'Impossible Becoming Possible' as Clean Energy Surges

[eridani]

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/11/10/impossible-becoming-possible-clean-energy-surges

Offering a "clear sign that an energy transition is underway," renewable energy comprised nearly half of the world's power generation capacity in 2014 and is already the second-largest electricity source on the planet after coal, according to a new report published Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

What's more, green power is set to surpass coal in the early 2030s, particularly as oil prices drop and the link between energy demands and economic growth weakens, the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook (pdf) report found.

But a full transition to clean energy can only happen with a concerted global push, IEA said—and humanity has a lot of urgent work to do.

The "plunge in oil prices has set in motion the forces that lead the market to rebalance, via higher demand and lower growth in supply, although the adjustment mechanism in oil markets is rarely a smooth one," the report states. Coal use in China has hit a plateau, which means the "single largest energy demand growth story is near its end." In the U.S., oil demands have fallen by roughly 4 million barrels a day, a level not seen since the 1960s.

Meanwhile, the world's "appetite for electricity" will elevate demand for renewables 70 percent by 2040, IEA found.

As renewables rise, greenhouse gas emissions fall. That means the time to act is now, the agency said

[dumbcat]

1. I'm sorry, but I don't believe that

Offering a "clear sign that an energy transition is underway," renewable energy comprised nearly half of the world's power generation capacity in 2014 and is already the second-largest electricity source on the planet after coal, according to a new report published Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Just, no.

[kristopher]

2. I'm sorry you don't believe that

Easy to confirm via google.

You shouldn't believe this either...

Nothing can compete with renewable energy, says top climate scientist


...He said there was reason for optimism about the Paris talks, where at least 80 heads of state are expected. “That is a very telling thing - a sign of hope - because people at the top level do not want to be tainted by failure,” he said.

If a critical mass of big countries implement their pledges, he said in an interview with the Guardian, the move towards a global low-carbon economy would gain unstoppable momentum.

“If some countries really honour their pledges, including China, Brazil, South Africa, US and Europe, I think we will get a dynamic that will transform the development of the century. This is not sheer optimism – it is based on analysis of how incumbent systems implode.”

In July, Schellnhuber told a science conference in Paris that the world needed “an induced implosion of the carbon economy over the next 20-30 years. Otherwise we have no chance of avoiding dangerous, perhaps disastrous, climate change.”

“The avalanche will start because ultimately nothing can compete with renewables,” he told the Guardian. “If you invest at [large] scale, inevitably we will end up with much cheaper, much more reliable, much safer technologies in the energy system: wind, solar, biomass, tidal, hydropower. It is really a no-brainer, if you take away all the ideological debris and lobbying.”

India, for example, aims to deliver 350GW of renewable energy in the next 10 years, the equivalent to 300 nuclear power stations...

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/09/clean-energy-is-key-successful-climate-deal-in-paris-says-top-scientist

[GliderGuider]

3. World electricity generation by source

As proportions:

Renewables: 6%
Nuclear: 11%
Hydro: 17%
Fossil Fuels: 67%

[Finishline42]

4. I found this RE: New US electric generation in 2014

I found this which is easier to believe. This is for new US electric generation in 2014:

For all of 2014, solar and wind energy accounted for 55% of new US electricity generation capacity, while all renewables together accounted for 57% of new US electricity generation capacity. Natural gas accounted for 42%, coal accounted for 0.6%, nuclear for 0.4%, and oil for 0.3%.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/10/renewable-energy-90-of-new-us-electricity-generation-capacity-in-january-exclusive/

[GliderGuider]

5. Now apply their respective capacity factors. nt

[dumbcat]

6. Yes, I knew about that, and it's true, but

that is not what the OP said. The OP said " ...renewable energy comprised nearly half of the world's power generation capacity in 2014." Which is not believable, and what I said. (Though kristopher seems to believe it.)

[GliderGuider]

7. The increase in actual US electricity generation (not capacity, but output) from 2013 to 2014

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015:

In 2014, the total electricity generated in the US increased by 28.8 Terawatt-hours over the amount generated in 2013. this is an increase of 0.7%

Of this 28.8 TWh total:

2.2 TWh (7.8%) was supplied by fossil fuels.
8.5 TWh (29.4%) was supplied by nuclear power
18.1 TWh(62.8%) was supplied by renewable sources including hydro.

In fact, BP reported that US hydro generation actually declined by about 10 TWh last year, which offset the remarkable performance of other renewable sources (wind, solar and biomass) whose output increased by 28 TWh.

And, encouragingly, solar PV generation increased by 9.4 TWh while wind increased by 14.1 TWh - each of which is more than the increase in nuclear power.

The calculated average capacity factor for American wind installations in 2014 was 31.7%.
The calculated average capacity factor for American solar installations in 2014 was 11.6%.

That's why I don't get too excited about solar PV capacity numbers.

The calculated capacity factor for world wind installations was only 21.6%, so American wind installations outperform the world average by 50%.

Unfortunately for the global climate, any increase in FF use is too much. But we have to take our rays of sunshine wherever we can find them.