Arctic ice area anomaly since 1979

[GliderGuider]

What's interesting is of course the increasing deviation over time, but even more interesting to me is the increasing variability in the deviation since 2006. This could be evidence of of the "flickering" that is sometimes seen when a complex system approaches a tipping point. Or it might not.

From Nature:

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

[lapfog_1]

1. chaos theory in action

the large variances might well be due to chaotic events as we change from one "normative" environment to a new one.

Or not. The large variances relative to the past might just be "the new normal".

[Binkie The Clown]

2. Looks a lot like the onset of chaos as a dynamical system approaches a state transition.

An ice-free arctic may quite suddenly becomes the new normal.

[GliderGuider]

3. That's what I think it shows, too. nt

[Duppers]

4. Yup. Essence of bifurcation theory.