It’s hard to sea, but the globe is still warming

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http://grist.org/climate-energy/its-hard-to-sea-but-the-globe-is-still-warming/

?w=470&h=352

Evidence of climate change is all around us, manifesting in superstorms, wildfires, and melting ice. But temperature spikes recorded by weather stations over the past 15 years have been more muted than was previously the case, and lower than climate models had predicted.

That’s leading many people to wonder: Is global warming less of a threat than we had feared?

Climate scientists have been noting for years that the atmosphere is heating up less quickly than expected. Since last year, a growing number have been suggesting that we adjust our warming projections downward. Just last week, 17 scientists called for exactly that in a letter published in the journal Nature Geoscience; they wrote that their latest projections for rising temperatures remain “in agreement with earlier estimates, within the limits of uncertainty,” but at the lower end of that range.

In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected that global average temperatures would rise by between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius once carbon dioxide levels doubled. The Nature Geoscience letter suggests that the rise would probably be between 0.9 and 2 degrees C, most likely 1.3 degrees. That 1.3 figure is lower than earlier most-likely projections, such as the IPCC’s, which suggested that an increase between 1.4 and 1.6 degrees C was most probable.

[Socialistlemur]

1. Global warming processes require much more study

I have noticed a trend in recent months towards more honesty in reporting what is happening. The articles are still somewhat inclined to open with the typical panic mongering and hyped statements, but it's nice to see the trend.

I've been studying this subject for many years, and it seems to me that we have a long way to go before we can project what's going to happen within reason. For example, we know the warming trend stabilized about 12 years ago. At the same time the Antarctic surface ice cover has shown a slight increase. We observe a slight decrease in sea level. The vegetation cover had been increasing over the warming period, then it also stabilized and today we have about 5 % more vegetation cover than 30 years ago. We are also seeing odd patterns, for example a lot more rain in Spain caused by meandering of the jet stream.

There's also data showing the lower ocean is warming, and this tends to confirm a lot more heat transfer away from the atmosphere. In conclusion, the predictions were off, the warming trend isn't nearly as bad as predicted, and the key is to work towards more energy efficiency without all the hysteria and fear mongering we have seen in the past. It's also important not to relax and continue to improve the weather models, as well as research renewable technology, of course. Everything will eventually be needed because we are running out of oil.