Syria conflict: Government 'cuts Aleppo rebel supply route'

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Syrian government forces are reported to have broken a siege of two villages north-west of Aleppo, severing a key rebel supply route into the city.

State TV said troops and allied militiamen, backed by Russian air strikes, had reached Nubul and Zahraa.

A military source told the AFP news agency that opposition-controlled areas of Aleppo were now cut off from Turkey, to the north, which backs the rebels.

The offensive has threatened to derail UN efforts to convene peace talks.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35485563

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1. Turkey bans Russian observation flight near Syria border

MOSCOW (AP) -- The Russian military says Turkey has violated an international treaty by barring a planned Russian surveillance flight.

Defense Ministry official Sergei Ryzhkov says the Turkish military has refused to allow the mission intended to monitor the areas near Turkey's border with Syria and air bases used by NATO warplanes.

Ryzhkov accused Turkey of creating a "dangerous precedent of uncontrolled military activities" by breaching its obligations under the Open Skies Treaty. The agreement allows unarmed observation flights over the entire territory of its three dozen participants, which include the U.S., Russia and Turkey.

Ryzhkov said Wednesday that Turkey denied permission for the flight after Russian inspectors had already arrived.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_RUSSIA_TURKEY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-03-11-26-20

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2. Major blow to Syrian rebels as regime cuts Aleppo-Turkey supply lines

By Pol O Gradaigh and Weedah Hamzah, dpa
Cairo (dpa) - As Syrian peace talks continued in the Swiss city of Geneva, government forces Monday dealt a major blow to rebels, cutting off their vital supply lines between the northern city of Aleppo and the Turkish border.

State news agency SANA said that troops and allied militiamen "completely cut the supply routes of the terrorist organizations" north of Aleppo and lifted the siege on two Shiite villages surrounded by rebel forces for over three years.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition monitoring group, confirmed that the route north of Aleppo had been cut off after three days of advances by government forces backed by intense Russian airstrikes.

The development is a significant victory for government forces, who have been trying for over two years to encircle eastern Aleppo, the last major urban centre in rebel hands. Rebel-held routes remain open north-west of the city.

http://www.dpa-international.com/news/international/major-blow-to-syrian-rebels-as-regime-cuts-aleppo-turkey-supply-lines-a-48165307.html

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3. YPG advances in N. Syria, Ankara’s red lines crossed

The pro-Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have extended their reach to the west of the Euphrates, an issue that is regarded as a “red line” for Ankara, and have their eye on uniting the cantons in the north of Syria to form a unitary Kurdish entity, according to a report by a Turkish current affairs weekly.

In an interview with the Aksiyon weekly, Şervan Derweş, the spokesperson for the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), largely made up of YPG forces with contingents of Arab tribesmen from northeast Syria, expressed his anger at Turkey and claimed that the YPG had already advanced into territory west of the Euphrates. “Anyone who doesn't believe can come and see.”

“Turkey is helping [the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant] ISIL. Turkey is crossing the border [into Syria] at Jarabulus and allowing ISIL to breathe. Whoever helps the terrorists is a terrorist to us, and we will fight them,” he said, referring to Turkey. “By moving into the area west of the Euphrates, we have squeezed ISIL.”

Turkish authorities previously warned the YPG not to go west of the Euphrates or risk facing a Turkish military response. If the political party affiliated with the YPG, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), establishes itself west of the river, Turkey is worried that the Syrian Kurdish PYD will be able to unite the cantons of Kobani, Jazira and Afrin and establish an unbroken Kurdish entity in northern Syria.

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_ypg-advances-in-n-syria-ankaras-red-lines-crossed_411278.html

[Jesus Malverde]

4. Screw Edgrogan

What a loser.

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5. Hi Jesus.

He is going to have to make a decision now, the Kurds have crossed the Euphrates and the rebels in Latakia up to North of Aleppo are cut off.

[Jesus Malverde]

9. LOL

Ball is in his court, and the CIA's.

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10. I don't think there is much they can do.

They are trying to use the talks as an excuse to stop the losses on the ground, but the Russians are not that naive, and Assad wants to finish the job.

Which is pretty much the norm, when winning they want to finish exterminating their opponents, and when losing they want to stop and talk about a settlement.

