Turkish and Russian foreign ministers to meet in Belgrade

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Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoglu will meet Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of an OSCE conference in Belgrade on Dec. 3-4 for the first face-to-face meeting between high-level Turkish and Russian officials since the downing of a Russian jet on Nov. 24.

Lavrov had said on Dec. 2 that he would not refuse to meet his Turkish counterpart in Belgrade later this week.

Çavuşoglu proposed the meeting in Belgrade on Nov. 27. However, the Russian side, at the time, had not yet confirmed that the meeting would take place.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will also attend the meeting in Belgrade.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-and-russian-foreign-ministers-to-meet-in-belgrade.aspx?pageID=238&nID=91973&NewsCatID=352

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1. Turkey looks for non-Russian grain as new deals with Moscow are on hold

MOSCOW/KIEV, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Turkey is looking for alternatives to Russian grain after the dispute between Moscow and Ankara over the shooting down of a Russian warplane placed a question mark over future deliveries and put new deals on hold, traders and analysts said.

Russia has not so far interfered with grain exports to Turkey, the largest buyer of Russian wheat, and vessels are departing Russian ports as normal apart from a few minor difficulties at some terminals.

But traders in both countries fear that either Russia will restrict grain exports to Turkey or Ankara will limit deals with Moscow as the row over the downing of the SU-24 fighter bomber near the Syria-Turkey border on Nov. 24 escalates.

Russia has already banned some Turkish food imports and Ankara is weighing a response.

http://www.trust.org/item/20151202133935-umro7/

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2. 'Change of regime’ needed for Moscow and Ankara to start talking

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It will be very difficult to restore the level of cooperation that Turkey had with Russia before the incident with the Su-24, as it was built through "considerable efforts" since the beginning of the 2000s, Leonid Isayev, an Arabist and a specialist in conflict monitoring, told RBTH in an interview.

"Putin's harsh statement, which provoked rather harsh remarks from the Turks, is capable of burning bridges with each other for years," said Isayev, who believes Russian-Turkish relations will now wither.

Of course, such a confrontation is ultimately not favorable for either Russia or Turkey or NATO, of which Turkey is a member, but in order to forget the rhetoric on the sidelines of the climate summit "at the very least a change of regime" is required – such statements are being taken too personally in both countries.

Vladimir Avatkov, a Turkologist and the director of the Center of Oriental Studies, International Relations and Public Diplomacy, agrees that a change of regime in Turkey is the only realistic way out of the crisis, though he warns that the Turkish regime should not be equated with the Turkish people.

http://rbth.com/international/2015/12/02/change-of-regime-needed-for-moscow-and-ankara-to-start-talking_546759

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3. Russia accuses Erdogan's family of profiteering from oil smuggling

MOSCOW, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) -- The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of profiting from illegal shipments of oil by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group in Syria.

"The main consumer of oil stolen from legitimate owners in Syria and Iraq is Turkey. Top political leadership of the country, President Erdogan and his family, are involved in this criminal business," Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told a press briefing.

Ties between Moscow and Ankara worsened drastically after Turkey downed last week a Russian Su-24 jet for alleged violation of Turkish air space. Russia insisted that the jet stayed over the Syrian territory during the whole flight.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the downing "a stab in the back" and accused Turkey of patronizing illegal oil exports from areas occupied by terrorist groups.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-12/02/c_134878512.htm

[Jefferson23]

11. I wonder if Russia has a People Magazine equivalent..I can just see the gossip and all

displayed by the check out counters on Erdogan and his Bastids!

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13. They seem to be every bit as debased about gossip as the West.

And of course on the Internet, a fountain of unseemly stuff of all sorts ...

I think the government there doesn't mind stupefying its population any more than ours does. Perhaps even more. Tough to call.

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The thing about Erdogan and the ISIS oil story is it is out there now, in the news, not just us nuts on the Internet, and it will have to be addressed.

Non-denial denials and deniability in all its forms is intended to prevent that.

