China's State Council Abandons Grain Self-Suffiiciency Policy

[hatrack]

China's State Council has set grain output targets below domestic consumption rates, effectively abandoning its long-standing grain self-sufficiency policy, Financial Times reported. The guidelines call for grain production to “stabilize” at roughly 550m tonnes by 2020, below the 2013 harvest of 602m tonnes. “While putting emphasis on food quantity, pay more attention to food safety and quality,” a document said, in a shift in tone and emphasis.

EDIT

http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-ditches-grain-self-sufficiency-policy

[happyslug]

1. A almost 10% drop in grain production in seven years?

To say you are reducing quantity for quality sounds good, but we are talking about GRAIN, i.e WHEAT (Through this may mean wheat and rice given the term "Grain" is used). How do you improve "Grain" quality with also increasing quantity?

One you realized the above, you quickly see the problem is that China's State Council is foreseeing a drop in grain production, either do to increase pollution or the increase level of drought in Western China (And by that I do NOT mean Tibet, Inner Mongolia or Xinjiang, but that part of what is some times called "China Proper" that borders those three areas).



Does China think the increase in drought conditions will lead to reduction in food production? The use of the term "Grain" (which may be a mis-translation but I am ignoring that possibility for if that means both Wheat AND rice the situation is that much worse), implies reduction in wheat production in North China Proper (North China is sometimes called "Wheat China" for it is to far north to grow Rice. Rice is the main food product in South China. sometimes called "Rice China" for that reason).

A 10% drop in a country that mostly feeds itself is NOT a good thing. China's population has stabilized but no one is saying the population is going to drop to match the drop in production.

My comment is directed at WHY Grain production will fall. Does the Chinese believe the drought in their western regions will expand? Will pollution make more of the "Grain" uneatable? This news release calls for more information, and we are not getting it.

[NickB79]

2. Sounds like they're covering their asses when climate change hits even harder

"Oh no, we PLANNED to cut grain production. No need to worry, it's all part of our master plan."

[OnlinePoker]

3. Population is expected to increase until 2030...

...according to UN and US Census bureau before beginning to drop. Unfortunately, the Chinese government has decided to relax their one child policy which could throw those numbers out the window. I know Canada exports a lot of grain there each year and expect the U.S. does the same.