Thursday.

"Syrian opposition groups have been productively sharing intelligence with us. Many are shifting to cooperation with the Syrian government," he said.

Aided by Russian airstrikes, the Syrian army is closing in on the last pockets of militant positions in Aleppo which borders Turkey.

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1788355

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6. Saudi Arabia King Salman Will Visit Russia Next Month over Syria Crisis

Russia says Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is scheduled to visit Moscow in the middle of March following the kingdom’s signal that it is prepared to deploy troops in Syria.

Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov told RIA Novosti on Wednesday that the visit is planned for “mid-March."

Ushakov added that an agenda for the visit has yet to be set.

The announcement comes as Saudi Arabia, a staunch supporter of the Takfiri militants operating in Syria to overthrow the government of President Bashar al-Assad, has voiced readiness to participate in any ground incursion in Syria if the US-led coalition decides to launch such an operation.

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1788345

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7. Russia waits for an answer to its proposals on Syria ceasefire — Lavrov

MUNICH, February 11./TASS/. Russia has offered its proposals on Syrian ceasefire and expects reaction to them from the International Syria Support Group, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the start of talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry.

"We have put forward our proposals on a ceasefire, which are rather concrete," the top diplomat said. "We are waiting for an answer from the US before offering it for consideration of the International Syria Support Group."

http://tass.ru/en/politics/856022

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8. Bullish Vladimir Putin is running rings around the west in Syria

In the fog of Syria’s war, one thing appears clear: Russia is running rings around the US and its allies, militarily and diplomatically. While Washington clings to hopes of a negotiated settlement, Vladimir Putin is changing facts on the ground, just like he did in Ukraine in 2014.

It’s Putin’s game. And, so far, he’s winning.

When Russia’s president piled into the conflict last autumn in support of Bashar al-Assad, Barack Obama said a “quagmire” awaited him. The opposite has happened.

Russia’s military campaign has gradually taken off. Its air power has given Assad’s forces the edge. An effective coalition with Iranian, Lebanese and Iraq Shia militias has been forged on the ground.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/11/syria-vladimir-putin-russia-running-rings-around-west

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9. Lavrov-Kerry meeting begins in Munich

Baku – APA. A meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry has started ahead of the International Syria Support Group’s talks in Munich on Thursday, TASS reported.

“Syria talks taking place on the sidelines of the meeting of the International Support Group for Syria in Munich will be comprehensive and include discussion of the problem of humanitarian access in the areas involved in the fighting. We are going to have serious conversation about all aspects of what is happening in Syria. Obviously at some point in time we want progress on issues of humanitarian access”, Kerry said during the meeting with Lavrov.

http://en.apa.az/-_239216.html

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10. Aleppo civilians protest after call for rebel unification goes unanswered

As a regime advance around Aleppo city threatens to deal a devastating strategic and moral blow to the Syrian revolution, residents of rebel-held neighborhoods organized protests Wednesday demanding that opposition groups unite while calling for the fall of those that refuse.

Unifying rebel groups for the sake of halting the regime's advance, as well as IS and Syrian Democratic Force's incursions into rebel territory in northern Aleppo, is now a life-or-death decision, Mundhir al-Halabi, a citizen journalist in Aleppo city, told Syria Direct Thursday.

“The fate of rebels in Aleppo will be the same [regardless of their affiliation]: either fighting until the death in defense of their land and civilians, or successfully breaking the siege in the province,” said al-Halabi.

For weeks, pro-opposition activists have been exerting pressure on rebel groups in Aleppo and its northern countryside, to no avail, to unite under the Free Syrian Army banner. The most powerful groups in north Aleppo are the FSA-affiliated al-Jabha a-Shamiya—a coalition of rebel brigades—in addition to Harakat Nur e-Din a-Zinki, and Ahrar a-Sham. Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat a-Nusra also has troops inside Aleppo city.

http://syriadirect.org/news/aleppo-civilians-protest-after-call-for-rebel-unification-goes-unanswered/

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11. Little Norway spends big on Syrian refugee crisis

OSLO — While Germany has grabbed most of the attention for its response to Europe's migrant crisis, little fjord-filled Norway has quietly emerged as one of the largest contributors of humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees.