So Putin has kicked Erdogan in the nuts again. And the closing of the Syrian-Turkish border, to the extent that proves possible, is one likely immediate consequence. Some form of autonomous Kurdish territory all along Turkey's southern border is another.

Hmmm. This isn't working too well, for Erdogan, is it?

On the other hand it is hard to see things stabilizing, and end to the war, any time soon. Some truces and exchanges being made though.

[Jefferson23]

14. Yea, they are..Russians are an interesting people. You have the opposition to Putin which is

quite smart, but some of them are plain nuts. The loss of Nemtsov was so terrible for them.

The majority, there is a great deal of unhealthy nationalism and they believe no one likes them,
so they're ripe for the strong man face Putin puts on.

We have ours, that's for sure too..sad to say.

Erdogan has no cover any longer, he blew it. Hopefully something good for
the people of Turkey may arise from this mess, hard to judge right now.

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4. The Wishful Thinking War: a Briefing on Syria to Members of Parliament

by Patrick Cockburn

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn invited Patrick Cockburn to brief Members of Parliament on Isis and the Syrian conflict in advance of the vote on David Cameron’s measure to authorize British airstrikes. Here is the text his briefing.

Britain is on the verge of entering a conflict in Syria in which its political and military strategy is based on wishful thinking and poor information. British air strikes in Syria will be too few to make much difference to Isis, but are important because they signal Britain’s entry into what may be a long war.

In one crucial respect, David Cameron’s approach is similar to that which saw Britain fight two small but unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003, in both cases without an effective local partner on the ground. Similarly in Syria, Britain will be at the mercy of events which are being shaped by the numerous other players in the conflict, all of whom have their own highly contradictory agendas.

Much of the debate around the feasibility of the British strategy has focused on Mr Cameron’s statement that we do indeed have a partner, of whose existence few were previously aware. He said that there are 70,000 “Syrian opposition fighters on the ground who do not belong to extremist groups”. The impression given is that there is a “third force” in Syria which will provide a powerful ally for the US, France and Britain.

This would be very convenient but, unfortunately, its existence is very debatable. “The notion that there are 70,000 moderate fighters is an attempt to show that you can fight Isis and [President Bashar al] Assad at the same time,” says Professor Joshua Landis, the director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and an expert on Syrian politics. But he is dismissive of the idea that such a potential army exists, though he says there might be 70,000 Syrians with a gun who are fighting for their local clan, tribe, warlord or village. “The problem is that they hate the village down the road just as much they hate Isis and Assad,” he said.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/02/the-wishful-thinking-war-a-briefing-on-syria-to-members-of-parliament/

[KoKo]

17. ...! n/t

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5. Guess Who's Against a "Safe Zone" in Northern Syria? US-Backed Kurds

Some folks would have you believe that it would be all unicorns and ponies in Syria if only President Obama weren't so reluctant to use military force. If only President Obama would send more ground troops, or establish a "safe zone" along the Turkey-Syria border, or impose a "no fly zone," or bomb more with less concern about civilian casualties - why, we'd have ISIS whipped faster than you can say, "The Turkish government hates journalists more than they hate ISIS."

"Safe zone" - what an endearing and attractive phrase! Who could object to something so attractively named? But apparently US-backed Syrian Kurds fighting ISIS object. Who knew?

AP reports:

Fighting between U.S.-backed Syrian rebels and rival militants has killed more than 20 people in northern Syria over the past two days, opposition activists said on Monday. The fighting between the so-called Democratic Forces of Syria, which is led by Kurds, and Islamic militants has flared in recent days in the northern province of Aleppo. Most of the fighting has taken place in the border area, where Turkey is examining the possibility of creating a safe zone to protect civilians and moderate rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the fighting is concentrated near the town of Azaz, close to the border with Turkey. Azaz has been repeatedly hit by Russian airstrikes in recent days.

