North Korea Is Not Even Close To Hitting The US With A Nuke

[best2002]

As North Korea continues to talk of war against their neighbor to the south, they've also started to threaten the United States, saying that "thermonuclear war" may be on the horizon. Reality, yet again, is not on the side of Pyongyang. The North Koreans still need a few things - a reliable long range, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a nuclear warhead built to fit that missile, and the technology that can guide it through launch, reentry, and hitting the target North Korea has test fired a number of missiles with varying ranges. They've been successful with some short and medium range platforms, but their long range capabilities have been marked with many failures.

These include its Taepodong-1 rocket launch in 1998, which failed to reach orbit, and its Taepodong-2 in 2006, which ended up exploding only 40 seconds after takeoff. They are slowly progressing though, with a new system (they claim is only for launching satellites) called Unha-3 boasting a range of approximately 6,000 miles (Pyongyang to San Francisco is about 5,600). The US is fully capable of defending against any North Korean ballistic missile attack North Korea certainly has the capability of hitting their regional neighbors — Japan, Guam, and South Korea — but a defiant Kim Jong-Un claiming he's ready to launch nukes at the United States, is nothing but talk — and everyone knows it.

(http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/07/17225444-north-korea-threat-of-nuclear-attack-predictable-but-worrisome?lite)

[Mnemosyne]

1. They are probably closer to it than Iran. Welcome to DU, best. nt

[OffWithTheirHeads]

2. Well, when you have a petulant child, fortunate son, running your country

Like we have had,expect the worst!

[longship]

3. Plus, their nuke tests are highly suspect.

No country can hide a nuclear detonation from the US. It has a very reliably detectable signature which is detectable from anywhere on the planet. The US has been in the detection game since Stalin blew off his first nuke in the 1940's, and they are very, very good at it.

According to reports, the last nuke test by the DPRK had the effective yield of about 6 KTons. Recent reports claim that it might have been a uranium bomb. (DPRK's previous tests were supposedly plutonium.)

The difference between the two is important. Also, the previous tests were highly questionable whether they succeeded. But a uranium bomb -- one made from U235 -- is a very simple device. It's like the one which blew up at Hiroshima. It was never tested because of its simplicity. The Nagasaki bomb (Pu239) was tested at Alamagordo before it was dropped on Japan.

I think that the facts will bear out that the DPRK does not have a functional nuclear weapon. Why abandon the Pu bomb for a simpler, and less efficient U bomb? Why did the last test only yield a relatively tiny 6 KTons, about a third of the Hiroshima bomb which was a small nuke by today's standards? Why does the physics community not agree on whether the DPRK actually has a nuke, especially since such a detonation is so easily detectable?

It's simple. They don't have one. It's like everything else about North Korea. They are all bloviating talk and saber rattling; but no substance.

Concerning their nuke tests, it seems like they all seem to predetonate. That's the simplest explanation for the lack of a nuke signature and simultaneously the small yields (on the order of a conventional explosion). I don't think they know how to do it yet. An atomic bomb isn't just slamming a super-critical mass together. There's much more to it. You actually have to trigger the damned thing at the precise point that the super-critical mass assembles. Without a proper trigger -- no trivial task -- the damn thing blows itself apart before it can get the chain reaction going.

I don't think the DPRK knows how to do that yet. Thank goodness.

However, they may have a dirty bomb. Very worrisome if they use it, but not a city buster.

[Niceguy1]

4. the continental us is safe

But our troops and bases in the area are not.

[razorman]

5. There are theories about political instability in North Korea being the cause

of their current belligerence. Regardless, if Kim Jong Pugsley is crazy/stupid enough to order a major attack (especially nuclear) on the U.S. or our allies, I think that there are entities within his government that would see it for the suicidal action that it is. If that is the case, I believe that there is a good chance that Kim will somehow catch a "Russian cold" before the order is carried out. Whatever happens, let's hope that it does not lead to war.