Oops. 2% Increase In Bakken Rigs In January = 7% Drop In Output, But But Weather, Snow!

[hatrack]

BISMARCK – A winter storm and subzero temperatures contributed to a 4.2 percent drop in North Dakota’s oil production in January, the Department of Mineral Resources said Friday.

The state produced an average of 738,022 barrels per day in January, according to preliminary figures from the department, down from the record high of 770,111 barrels per day produced in December.

“That is a very significant drop in production,” said Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources.

Helms said he anticipates that the state’s monthly oil production numbers will continue to go up and down through May. February was a strong month, but recent winter storms will likely mean a drop in March production, Helms said.

The month of May will bring spring road restrictions that in some counties may severely restrict truck transportation, Helms said.

EDIT

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/393303/group/homepage/

EDIT

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf

AAAAAAAAAAnd some interesting commentary about decline curves at the Oil Drum:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9893#comments_top - about 1/4 of the way down the thread.

[earthside]

1. Isn't this ironclad proof of Peak Oil?

That Bakkan is a Red Queen ... running faster and faster just to stay in the same place?

If plays like Bakkan are so fecund that they are going to allow the U.S. to cease importing foreign oil by 2050, then why must more drilling take place all of the time in order to maintain current levels of production?

Just like with tar sands, it looks to me like relying on unconventional production techniques, as employed in North Dakota, to supply us with petroleum is unquestionable proof of the rightness of the predictions that Peak Oil has presented, i.e., that the era of cheap easy-to-produce oil is over.

[Champion Jack]

2. Bubble, bubble, toil and frack trouble

[pscot]

3. The comment threads at TOD

attract people who actually know what they're talking about. It's an internet anomaly, for sure.

[hatrack]

4. Probably the best single energy site I know

Not that I've visited all of them, but TOD is just outstanding.

[XemaSab]

5. You saw that the NSIDC linked to Neven's blog?

I mean, damn.

[hatrack]

7. Well, only so many scientists, only so many hours in the day . . .

[FBaggins]

8. Worth pointing out that a little more than a year later...

... Bakken production has exceeded 1 Million bpd.

AAAAAAAAAAnd some interesting commentary about decline curves at the Oil Drum:

Aaaand... another example (from 2008) of why TOD had to shut down:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868

Looking at future production another way, the recent peak in production has been 75,000 barrels of oil per day (discussed in more detail below). Even if operators are able to triple this amount, the resulting production of 225,000 barrels a day (which would be a considerable challenge), will amount to only about 1.1% of US oil consumption, assuming the US uses about 20.7 barrels of oil a day, based on EIA data.

If we can reach 225,000 barrels of oil per day, the history of Bakken suggest this level would be short-lived - the peak production will probably last for a year or less - because as we shall see below, total Bakken production can be expected to decline to 50% or less of its peak rate within a few years, because of the steep decline rate of individual wells.

...snip...

3. Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.