[Jesus Malverde]

11. Agreed

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18. Erdogan’s Foreign Policy Is in Ruins

It wasn’t long ago that Turkish foreign policy was the talk of the town. Defined by the catchy phrase of “zero problems with the neighbors,” Turkey aimed to both improve relations with its neighborhood and slowly emerge as the dominant regional power. It was a classic case of enhancing soft power through democratization and economic reforms at home, coupled with shrewd diplomacy aimed at establishing Ankara as a mediator in the region’s conflicts.

This policy lies in ruins today. It is the victim of the unpredictable turnabout in the Arab Spring, especially in Syria; hubris; and miscalculations in domestic and foreign policy. With the exception of the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, Turkey’s relations with almost all of its neighbors have soured. At the same time, tensions with the United States, European Union, and Russia have all dramatically increased. If Ankara has any sway today, it is mostly because of its geography — which gives it proximity to Syria and the refugee calamity — and its willingness to use strong-arm tactics in diplomatic transactions.

So how did Turkey’s international ambitions fall apart? It’s a question with multiple answers. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s grandiose ideas of his role in the world, his desire to transform Turkey into a strong presidential system, and the collapse of the Kurdish peace process, itself a casualty of the Syrian crisis, all have contributed to damaging Ankara’s once-promising foreign policy.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/04/erdogans-foreign-policy-is-in-ruins/

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19. The handwriting of Turkey’s disastrous Syria policy

My. "Immaculate shortcomings". I am really starting to enjoy the Turkish English-language press, very creative.

I think it was the fall of 2012. While many who were supporting the government's Syria policy were initially optimistic that Bashar al-Assad would fall, soon, those who were following the conflict with a more informed eye began to think otherwise.

I remember raising the issue in the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) Central Executive Board (MYK) meeting in the summer of 2012. My concerns were met lightly and I was assured that Assad would fall within months, perhaps weeks.

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The damage and loss of credibility is clearly seen in international meetings which we attend. Once praised and put at the center of many regional debates, Turkey is now almost seen as a pariah state, whose foreign policy behavior is erratic, driven by one man and far from serving Turkey's national interests. Not a day passes without strong condemnation of Turkey's authoritarian policies in the international media. The Kurdish issue has become a sample case of how Ankara has nosedived from reconciliation to full-blown war within a couple of months. The human toll, the material cost and the psychological breaking of the bond between Turks and Kurds is enormous and likely to widen, given the continuing scale of the violence.

The AKP leadership's refusal to listen to advice in foreign policy has dealt a heavy blow to Turkey's national interests. Given the track record, I am afraid President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Davutoğlu will not stop until we hit rock bottom. History will condemn both of them ruthlessly for their utter failures, blatant miscalculations and immaculate shortcomings.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/suat-kiniklioglu/the-handwriting-of-turkeys-disastrous-syria-policy_411541.html

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6. What if Russia wants to suffer the consequences?

Until Jan. 29, elementary military technology described a Russian Su-24 aircraft as a supersonic, all-weather bomber developed in the Soviet Union, and a Su-34 as a jet designed for tactical deployment against ground and naval targets on solo and group missions with counter-fire and electronic warfare counter-measures. The main difference between the two aircraft was that the advanced Su-34 was a replacement for the Su-24. Jan. 29 displayed another major difference: Su-24s can be shot down when they violate Turkish airspace while Su-34s cannot.

When a Russian Su-24 violated Turkish airspace and was shot down on Nov. 24, 2015, the Foreign Ministry said the aircraft had indeed violated Turkish airspace and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said the Russian jet was shot down because it had violated Turkish airspace. Crystal clear. However, when a Russian Su-34 violated Turkish airspace on Jan. 29, while the Foreign Ministry said the aircraft had indeed violated Turkish airspace, this time Mr. Davutoğlu said the Russian fighter had violated NATO’s airspace.

How do we define Turkish and NATO airspaces? When is Turkish airspace Turkish airspace and when is it NATO’s airspace? The military and diplomatic jurisprudence displayed by Turkey in two months concludes that Turkish airspace is Turkish airspace when violated by a Su-24 and NATO airspace when violated by a Su-34. Is Ankara telling Moscow that any future violations should be performed by Su-34s instead of Su-24s in order to prevent another shooting incident? If the Russians had sent a Su-34 instead of a Su-24 last November, a Turkish-Russian crisis would have been avoided. What a pity.

