Is Natural Gas the Next Bubble ? Has Fracking Promised More Than It Can Deliver?

[xchrom]

http://www.alternet.org/environment/natural-gas-next-bubble-has-fracking-promised-more-it-can-deliver



Coal and nuclear power industries in the United States have seen better days. The main culprit, energy industry analysts say, is the low cost of domestic natural gas, coupled with carbon-reducing regulations imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency and the efforts of environmental groups.

Instead of paying the high costs to upgrade coal-fired plants and repair aged nuclear facilities to meet environmental regulations, power companies across the country have been making the switch to natural gas.

The Los Angeles Water and Power Company just announced a plan to go coal-free within 12 years, selling one coal-fired plant in Arizona and converting another in Utah for natural gas production. Both plants currently power roughly 40 percent of Los Angeles. Last month, in a Clean Air Act settlement, American Electric Power agreed to stop burning coal at its power plants in Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky, and either make the switch to natural gas or retire the coal-fired units. Dozens of coal plants have closed in recent years under the same pressure, in large part, from cheap natural gas.

In February, Duke Energy decided it was more cost-effective to close its Crystal River nuclear plant in Florida and replace it with natural gas turbines than it would be to repair a $1.5 billion crack in its dome. Last year, Dominion Power opted to shutter its Kewaunee reactor in Wisconsin, citing low natural gas prices. Multiple decrepit U.S. nuclear power plants are being faced this same dilemma.

[Champion Jack]

1. Meanwhile, the drought continues

And Frackers are Moving into the largest food producing area in California.
Fracking uses huge amounts of water and permanently removes it from the natural cycle ,it can never be reused for anything.

[kristopher]

2. This isn't getting nearly the coverage it deserves.

When thinking about the question asked in the OP one should start with remembering that the entire fracking industry has policy roots wrapped around the efforts of Dick Cheney. He is responsible for structuring the completely opaque environment the industry operates within.

[NickB79]

3. Well, this line is pants-crappingly terrifying

A new study by independent geologist David Hughes supports prior findings by Berman and also the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which shows operators greatly overestimating actual well production on shale plays throughout the country, from a minimum of a 100 percent to as much as 400 to 500 percent. (A "shale play" is an area of land that companies believe might be productive.)

The Hughes report, published by the Post Carbon Institute in February, performed an analysis on 60,000 shale wells and every play in the U.S. and their numbers corresponded with findings by the USGS.

[NickB79]

4. This is even worse than I expected

Rogers and other energy analysts agree that the industry's plan to export natural gas overseas to countries like China, where they can sell it for much higher prices, will inevitably drive up domestic prices.

In her report, Rogers cites financial analyst calls going back to 2007 and 2008, which reveal this was the natural gas industry's plan all along, while it continues to sell American consumers and utility companies on becoming ever more dependent upon natural gas.

If successful, she said, "We will have affected essentially exactly the same scenario that we find ourselves in with crude oil now -- much more dependent and at much higher price."

We've been played for fools. Shale gas wasn't a "gateway to energy independence"; it was the first free taste from the drug dealer to get us hooked on their shit. And we took a shitload of great, big hits off of it.

[FBaggins]

5. That's hardly a secret... it's what they've been saying all along.

They wouldn't continue to expand their production ability at these prices unless they knew they were laying the infrastructure for larger volumes at higher prices.

But gas prices would still be lower than then-global-averages, since the cost to export/import is substantial (much larger than coal/oil).