USDA Study Projects Massive Changes In US Agricultural & Forest Output By Mid-Century

[hatrack]

EDIT

For agriculture, the USDA’s analysis predicts that climate change will end a 150-year period of relatively stable climate that has contributed to the industry’s “remarkable capacity to adapt to a wide diversity of growing conditions and dynamic social and economic changes.”

By mid-century, temperatures will rise between 1.8°F and 5.4°F and yields of major crops will begin to decline. Shifting rain and snowfall patterns will also work to reduce crop productivity, outweighing any benefit that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might have on plant growth.

Jerry Hatfield, director of USDA’s National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, said that climate change could mean that a staple crop like corn spends more growing days in temperatures outside the range that produces optimal yields.

And perennial crops like cherries may have a harder time as warming reduces the number of cold winter days the plants need to experience to properly flower and set fruit once spring comes. “Cherries need 1,000 hours of temperature below 43 degrees Fahrenheit,” Hatfield said. “If those hours now go from 1,000 to 500 in a season because of warming at a certain location, cherry production is going to be greatly affected.”

EDIT

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-set-to-batter-u.s.-agriculture-forests-15564?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+climatecentral%2FdjOO+Climate+Central+-+Full+Feed

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. I stole your headline and tweeted this

Their headline was blah..

Kick!

[DreamGypsy]

2. For those interested in more details, the reports are available here...

...as pdfs:

Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector

[link:http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/CC%20and%20Agriculture%20Report%20%2802-04-2013%29b.pdf|
Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation]

For anyone else specifically interested in blueberries or other specialty crops, the Ag report has interesting information:

Of the many perennial specialty crops produced in the United States, apple, blueberry, cherry, citrus, grape, peach, pear, raspberry, and red maple were selected as representative perennial nursery and ornamental crops. Critical temperature and the literature for use by crop/climate modelers and policy makers in assessing future climate change effects. The response of these crops to a proposed doubling of atmospheric CO2 is evaluated from the scientific literature in Tables 5.7, 5.8, 5.9.

I attempted pasting some sample data from the tables, but the formatting out of Acrobat is hopeless here. If you're interested, check out the full doc.