Mr. Davutoğlu said he instructed the Foreign Ministry to ask Russia to explain this [Jan. 29 Su-34] violation to the NATO Secretary General. That reveals another supreme feature of the Su-34: That its violations do not concern the country in question but, instead, concern NATO. Russian aviation technology is impressively advancing. A violation by a future Su-44 may prompt the Turkish government to refer the incident to UNESCO.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/what-if-russia-wants-to-suffer-the-consequences.aspx?pageID=449&nID=94678&NewsCatID=398

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7. Russia asks NATO not to interfere to resolve its violation of Turkish airspace

Andrei Kelin, director of European Cooperation Department in the Russian Foreign Ministry, asked NATO not to interfere or play any role in resolving the incident involving a Russian fighter jet violating Turkish airspace, claiming, “There is no concept of airspace within the alliance.”

In a press release given to Russia’s Novosti news agency, Kelin expressed his surprise at NATO’s hinting at resolving the incident of the Russian aircraft’s violation of Turkish airspace, noting: “The issue must be resolved between the two countries; between Moscow and Ankara.”

The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced yesterday that a Russian Sukhoi-34 violated Turkish airspace on 29 January near the city of Gaziantep, which is close to the Syrian city of Aleppo. The violation lasted 25 seconds, despite the fact that the Turkish Air Force issued several warnings in English and in Russian.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed on 30 January that a Russian fighter jet violated Turkish airspace despite continuous warnings by Turkish officials. He called on Russia to move about responsibly and respect the alliance’s airspace.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/europe/23718-russia-asks-nato-not-to-interfere-to-resolve-its-violation-of-turkish-airspace

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8. Syria cease-fire possible ‘if Turkey seals border’

Shutting down smuggling across the Turkish-Syrian border is a condition for halting Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said as peace talks in Geneva began to encounter more difficulty.

It will be difficult to impose a cease-fire unless Syria’s border with Turkey is secured to prevent smuggling and the movement of fighters, he said.

“Regarding a cease-fire, we have pragmatic ideas, we talked with the Americans who head the Syria support group, and we look forward to discussing these ideas at a meeting on Feb. 11,” Lavrov said Feb. 3 in Muscat, referring to the International Syria Support Group that is due to meet in Munich on Feb. 11.

Russia has accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his family of helping the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) through illegal oil trading, claims Ankara has strongly denied.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syria-cease-fire-possible-if-turkey-seals-border.aspx?pageID=238&nID=94696&NewsCatID=352

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12. Walls and watchtowers rise as Turkey tries to seal border against Islamic State

Slabs of concrete wall have sprung up and military patrols have intensified, but local people say this stretch of Turkey's border facing Syrian territory under Islamic State control is still far from water-tight.

Ankara is under intense pressure from its NATO allies to seal off the 70 km (40 mile) strip that stretches from just east of the Turkish town of Kilis to Karkamis, long a conduit for fighters, smuggled goods and war materiel.

Beyond a string of tiny villages nestled in undulating fig and olive groves lies the last stretch of Syrian territory on Turkey's southern frontier that Islamic State militants still hold, following advances by rival Kurdish rebels.

European governments fear that their own citizens who have fought with the jihadists could still cross back into Turkey before heading home to stage attacks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-islamicstate-idUSKCN0VC270?rpc=401

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13. Major Syrian government offensive puts strain on ceasefire talks in Geneva

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Lavrov: Airstrikes 'will not cease'

In comments made in Rome on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Moscow to halt the bombing as parties in Geneva pushed for a ceasefire.

But his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, vowed to continue the airstrikes "until terrorism groups in the Arab Republic are defeated," according to Russian state-operated news agency RIA Novosti.

"Russian airstrikes will not cease until we truly win over terrorist groups: Daesh (ISIS), Jabhat al-Nusra and such. I see no reason to stop these airstrikes," Lavrov said during a visit to Oman on Wednesday, RIA Novosti reported.

Russia's intervention in the Syrian conflict has decisively helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime had suffered major setbacks before Russian air power entered the fray in September.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/03/middleeast/syria-aleppo-offensive-geneva/index.html

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14. 'Weakest position in years': Russia and Assad may have just delivered a decisive blow to Turkey in S

Pro-government forces in Syria have reportedly broken a rebel siege of two villages northwest of Aleppo, effectively cutting off Turkey's supply line to opposition groups operating in and around Syria's largest city.

