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OKIsItJustMe

(19,938 posts)
Mon Nov 17, 2014, 04:21 PM Nov 2014

Protecting forests alone would not halt land-use change emissions

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/protecting-forests-alone-would-not-halt-land-use-change-emissions
[font face=Serif][font size=5]Protecting forests alone would not halt land-use change emissions[/font]

[font size=4]11/17/2014 - Global forest conservation measures meant to mitigate climate change are likely to drive massive cropland expansion into shrublands or savannahs to satisfy the ever-growing hunger for arable land. The consequent changes in land use could cause substantial greenhouse gas emissions, a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change shows. In contrast to previous assumptions, conservation schemes that focus only on forests may thus fail to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from land-use change. If ecosystem protection policies aim at climate protection, they need to cover the whole range of land types, according to comprehensive computer simulations. To compensate for such restrictions on land use, intensification of agriculture to generate higher yields is important.[/font]

[font size=3]“While protecting forests to abate climate change is definitely worthwhile, our results illustrate for the first time that forest protection policies alone will not be enough to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change”, lead author Alexander Popp of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) says. Roughly one tenth of overall man-made greenhouse gas emissions originate in changes of land use - mainly due to the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, as the forests store much more carbon in their lush plant cover and pristine soil. Mechanisms that aim to reduce emissions from deforestation are therefore widely discussed.

A crucial challenge is to avoid merely displacing emissions instead of reducing them. While forest protection according to the scientists could save 77 billion tons of CO2 emissions up to 2100, it would also trigger cropland expansion into non-forested areas, releasing 96 billion tons of CO2. “Our study shows that, without further management, a global implementation of forest conservation schemes could lead to new type of carbon leakage,” Popp explains. While carbon leakage usually means that emissions are shifted from one country to another to evade emission restrictions, forest protection schemes might inadvertently shift emissions to other vegetation types.



“The results show that the largest benefits for climate change mitigation could be achieved by a full participation of all countries in a forest conservation scheme and the inclusion of other land types with high carbon content, like wet savannahs,” Popp says. Comprehensive conservation policies could also account for additional environmental assets like biodiversity: Reducing land-use change provides a huge opportunity to protect biodiversity as a co-benefit of maintaining carbon stocks.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2444
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