The oil-rich Scandinavian country of 5 million has pledged $1.2 billion over the next four years for people who have fled Syria's nearly 5-year-old civil war.

That compares to $1.7 billion committed by the United Kingdom (population 65 million) and $2.6 billion by Germany (81 million) through 2018.

Based on population, Norway is donating $240 a person, compared with $26 by the U.K. and $32 by Germany. Since 2011, the United States (population 323 million) has pledged $5.1 billion in aid, or $16 a person.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/02/10/norway-syria-crisis/80164696/

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12. Yakış says Turkey may lose territory if it intervenes militarily in Syria

Former Foreign Minister Yaşar Yakış has warned that Turkey may risk losing a portion of its own territory should it decide to intervene militarily in Syria amid an intensified military campaign by regime forces backed by Russia.

In an interview with Today's Zaman, Yakış stated that Turkey may look to occupy the region between Azaz and Jarablus in Syria, which is known as the “Mare Line,” to protect rebels from the opposition but warned that Turkey may very well lose the Hatay province from its territory if things do not pan out the way Ankara expects.

“The world would not accept such interference [by Turkey's military in Syria]. It would not allow the border to be redrawn unilaterally. What's more, if the Turkish military faced defeat, Syria might reintroduce the claim that Hatay belongs to Syria,” he explained.

Syria has never approved of the annexation of Hatay by Turkey in 1939, a year after the province declared its independence from Syria and later decided to join Turkey. But Damascus has not pushed the issue forward with any force so as not to harm ties.

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_yakis-says-turkey-may-lose-territory-if-it-intervenes-militarily-in-syria_412084.html

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13. Towards the End in Syria

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5) We now no longer have good relations with any of our neighbors; Ankara calls this "precious loneliness." So it seems our whole "big brother" (ağabey) complex has hit the wall once again.

6) Our economic relations with Russia, Iran, Egypt and Syria are all on a downward spiral, and most likely we haven't even seen the entirety of the disaster yet.

7) In the meantime, not only have we not seen the support from NATO and our Western allies that we expected and alleged we had, we are also truly at odds with them on a number of different topics.

8) We are also saddened to see that our armed forces are not nearly as ready and prepared for operations as had been implied.

9) We no doubt now clearly see that encouraging the people of a country into an armed struggle against their state is nothing less than murder.

Despite this, however, and quite unfortunately, we hear over and over from the pro-government media bloc warrior-like cries of "Let's enter Syria!" And in fact, there is nothing blocking these so-called warriors from entering. Let them head over; I know we'd be happy to see them go and presumably, it would make them happy as well. Because otherwise, what the voices in this media bloc are really trying to do is drag a country of 80 million -- with national ties in a perilous state, whose military is using tanks and firearms in its own cities, whose economy is extremely fragile and whose domestic stability rests on a knife's edge -- into a madness that can only end in disaster.

http://www.todayszaman.com/op-ed_towards-the-end-in-syria_412035.html

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14. Aleppo victory seen giving Russia first Syria exit ramp, if it wants it

Aleppo's return to full Syrian government control could give Russia an opportunity to scale back or suspend its air strikes, but Moscow is keeping its options open, experts close to the Kremlin and the defence ministry told Reuters.

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Washington wants an immediate ceasefire to allow talks to resume. One Western official says Moscow is willing to discuss a ceasefire, but only from March 1. That would allow more than two weeks to complete the encirclement of Aleppo.

One of Russia's main conditions for such a ceasefire, according to one Russian diplomat, is that the Syrian-Turkish border be sealed in such a way that militants and military supplies cannot cross it. Damascus says it aims for its forces to reach the border and secure it as part of the Aleppo advance.

http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-russia-syria-idINKCN0VK1YQ?rpc=401

They are talking about a Feb. 15 cease fire now.

