INSIGHT-In unexpected twist, Assad ally may be Lebanon's next president

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BEIRUT, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Lebanon's political crisis has taken a dramatic turn with the possibility that a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could become president in a power-sharing deal aimed at breathing life back into the paralysed state.

The idea of Suleiman Franjieh, a childhood friend of Assad, becoming head of state has taken aback many Lebanese, not least because of who tabled it: Saad al-Hariri, a Sunni politician who leads an alliance forged from opposition to Syrian influence in Lebanon. He would become prime minister under the deal.

It is no less startling because of the backing it would require from Saudi Arabia and Iran, rival states that wield decisive influence over Lebanon's competing factions and which are in conflict elsewhere in the region, including in Syria.

As the war escalates in Syria, with Iran and Saudi Arabia increasing their support for Assad and his enemies, a new deal for Lebanon seems unlikely to signal any broader understanding to settle regional conflicts.

http://www.trust.org/item/20151130172108-noqnj/

[Truprogressive85]

1. oh boy

So when does the US starting setting up NGO to support the opposition ?

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2. The Lebanese government is set up on a power sharing arrangement.

I took the OP to mean that Hariri actually wants a deal, which makes sense in several ways, Lebanon needs the government to function, and the Assad government looks like it might be around for some time yet.

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3. Insight: In unexpected twist, Assad ally may be Lebanon's next president

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But it would point to a desire to preserve a minimal degree of stability in Lebanon. While badly affected by the Syrian war that has triggered militant attacks, driven a million refugees over the border, and fuelled a political crisis, Lebanon has avoided the kind of civil strife some had feared.

Yet the country has been without a president for 18 months and a unity government led by Prime Minister Tammam Salam is barely functioning. The Hariri proposal is the most serious effort yet to resolve that political stalemate.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iran's supreme leader who was on a visit to Beirut on Monday said after meeting Salam that hopes for the election of a president had increased.

"We hope to witness in the immediate future the selection and election of a president of the republic," a statement from Salam's office quoted Velayati as saying.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/30/mideast-crisis-lebanon-presidency-idINKBN0TJ2AV20151130?rpc=401

[KoKo]

4. Interesting...and a bit more:

From the Article:

Any power-sharing deal needs to reconcile Lebanon's two main camps: the March 8 alliance dominated by the Iranian-backed Shi'ite group Hezbollah, and the Hariri-led March 14 alliance.

The toughest part is winning over other Christians on both sides. Geagea and Aoun are the official candidates of the rival alliances, and a Franjieh presidency risks exacerbating historic rivalries among the Christians.

Hezbollah has repeatedly stated its support for the candidacy of Aoun, 80, its ally since 2006 and head of the biggest Christian bloc in parliament. Yet Franjieh, whose ties to the group are much older, may be a preferable choice for the group as Hezbollah wages war in Syria in support of Assad.

By backing Franjieh, Hariri meanwhile risks fracturing the March 14 alliance which was forged a decade ago out of opposition to Syria in the wake of the assassination of his father, Rafik al-Hariri.

"The ones with a positive view of this settlement argue that a Franjieh presidency will reassure March 8 and Hezbollah, while the presence of Hariri in the palace as prime minister will reassure the other camp. This is what is being marketed behind the scenes," said Nabil Boumonsef, a political commentator.

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5. Yes, like that.

Hariri abandons the regime change camp. I rather expect Hezbollah will go along too, they complain about the lack of governance a lot.