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/33872-guess-who-s-against-a-safe-zone-in-northern-syria-us-backed-kurds

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6. Syria airstrikes: Has the West learned nothing after its 9/11 response?

(CNN)Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron is determined to deal with the threat from international terrorists. Or so he keeps saying. The problem is that Cameron’s proposed air strikes in Syria are likely to escalate the threat, while his government’s policies elsewhere in the Middle East are also providing nourishment to “Islamic State” (ISIS) and al Qaeda.

Just as his predecessor Tony Blair ignored intelligencewarning that invading Iraq would increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks, Cameron is playing fast and loose with the safety of the British public, and the wider world.

The plan for bombing “Islamic State” in Syria that Cameron laid before the British Parliament last week started to unravel almost immediately. In response to the crucial question of what ground forces British air strikes would be supporting, Cameron pointed to a total of70,000 non-extremist Syrian fighters, a number that simply defies all logic. A U.S. initiative to stand up even a 15,000 strong “moderate” force to confront ISIS recently collapsed in failure, having put less than a half a dozen troops onto the battlefield.

One of the central facts of the Syrian civil war is that the original democratic opposition forces have been eclipsed by ISIS, the Syrian branch of al Qaeda, and other religious fundamentalist factions. The suggestion that 70,000 genuinely non-extremist, Sunni Arab troops exist, let alone that they are willing and able to reclaim ISIS-held territory, is reminiscent of how the Blair government misrepresented intelligence to justify invading Iraq twelve years ago.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/12/syria-airstrikes-has-the-west-learned-nothing-after-its-911-response/

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7. ‘Secret’ German plan to resettle 500,000 Syrian refugees across Europe unveiled this week

By TOM BATCHELOR

According to the Hungarian prime minister, EU and Turkish leaders are set to announce a behind-the-scenes agreement to resettle hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the war in Syria.

It is not known how many of the 500,000 will arrive in Britain, but fears have been raised that a significant number could be drawn to the UK by its relatively generous welfare system.

It comes just days after the EU agreed a €3billion (£2.1bn) funding package for Turkey in return for their help in stemming the flow of migrants passing through on their way to Europe.

Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban warned of a “nasty surprise” for Europeans when the deal is announced in the coming days.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/12/secret-german-plan-to-resettle-500000-syrian-refugees-across-europe-unveiled-this-week/

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8. Political truth and the Syria debate

Discourse over the future of Syria and global terrorism inevitably creates a complex web of inter-connected issues.

That perhaps explains why the Commons debate over a proposed RAF incursion into Syria similarly generated a range of positions and standpoints which frequently straddled party political silos. Perhaps.

Equally, it is entirely possible that the complexity of the debate rather reflects the current UK political map, drawn by the May General Election but not yet delineated in full, owing to shifting allegiances and post-election efforts to gain advantage.

It remains more than likely that the Prime Minister will secure Commons support tonight for air strikes against IS in Syria - or Daesh, the semi-pejorative Arab acronym which David Cameron declared he would now use.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34986211

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9. The Russian Bomber Shot Down by Turkey: Challenging the Accepted Narrative (Part 1)

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3.

So why then was this Russian jet fighter shot down?

Our assessments lead us to two possible scenarios:

One: To embrace the idea that Turkey indeed shot the fighter plane, but reread the narratives. The answer to the above question becomes clear if we were to look back and reflect on what has happened since the Russian intervention. In the seven weeks since Russia began military operations in Syria, nearly all of the gains of the US-Turkey-Saudi-Qatar jihadi coalition have been wiped out. The decisive battle took place more than a week ago at Kuweris airbase east of Aleppo. This was the tipping point for the war although the imminent fall of Aleppo is bound to attract more notoriety. It’s clear now that the Russian-led coalition is winning the war and closing in on the Syrian-Turkish border which will put an end to Erdogan’s and US’s dream of toppling Assad. They both know that if the progress is not stopped soon the bulk of the foreign mercenaries so vehemently supported by US’s regional cronies, will either be killed or captured or move into Turkey to further destabilize the current precarious ethnic dynamics in Turkey.