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15. Turkey has been put out in the cold by the US and Russia

The underlying tensions between the US and its supposed ally Turkey have once again surfaced after a visit by President Obama’s special envoy, Brett McGurk, to the Kurdish PYD (Democratic Union Party) in Kobane in northern Syria.

It was the heroic defence of Kobane by the PYD’s military wing, the YPG (People’s Defence Units), against Isis which won international admiration.

However, Turkey put a different gloss on the visit, and as President Erdoğan angrily remarked: “Are you on our side or on the side of the terrorist organisations?” Turkey has branded the PYD a terrorist organisation together with its sister organisation, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which is outlawed in Turkey. While agreeing with Turkey on the status of the PKK, the US clearly differs when it comes to the PYD, as it considers Kurdish fighters to have been some of the most successful in going after Isis inside Syria.

Now that Erdoğan has reignited the war against the PKK in Turkey as a means of gaining popular support, he is clearly afraid that growing international support for Syria’s Kurds, for example, from the US and Russia will reinforce the demands of Turkey’s Kurds for regional autonomy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/turkey-has-been-put-out-in-the-cold-by-the-us-and-russia-a6867806.html

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16. Aleppo Notebook: the city’s terrorist besiegers will now be besieged

I had been trying to get to Aleppo for ages, but was unable to do so because rebel activity had cut off the city from the outside world. Syrian government military successes at the start of January meant there was at last a safe road. I hired a driver, was allocated a government minder (very handy at checkpoints), and booked into a hotel. Driving north from Damascus, we picked up a 22-year-old Syrian army lieutenant called Ali, returning to his unit after eight days’ leave with his family.

We drove through Homs — miles and miles of utter devastation — and then east on to the Raqqa road. Ali told me that he had been assigned to Kuweires military airport east of Aleppo, which was under siege for three years from Al Nusra and Islamic State forces. He spoke of daily firefights against Isis fighters. For long periods his unit was entirely cut off. When Ali was shot in the chest there was no question of being airlifted out. He convalesced in a field hospital. Eventually the siege was lifted and Ali could return home and see his parents for the first time in more than two years. ‘The secret behind Kuweires was the loyalty of the soldiers. We had no tanks. I lost 82 comrades,’ said Ali. Now his unit is mopping up Islamic State positions round Al-Bab to the East of Aleppo.

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When I returned to London I read in the newspapers that this turn of events was regarded as a calamity. Of course, it does depend on your point of view. Government-held Aleppo was under siege from jihadi forces until late last year. That was never reported. Now the areas of Aleppo held by the rebels are coming under siege. That is reported in the western press as a catastrophe, and has brought a concerned response from the British Foreign Secretary.

Again and again I was asked: why is Britain supporting the terrorists? Western media rightly emphasise Assad’s atrocities. But the Aleppans I spoke to regularly pointed out that under Assad’s regime women can walk alone down the street and pursue a career; that a broadly liberal curriculum is taught in the schools; that Christians can worship at their churches and Muslims in their mosques. These Aleppans have lived under siege from groups hellbent on the imposition of a mutant version of Wahhabi Islam. They know that many of their fighters are foreigners whose ambition, encouraged by Turkish and Saudi sponsors, is to extinguish Aleppo’s tolerant culture and drive every last Christian out of the city. These Aleppans have a point. When the history of the Syrian civil war is finally written, historians will indeed have to confront the question: why has it been British government policy to turn the ancient city of Aleppo into present-day Kandahar?

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/aleppo-notebook-the-citys-terrorist-besiegers-will-now-be-besieged/

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17. Kerry: Diplomats agree to 'full cessation of hostilities' in Syria within 1 week

US Secretary of State John Kerry has said an end to hostilities in Syria will not apply to fighting Islamic State and other terrorists. He also said diplomats agreed to accelerating and expanding humanitarian aid.

http://www.dw.com/en/kerry-diplomats-agree-to-full-cessation-of-hostilities-in-syria-within-1-week/a-19043776

[KoKo]

18. Thanks for all the articles and links...

Much here that I want to read. I've been so involved in the Politics here..I haven't had time.