Risky Business Project Worst Case: By 2099, Missouri Much Like Arizona, Chicago Much Like Texas

[hatrack]

The bipartisan trio of climate risk prognosticators for the business community — Michael Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, and billionaire investor Tom Steyer — are back. And this time, their Risky Business Project has produced a report focusing in particular on how a world of rising temperatures could threaten the Midwestern region of the U.S.: the Heartland.

Perhaps the most striking finding? A higher prevalence of extremely hot temperatures could severely impact corn and wheat production, the report warns, unless we take serious evasive action. It cites a 1 in 20 chance of an 80 percent loss for these crops by 2100 – the extreme case. The more likely range for losses, says the document, is 11 to 69 percent.

Here’s a figure from the report, whose scientific conclusions are based on research performed by a group of scientific and economic experts convened by the Rhodium Group (their more technical report is here):

EDIT

The new report also says the Midwest could experience more heat deaths, costlier electricity, and a decline in overall workforce productivity. It suggests, for instance, that by the end of the century, temperatures in Missouri could be a lot like they are in Arizona right now — with between 46 and 115 days above 95 degrees per year. Similarly, it says Chicago could become a lot like today’s Texas, having even more days per year above 95 degrees than the Lone Star State currently does.

EDIT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/01/23/the-midwests-climate-future-missouri-becomes-like-arizona-chicago-becomes-like-texas/?postshare=6191422021227249

[pscot]

1. This will defintely agitate the denier community

Since they already hate all three of those gentlemen.

[NickB79]

2. And what will it be like in Arizona or Texas?

Does Minnesota have to start building a huge wall with machine gun turrets to keep those damn Texans out as they flee their hellish Venusian landscape?

[mopinko]

4. i would if i were you.

lol.

[Systematic Chaos]

3. So, they manage to leave one very important question unanswered....

What, exactly, will Arizona be like?

[NickB79]

5. "food production may move north"

Yeah, good luck growing 200 bushel-per-acre corn like we do today in Iowa in the rocky, thin soil that dominates much of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Canada.

We can't simply move farming north and expect to keep yields as high as they are now.