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Two: There is a second possible scenario that few, not the Russians and certainly not the Turks are talking about, but which we do not rule out: to completely dispense with the current narratives and maintain that the real perpetrators are one of the terrorists’ mercenary groups operating inside Syria close to the border with Turkey and that they did so using a surface-to-air Stinger missile of the variety given to the Taliban in Afghanistan which have reappeared in different war situations since.

http://fpif.org/russian-bomber-shot-turkey-challenging-accepted-narrative-part-1/

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10. . nt

[KoKo]

18. Well..that was interesting.

Will watch for Part 2.

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19. Turkey scheming to help Putin discredit itself, yeah that should be good.

I am skeptical, but curious.

[Jefferson23]

12. Russia can destroy Turkey by supporting Kurds

Why Americans stake on the Kurds



Kurdish military forces (YPG) are the basic military force that shows resistance to the Islamic State in Syria. These forces are part of the military wing of the Party of Democratic Union that is close to the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). After the terrorist attack in the city of Suruc in July, in which the Kurds were killed, Erdogan arranged a provocation on the border with Syria, breaking the truce with the PKK. As a result of such actions, large-scale combat actions erupted in the region.

The terrorist attack in Suruci was committed by Islamic State militants under full control of Turkish special services. For Erdogan, it was a question of power. One had to reduce the popularity of the Democratic Party of Demirtaş that had taken Erdogan's votes at the election in June. Erdogan wanted to unite people in the wake of the "Kurdish threat" by the time of early parliamentary elections in November. Erdogan achieved his goal by shedding blood.

Washington has been implementing a project of independent Kurdistan for quite a while already. Erdogan's new Ottoman Empire does not include this project. However, it is more important for the Americans to have a vassal state of the Kurds that would be at war both with Bashar Assad and the Turks. A month ago, the United States joined the Kurds for an offensive on ISIS militants in Syria's Rakka.

After the capture of the city of Tel Abyad, the creation of a new autonomous region in northern Syria was announced. Washington's decision infuriated Ankara. Declaring Tel Abyad an autonomy is a threat to the national security of Turkey, officials with the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

"It appears to me that the US supports the Kurds in a measured out manner so that they do not destroy Daesh (ISIS) completely, - Yuri Nabiyev, President of the Society for Solidarity and Cooperation with the Kurdish people told Pravda.Ru. - If the Americans were helping the Kurds indeed, the latter would have wiped Daesh off the face of earth a long time ago." Noteworthy, the Kurds are not very much happy about the patronage from Washington - they remember America's support of Saddam Hussein in the past.

How can Russia profit from supporting the Kurds?

http://www.pravdareport.com/world/asia/02-12-2015/132762-russia_kurds_turkey-0/

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15. This is interesting:

Yet, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to achieve even a greater victory, a blogger wrote on Aljazeera.com. "Putin called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. It has not happened yet, at least not officially. However, Syrian Kurdish officials said they were willing to work with those who struggle against the Islamic State and those who struggle for the united, secular and democratic Syria. Such an alliance will change the balance of forces."

It goes without saying that Bashar Assad will do his best to give broad autonomy to the Kurds. If the President of Turkey makes a silly mistake and tries to hinder these efforts by military means, a disaster will be in store for him anyway.

"The Kurds have long-standing historical relations with Russia. These relations are warm and friendly, and, to be frank, it seems that Russia is somewhat late with this support," - said Yuri Nabiyev.

Russia needs to recognize the rights of the Kurds to self-determination in the first place. The Syrian Kurds do not intend to pull out from Syria. According to our expert, the creation of "self-governing cantons" in Syria is important not only for the Kurds, but also for all other communities.

Such enthusiasm. It's sort of like our Neocons.

[Jefferson23]

16. That's a good comparison, sounds like our neocons, indeed. n/t