IEA says 3-fold or greater increase in biofuels possible by 2040

[Recoverin_Republican]

http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/12776/iea-says-3-fold-or-greater-increase-in-biofuels-possible-by-2040

The World Energy Outlook 2015 examines all energy sectors, looking at global energy trends to 2014, the oil market, natural gas, unconventional gas, coal, power, renewables and energy efficiency, along with a section discussing energy in India today. Each sector is analyzed under three scenarios, with current and new policies, as well as a more aggressive 450 Scenario that would result in greater greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. It also examines the impact of low oil prices.

In the New Policies Scenario, renewables meet around 35 percent of the total growth in primary energy demand, the report says. “By 2040, renewable energy accounts for one-third of total electricity generation, one-sixth of heat demand and more than 5 percent of all transport fuel consumption.” The New Policies Scenario assumes that government support for biofuels through blending mandates generally persists. “Biofuel blending mandates are now in place in around 60 countries and, in the New Policies Scenario, demand for biofuels in transport is projected to triple over the Outlook period, exceeding 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) by 2040.” That would be up from 1.5 mboe/d today and would be 70 percent ethanol, with the remainder biodiesel. The report projects investments in biofuels supply will average $15 billion per year over the period, and remain concentrated in the U.S., Brazil and EU, with some expansion in China and India. That will have plunged from the 2007 high of $27 billion, although higher than the $4.6 billion average per year from 2010-’13.

The 450 Scenario projects the impact of “much stronger policy interventions to address climate change [that] leads to a peak in oil demand by 2020,” the report says. Projections for world biofuels demand under the 450 Scenario call for 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and rising to 9.4 mb/d in 2040. Under that scenario, by 2040 world oil demand drops to 74.1 mb/d.

In 2013, the global biofuels share of total transport fuels is 3 percent. Under the different scenarios, current policies are projected to lead to biofuels rising to a 4 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2040. Under its New Policies Scenario the 2025 projections at 4 percent is the same, but the 2040 projection rises to 6 percent. Under the more aggressive 450 Scenario, the 2025 projection if 7 percent and the 2040 projection is 18 percent.
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I have to wonder if in their estimates of future ethanol production/prices they took into account the developments by MIT researchers which demonstrated an 80% boost in ethanol output by increasing the yeasts tolerance of alcohol - using relatively cheap chemical additions. I doubt they included this development. If you adjust to allow for the 80% increase in ethanol production the 18% figure for biofuels share of total World transport fuels would become 32.4% by 2040.


New approach to boosting biofuel production results in ethanol yield boost of ~80%
http://news.mit.edu/2014/yeast-ethanol-biofuel-production-1002

Now Stephanopoulos and colleagues at MIT and the Whitehead Institute for Biomedical Research have identified a new way to boost yeast tolerance to ethanol by simply altering the composition of the medium in which the yeast are grown. They report the findings, which they believe could have a significant impact on industrial biofuel production, in today’s issue of the journal Science.

[font size="+1"]Ethanol and other alcohols can disrupt yeast cell membranes, eventually killing the cells. The MIT team found that adding potassium and hydroxide ions to the medium in which yeast grow can help cells compensate for that membrane damage. By making these changes, the researchers were able to boost yeast’s ethanol production by about 80 percent.[/font] They also showed that this approach works with commercial yeast strains and other types of alcohols, including propanol and butanol, which are even more toxic to yeast.