Tipping point in Syria as Russian air power turns tide for Assad

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Gains by Assad and his allies in the past month have squeezed overland supply lines to Turkey that may represent the last bulwark against defeat for the rebels in northern Syria. Tens of thousands of refugees have already fled toward Turkey, which is hosting German chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday to discuss the crisis. To the west, another opposition stronghold in Idlib is also under threat from government forces.

Russian air power is “allowing Assad forces to advance against previously formidable foes,” said Jennifer Cafarella, Syria analyst at the Washington-based Institute for Study of War. “The regime has achieved a decisive advantage in Aleppo.”

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“As a practical matter, Turkey cannot invade Syria,” said Christopher Harmer, a former US Navy helicopter pilot and analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. “Unless the US is leading the invasion with support from Nato, a Turkish invasion of Syria would be political and economic suicide.”

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“We will continue this operation methodically until we close the border,” he said. “There’s a chance that the more populated areas will be liberated in the next few months and that by June we’ll get to Raqqa”—the capital of Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/pPXiaDdvIcjhPc94907D4H/Tipping-point-in-Syria-as-Russian-air-power-turns-tide-for-A.html

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1. Merkel Voices 'Outrage' Over Syrian Offensive and Russian Airstrikes

German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed outrage over Russian-backed attacks in Syria as a government offensive drives thousands of civilians to the Turkish border, exacerbating the already critical refugee crisis Merkel is struggling to resolve.

"We’re not only shocked, but also outraged, at what’s happened in terms of human suffering in the past few days for tens of thousands of people through bomb attacks, including attacks above all from Russia," Merkel told reporters in Ankara on Monday after meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

The broadside against Russian President Vladimir Putin comes as forces and allies of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad seek to recapture war-ravaged Aleppo in northern Syria, presenting the regime with an upper hand in the five-year-old civil war. The military offensive, supported by Russian air strikes, is triggering a fresh wave of refugees as Merkel visited Turkey in a bid to stem the influx of migrants into the European Union.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/merkel-expresses-outrage-over-russian-air-strikes-in-syria

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2. Syria 'exterminating detainees' - UN report

The Syrian government has carried out a state policy of extermination against thousands of detainees, UN human rights investigators say.

They accuse President Bashar al-Assad's regime of crimes against humanity, in a report for the UN Human Rights Council.

The study says both loyalist and anti-government forces have committed possible war crimes.

Many detainees were tortured, some were beaten to death, and others died from lack of food, water, or medical care.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35521801

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3. Aleppo under siege

We have reached yet another depressing inflection point in the Syrian Civil War. Syrian government forces with the support of Russian air power have cut off the last remaining major supply route to rebels in Aleppo city, setting the stage for a siege. Fearing the prospect of bombardment and starvation, tens of thousands of Syrians are yet again fleeing toward Turkey and the hope of safety. And once again, understandable voices decry the inhumanity of the war and demand that “something” be done to end the tragedy and punish the crimes of the Syrian regime and their Russian enablers.

But the real question remains what can usefully be done? The idea of continued negotiations is clearly out of favour. The government’s military advances have been accompanied by the predictable collapse of intra-Syrian talks in Geneva, with the opposition delegation unwilling and politically unable to remain at the table as the regime tightens the screw on Aleppo. While a new meeting of external powers, the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), is planned for this week in Munich, there is little optimism that it will deliver real progress. US secretary of State John Kerry is holding tight to the centrality of negotiations. But the regime and its backers are feeling too strong for compromise, and the opposition is not feeling weak enough to surrender.

With the regime appearing to build momentum toward victory on the back of wider recent gains in Latakia and Daraa the desired response by many is to put negotiations on hold, increase lethal support to the various factions of the opposition and seek a more favourable military balance for a deal. A central story of the Syrian conflict has been the cycle of escalations and counter-escalations in the continued pursuit of victory by both sides, and we’re likely to now enter a new, equally devastating, phase.

It’s worth remembering that the conflict has faced similar moments before. It was barely eight months ago that some observers, including a large number of Western diplomats, were heralding impending regime collapse as the rebel Army of Conquest advanced through Idlib and Latakia, and the Southern Front strengthened itself in Daraa. Analysis then rested on an unlikely acceptance of defeat by Assad’s external backers and the current talk of impending Assad victory assumes an equally unlikely static position by the opposition’s backers.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_aleppo_under_siege5092

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4. Syria rebels lose new ground to Kurds, regime: monitor

Syrian rebels have withdrawn from three villages threatened by Russian strikes in the northern province of Aleppo that borders Turkey, allowing Kurdish fighters to overrun them, a monitor said Monday.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the rebels abandoned the villages of Aqlamiyah, Deir Jamal and Mareanar on Sunday at the insistence of residents who feared their homes would be bombed.

That enabled the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to move in to seize the three villages, in another setback for the rebels only days after they lost three nearby towns to the Kurds.

Aqlamiyah and Mareanar lie near the strategic Minnigh military airbase, held by rebel groups since August 2013.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/syria-rebels-lose-new-ground-to-kurds-regime-monitor/article/456916

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5. Is Russia helping the US win in Syria?

Summary

Russian air power and Syrian forces are pounding terrorists and their allies, while taking a terrible toll on civilians; keep Turkey out of Syria.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/russia-us-syria-turkey-terrorist-pyd-fsa-is.html