So this is what the ice looks like

[XemaSab]

I think we're going to break the 2012 record with a bullet.

[FirstLight]

1. yikes

thanks Xemasab for always bringing these issues to light...though I know not many folks reply. I guess that sense of futility is just too overwhelming at times.

Is there a pic or link to compare years past? It would be amazing to see a slideshow of the past 10 years on the same day ...
did I say amazing? I meant depressing....

(but hey, let's build another pipeline!)

[OnlinePoker]

2. I don't think so

If you look at the comparison of last year to this, there was a lot less ice by this time last year (at least in extent). The quality of the ice this year may be sucky, but I think it will still come in higher than last. Of course the total ice area plunged in the last week by about 700k sq miles so I could be wrong.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=16&sy=2013

I had to use the 16th vice 17th because the 2013 image isn't in the compare file yet.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Very roughly, the darkest '100% cover' June area was what ended up with any ice at all by Sept

eg:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=09&sd=16&sy=2012

In fact, I'd say the end result was slightly smaller than the June 100% cover area. And this year's dark purple looks distinctly smaller than last year's. Though that might mean the widest route for the Northwest Passage, the McClure Strait, remains blocked this year, when it was open last year. But the coverage quite close to the pole looks very low.

[emmadoggy]

3. I almost posted this a day or two ago.

That big red stripe up the middle is unbelievable. I don't recall it ever having a pattern like that.

The slow start to the melt this year had me thinking that maybe we were going to stay well above last year's record, but after seeing this, I'm thinking we could still get very close. And if the right conditions come into play, we could easily surpass the record.