Government troops, accompanied by Iran-backed Shiite militias and Hezbollah forces, apparently reached the cities of Nubul and Zahraa with the help of heavy Russian airstrikes on Wednesday.

Russian airstrikes across northern Syria had been steadily shifting the epicenter of the war toward the corridor north of Aleppo since late November, in retaliation for Turkey's decision to shoot down a Russian warplane it said violated its airspace.

A stepped-up Russian bombing campaign in the Bayirbucak region of northwest Syria, near the strategically important city of Azaz, had primarily targeted the Turkey-backed Turkmen rebels and civilians — and the Turkish aid convoys that supply them.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-assad-turkey-syria-rebels-aleppo-2016-2

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15. Syrian opposition leader arrives for Geneva talks

Syrian opposition chief Riad Hijab arrived in Geneva on Wednesday afternoon, his grouping said, in a move that could rekindle troubled UN-brokered peace efforts.

Hijab, a former Syrian premier who defected in 2012, went straight to a Geneva hotel to meet other members of his High Negotiations Committee (HNC).

An AFP reporter said that UN envoy Staffan de Mistura also arrived at the hotel, with an opposition source telling AFP saying he was there to meet Hijab informally.

Hijab's arrival was seen as a potentially positive sign because of the weight he carries with the HNC, a Saudi-backed opposition alliance that is opposed to President Bashar al-Assad.

http://www.thelocal.ch/20160203/syrian-opposition-leader-arrives-for-geneva-talks

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16. UN envoy announces 'temporary pause' to Syria peace talks

7 p.m.

The U.N. envoy for Syria has announced a "temporary pause" in peace talks in Geneva amid intensified fighting, saying the process will resume later this month.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with opposition leaders, Staffan de Mistura insisted "this is not the end, and it is not the failure of the talks."

De Mistura said both sides were "interested in having the political process started," and that he had set a new date of Feb. 25 for the resumption of the talks.

The announcement comes just two days after de Mistura opened the first talks in two years aimed at ending a five-year war that has killed more than 250,000 people and displaced an estimated 11 million people.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SYRIA_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-03-12-59-59

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17. Idlib 'on the verge of a catastrophe' as regime severs vital supply route, and with it, cuts off fue

AMMAN: Regime forces reportedly broke through the nearly four-year rebel siege on Nubl and Zahraa in northwestern Aleppo province Wednesday, effectively severing Idlib’s oil supply and portending a humanitarian “catastrophe” in the rebel-held province.

Late Wednesday, regime ground forces supported by heavy Russian air cover reached the encircled, Shiite-majority towns, reported pro-regime media. “Army units operating in the north Aleppo countryside, in collaboration with National Defense Forces, broke the siege on the towns of Nubl and Zahraa by terrorist groups,” reported state media agency SANA on Wednesday.

Syria Direct could not independently confirm whether regime forces had made it through rebel lines to the two towns, pro-regime islands besieged for almost four years by Victory Army rebels.

The potential breakthrough follows a series of lightning regime advances since Sunday to link up its forces north of Aleppo city with Nubl and Zahraa, located approximately 20km northwest of the provincial capital, and ultimately cut off Victory Army rebels in Idlib from rebel positions in the northern Aleppo countryside.

http://syriadirect.org/news/idlib-on-the-verge-of-a-catastrophe-as-regime-severs-vital-supply-route-and-with-it-cuts-off-fuel-access/

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20. Russia needs to give account of 400,000 people killed in Syria: President Erdoğan

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has described Russian allegations about Turkey preparing military action in Syria as "laughable" and said the country needs to give an account of the 400,000 people that it killed in cooperation with the regime in Syria before accusing Turkey.

Speaking at a joint press conference with his Senegalese counterpart Macky Sall while on a state visit to the West African country on Friday, Erdoğan said "I found Russia's approach laughable. First of all Russia needs to give an account of the people that they killed in Syria. The number of people that they killed in cooperation with the regime has reached 400,000,"

The president also said Russia was engaged in an invasion of Syria and accused it of trying to set up a "boutique state" for its longtime ally Bashar Assad.

Air offensives by Russian fighter jets in Syria have recently been the source of diplomatic strain between Ankara and Moscow since a Russian SU-24 violating Turkish airspace was intercepted and shot down on Nov. 24 by Turkish F-16 fighters.


http://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2016/02/05/russia-needs-to-give-account-of-400000-people-killed-in-syria-president-erdogan